[Albion] league table looking scary - we still have to play 7 of of top 8!

[Simster]

Here are some facts to balance out the OP's betwetting:

West Brom - bottom, 7 points adrift of us. Need 7 points more than us in 12 games.
Huddersfield - 3 points adrift of us and a massive goal difference behind. Their fans don't know where their next win is coming from. In-form Bournemouth for them next.
Stoke - exactly the same as Huddersfield in every way.
Swansea - 3 points adrift of us. Assuming we both draw our next game, if we beat them in a couple of weeks then there is no way they are overhauling us IMO, they'd be 6 behind with 10 to play.
Newcastle - 2 points behind us, basket case club and on the slide.
Southampton - 7 of their remaining 12 games are away, and of their 5 home games they have Liverpool (up next), Chelsea and Manchester City.
The NigeIs - they have a decent first XI under normal circumstances but an amusingly crippling injury list at the moment has changed all that, and with Spurs, Man Utd and Chelsea in their next 4 games they could easily be back in the drop zone before March is out.

The only other two teams in any real danger are ourselves and West Ham. Clearly both could yet go down but could just as easily finish 9th or 10th (top half). West Ham have players returning from injury, we have two new goalscorers in a position we were lightest in strength. On balance, I don't think there is likely to be any value in a bet on Albion getting relegated.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Don't forget that before we played at West Brom we were 7 points ahead of WBA.

After losing to them and being crushed by Chelsea we are now....

... 7 points ahead of them.


The gap hasn't changed. If we maintain the gap between us and 3 of the teams below us then party time, happy days.

 

[LVGull]

So whilst the fantastic win and the way we achieved it against West Ham gave us hope, i have calculated that we still have to play 7 of the top 8 yet (except chelsea) and in the first half of the season took ZERO points from any of them. This means even IF we can win our other games (not really likely) against Stoke, Swansea, Huddersfield and Palace that would leave us precariously on 39 points. Just where are the other points coming from?

Please do not be scared.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

We were 8th at one point and I don't think many other teams were scared of playing us ....

 

[Pantani]

I've been 36 points for sometime, but I think that needs revising up with the up turn in form of some sides, and all but one team on less than 24 with 12 to play. 1 ppg will see those teams finish on 36 which equates to 3 wins, 3 draws, can see Swansea, Huddersfield, and Stoke achieving that, and perhaps Newcastle putting them on 37 – they can still lose half their fixtures. Lot still to happen, but I'm revising my target up to 38 at least...

Interesting. I have heard a lot about the speculative number of points needed from a lot of people on here. Not sure I buy this improved form thing though. Every team at some point has had a decent run of results, so I really cannot see that much variance from what has gone before occurring over a 12 game period. So I thought I would have a look at what the current projection is.



Projection is going at the current PPG for each team. 1 PPG I thought was a reasonable thing to assume that all teams are capable of, and likely to achieve. 1.2 PPG is better than any of this bottom 12 have achieved thus far. 1.5 PPG is stellar form that only the top 7 have achieved (or bettered) thus far, so in my opinion pretty unlikely over a twelve game period.

My conclusion from all this is that a point a game from here on is more than enough for us.

 

[Billy in Bristol]

Four more wins...that is all we need.

 

[GreersElbow]

I think we could be a surprise package to be fair. We had a pretty solid transfer window: hitting the targets we needed. Schelotto fitting in nicely, Izquierdo looks to be bringing his best, Murray banging them in for fun with Ulloa and Lacadia to settle and make their mark.

Exciting run in.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

We'll be fine, just as long as opera woman stays away

 

[Pantani]

OK, so by my calculations we have the third most difficult run in. Most notable is that Huddersfield have a series of very winnable home games, so not quite as dead and buried as I had previously thought. Numbers are the points per game that we are facing. These numbers do not take in to account how good each team actually is home or away.

Southampton 18.26
West Ham 18.01
Brighton 17.71
Stoke 17.18
Newcastle 17.01
Watford 16.94
West Brom 16.7
Crystal Palace 16.62
Swansea 16.32
Huddersfield 15.62
Everton 15.24
Bournemouth 15.16

 

[chucky1973]

most teams have to play teams in the top 7 and then crucial games against teams around them, so will drop points,

Long way to go and the good thing is we have Only Liverpool away (also Burnley, but not counting them a big side) all the rest are at home where we do if we set up right play well and are tough to beat, so I am hopeful of some points in those games.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

I've always thought we'd get a surprise win against one of the big boys, not sure which one. I think we'll still go down, though, but I've always felt that.

 

[Lifelong Supporter]

most teams have to play teams in the top 7 and then crucial games against teams around them, so will drop points,

Long way to go and the good thing is we have Only Liverpool away (also Burnley, but not counting them a big side) all the rest are at home where we do if we set up right play well and are tough to beat, so I am hopeful of some points in those games.

Yes I do not see us setting up as 3 5 2 again and I see Bruno coming back in for the finish.

 

[DavidRyder]

BRING THEM ON!!!



(have they gone yet...?)

 

[Ripon Gull]

Surely if one team is cast away at the foot of the table with far less points than the others, then the points total required to stay up is higher. That hasn't happened this season, so the minimum number of points will be quite low I think. We currently have 27 points. With the recent squad additions and upturn in form, anyone seriously doubting that we'll gain at least 10 more points is pessimistic in the extreme and not doing the cause any good. Come on folks, keep the faith!

 

[GT49er]

Here are some facts to balance out the OP's betwetting:

West Brom - bottom, 7 points adrift of us. Need 7 points more than us in 12 games.
Huddersfield - 3 points adrift of us and a massive goal difference behind. Their fans don't know where their next win is coming from. In-form Bournemouth for them next.
Stoke - exactly the same as Huddersfield in every way.
Swansea - 3 points adrift of us. Assuming we both draw our next game, if we beat them in a couple of weeks then there is no way they are overhauling us IMO, they'd be 6 behind with 10 to play.
Newcastle - 2 points behind us, basket case club and on the slide.
Southampton - 7 of their remaining 12 games are away, and of their 5 home games they have Liverpool (up next), Chelsea and Manchester City.
The NigeIs - they have a decent first XI under normal circumstances but an amusingly crippling injury list at the moment has changed all that, and with Spurs, Man Utd and Chelsea in their next 4 games they could easily be back in the drop zone before March is out.

The only other two teams in any real danger are ourselves and West Ham. Clearly both could yet go down but could just as easily finish 9th or 10th (top half). West Ham have players returning from injury, we have two new goalscorers in a position we were lightest in strength. On balance, I don't think there is likely to be any value in a bet on Albion getting relegated.

..............and of course, staying ahead with a seven point lead with three to play was an absolute nailed on certainty last season.......







.......oh!

 

[FIVESTEPS]

Fixtures include the bottom 4 teams on current form(last six played).Huddersfield are bottom with 1point,surprisingly Burnley are next with 3 points and no wins followed by Everton and Stoke with 4 points and 1 win apiece.Although 3 of the games are away from home these plus Swansea,Palace and Leicester must give us a good chance of avoiding the drop.

 

[Simster]

..............and of course, staying ahead with a seven point lead with three to play was an absolute nailed on certainty last season.......







.......oh!

I was simply making the case that other clubs have their own reasons for being nervous, not that we're safe. We're not, it's just that nor are 11 other clubs!

 

[Mellotron]

Here are some facts to balance out the OP's betwetting:

West Brom - bottom, 7 points adrift of us. Need 7 points more than us in 12 games.
Huddersfield - 3 points adrift of us and a massive goal difference behind. Their fans don't know where their next win is coming from. In-form Bournemouth for them next.
Stoke - exactly the same as Huddersfield in every way.
Swansea - 3 points adrift of us. Assuming we both draw our next game, if we beat them in a couple of weeks then there is no way they are overhauling us IMO, they'd be 6 behind with 10 to play.
Newcastle - 2 points behind us, basket case club and on the slide.
Southampton - 7 of their remaining 12 games are away, and of their 5 home games they have Liverpool (up next), Chelsea and Manchester City.
The NigeIs - they have a decent first XI under normal circumstances but an amusingly crippling injury list at the moment has changed all that, and with Spurs, Man Utd and Chelsea in their next 4 games they could easily be back in the drop zone before March is out.

The only other two teams in any real danger are ourselves and West Ham. Clearly both could yet go down but could just as easily finish 9th or 10th (top half). West Ham have players returning from injury, we have two new goalscorers in a position we were lightest in strength. On balance, I don't think there is likely to be any value in a bet on Albion getting relegated.

I like this. Thank you.

 

[Mellotron]

..............and of course, staying ahead with a seven point lead with three to play was an absolute nailed on certainty last season.......







.......oh!

Difference being that hopefully our centre back partnership won't be on a 72-hour bender with 3 games still to go this time!

 

[Machiavelli]

OK, so by my calculations we have the third most difficult run in. Most notable is that Huddersfield have a series of very winnable home games, so not quite as dead and buried as I had previously thought. Numbers are the points per game that we are facing. These numbers do not take in to account how good each team actually is home or away.

Southampton 18.26
West Ham 18.01
Brighton 17.71
Stoke 17.18
Newcastle 17.01
Watford 16.94
West Brom 16.7
Crystal Palace 16.62
Swansea 16.32
Huddersfield 15.62
Everton 15.24
Bournemouth 15.16

Thank you for imparting some calm into this discussion, both with this post, and even more, post 45