[Albion] league table looking scary - we still have to play 7 of of top 8!

[Ninja Elephant]

Some of us paid attention to the whole fixture list at the start of the season, so we've known this run is to come.

Strap in, and enjoy it!

 

[saafend_seagull]

Arsenal, Leicester, spurs, at home - 2 points

Palace, Swansea, stoke, Huddersfield, burnley - 9 points

Liverpool, Man U, Man c - 0 points

38 points, touch and go with our borderline GD.

We need west ham, watford and Bournemouth to pull away and beat everyone.


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[A1X]

Quick update on the mini-league of relegation teams vs the big 6

Watford - 8 (8)
Swansea - 7 (9)
Bournemouth - 6 (9)
West Ham - 5 (7)
Stoke - 4 (8)
Palace - 4 (8)
Huddersfield - 3 (8)
West Brom - 3 (8)
Southampton - 3 (8)
Newcastle - 1 (7)
Brighton - 0 (7)

 

[Sussex Nomad]

Absolutely no way 39 points will be the cut off this season.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

So whilst the fantastic win and the way we achieved it against West Ham gave us hope, i have calculated that we still have to play 7 of the top 8 yet (except chelsea) and in the first half of the season took ZERO points from any of them.

Dear GOD! Why weren't we told SOONER?

 

[saafend_seagull]

Absolutely no way 39 points will be the cut off this season.

It will be close, 38 will be needed for survival should the average points of bottom teams be the same as last year for the last 12 games.

It is currently forecasted as 35 points for fourth bottom, the same point last year the forecast was to have 32.1 points to be safe and hull ended up with 34 points.

Adding 1.9 points into the total means 37 points would be what third bottom has, so 38 points will be needed (or 37 if you have a good GD).

We need 11 points.




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[perseus]

....You might have to put Man City in that mix as well.

That's what I was thinking. How are Man City gonna fit the game against us in with their crowded fixture list?

 

[GT49er]

That's what I was thinking. How are Man City gonna fit the game against us in with their crowded fixture list?

Perhaps we could just offer to share the points with them?

 

[perseus]

Perhaps we could just offer to share the points with them?

17/18 April after Palace (A) I hope we get 36 pts by then: it might not even be enough?

last 5 could be

Man C (A)
Spurs (H)
Burnley (A)
Man U (H)
Liverpool (A)

 

[The_Viper]

If you could guarantee me that we would win those four matches and not earn another point this season I'd bite your hand off without a moment's hesitation.

Me too.

 

[GreersElbow]

Attempted to my own prediction based on form of last 6 matches to give an expected PPG for the remaining games. Obviously the flaw is the assumption that past is replicated, so it's clearly not the most accurate, I would not expect Swansea to be so high and Burnley so low. I expect Palace to sink a little but stay out of the bottom 3. But this is what I get:




Oh I know GD differences for Everton, Newcastle and us is out of order. Excel's lookup function just wouldn't work for me....

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

Attempted to my own prediction based on form of last 6 matches to give an expected PPG for the remaining games. Obviously the flaw is the assumption that past is replicated, so it's clearly not the most accurate, I would not expect Swansea to be so high and Burnley so low. I expect Palace to sink a little but stay out of the bottom 3. But this is what I get:


View attachment 94008

Oh I know GD differences for Everton, Newcastle and us is out of order. Excel's lookup function just wouldn't work for me....

You reckon Swansea are going to take 22 points from their last 12 games ... and Hudders only 2? I'm pretty confident that's not going to be anywhere close ...

 

[Stat Brother]

Here are some facts to balance out the OP's betwetting:

West Brom - bottom, 7 points adrift of us. Need 7 points more than us in 12 games.
Huddersfield - 3 points adrift of us and a massive goal difference behind. Their fans don't know where their next win is coming from. In-form Bournemouth for them next.
Stoke - exactly the same as Huddersfield in every way.
Swansea - 3 points adrift of us. Assuming we both draw our next game, if we beat them in a couple of weeks then there is no way they are overhauling us IMO, they'd be 6 behind with 10 to play.
Newcastle - 2 points behind us, basket case club and on the slide.
Southampton - 7 of their remaining 12 games are away, and of their 5 home games they have Liverpool (up next), Chelsea and Manchester City.
The NigeIs - they have a decent first XI under normal circumstances but an amusingly crippling injury list at the moment has changed all that, and with Spurs, Man Utd and Chelsea in their next 4 games they could easily be back in the drop zone before March is out.

The only other two teams in any real danger are ourselves and West Ham. Clearly both could yet go down but could just as easily finish 9th or 10th (top half). West Ham have players returning from injury, we have two new goalscorers in a position we were lightest in strength. On balance, I don't think there is likely to be any value in a bet on Albion getting relegated.

Nice.

Although I'll hazard a guess I know exactly where Stoke fans think their next 3 points are coming from.
Bringing back a point would be great but all 3 would not only be massive for us but an absolute hammer blow for them.

 

[GreersElbow]

You reckon Swansea are going to take 22 points from their last 12 games ... and Hudders only 2? I'm pretty confident that's not going to be anywhere close ...

Did you even read my comments on it. I guess it's easier to ignore what I say so when "it's not anywhere close" you can call it "correct".

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

Did you even read my comments on it. I guess it's easier to ignore what I say so when "it's not anywhere close" you can call it "correct".

Yes, I did read your comments and acknowledge that you've said it's a flawed approach, some bits won't be accurate and Swansea won't be that high. I'm agreeing with you on that one and also saying I think Hudds will manage more than 26 points. I also think given the tight nature of the bunching over such a small number of points, and with every side having plenty of games against each other it'll be much tighter than a seven point gap to the bottom three.
And I promise I won't come on and say "I told you so"

 

[Simster]

Did you even read my comments on it. I guess it's easier to ignore what I say so when "it's not anywhere close" you can call it "correct".

But you posted a spreadsheet with admittedly flawed assumptions. In fact, they are totally absurd assumptions. As [MENTION=14016]The Sock of Poskett[/MENTION] pointed out, Huddersfield WON'T get only 2 more points and Swansea WON'T get anything like 22.

So why bother posting it in the first place?

 

[GreersElbow]

So why bother posting it in the first place?

I guess you asked the same when others posted there's based on PPG, which would doesn't say anything other than what the current table says.

"Totally absurd" - really, I guess the entire concept of expected value is completely absurd.

It's also interesting how you're specifically talking about Swansea and Huddersfield. Not the remaining elements of the table. Anything else you want to add?

 

[Simster]

I guess you asked the same when others posted there's based on PPG, which would doesn't say anything other than what the current table says.

"Totally absurd" - really, I guess the entire concept of expected value is completely absurd.

It's also interesting how you're specifically talking about Swansea and Huddersfield. Not the remaining elements of the table. Anything else you want to add?

Are you saying that your Swansea & Huddersfield predictions aren't "Totally absurd"?

I don't mean to pick on you as such, just that you getting stroppy towards [MENTION=14016]The Sock of Poskett[/MENTION] made me chuckle when all he'd done was post the two obvious MASSIVE flaws in your post. Your "comments on it" are neither here nor there - you posted a completely shit spreadsheet.

 

[perseus]

17/18 April after Palace (A) I hope we get 36 pts by then: it might not even be enough?

last 5 could be

Man C (A)
Spurs (H)
Burnley (A)
Man U (H)
Liverpool (A)

Of course, 17/18 April is only a few days before the semi-final.

on 17 March, Swansea v So'ton will most likely be postponed as well. That will have an even bigger bearing on who goes down.

With luck Man City may already be Champions.

I think the quality of opposition has more bearing on results than current form. Clever people with too much time could devise a computer analysis. Meanwhile:

PREDICTOR
http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/