Labour win by election, Cameron receives a message

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Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,299
Back in Sussex
Is the message to Cameron: "Please don't try and fix the economy, allow it to continue on the previous path to ruin. Thanks." ?
 




BLOCK F

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,723
Is the message to Cameron: "Please don't try and fix the economy, allow it to continue on the previous path to ruin. Thanks." ?

Correct.Our dear Leftie friends really do live in a fantasy world most of the time!
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,952
Surrey
Is the message to Cameron: "Please don't try and fix the economy, allow it to continue on the previous path to ruin. Thanks." ?
Or perhaps it is "If you're going to implement cuts, how about NOT slashing 17% of Manchester's public sector workforce, and instead sharing out the misery throughout the country. Because this smacks of penalising traditional Labour voters more than anyone else"
 


ROSM

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2005
6,776
Just far enough away from LDC
Is the message to Cameron: "Please don't try and fix the economy, allow it to continue on the previous path to ruin. Thanks." ?

You're a cheeky scamp Bozza. See you've only caught one so far
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,952
Surrey
Correct.Our dear Leftie friends really do live in a fantasy world most of the time!
They don't though, they just happen to believe it is possible to spend your way out of recession which in their view is what happened the last time the public deficit was as big as it is now (as a percentage of GDP, not in absolute terms).

And in fairness, there was evidence that it might have been working before Labour got booted out. On the other hand, Ireland was held up as a flagship nation by cutting it's public sector without much damage, and now look at it. Completely f***ed.
 




ROSM

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2005
6,776
Just far enough away from LDC
They don't though, they just happen to believe it is possible to spend your way out of recession which in their view is what happened the last time the public deficit was as big as it is now (as a percentage of GDP, not in absolute terms).

And in fairness, there was evidence that it might have been working before Labour got booted out. On the other hand, Ireland was held up as a flagship nation by cutting it's public sector without much damage, and now look at it. Completely f***ed.

Trying to explain to those who've bought the 'it's much worse than we thought, we were under pressure from the markets and ratings agencies, the labour plan wasn't working' messages is ultimately a futile exercise. We've had so many threads on this that have had credible and well thought out posts on both sides debating this point.

The main difference between the two parties was the direction and timing of cuts. Far be it for me to question whether the decisions being taken currently are driven by ideology.
 




brightonlass2009

Sports sports sports!
Completely meaningless. Labour win a traditional labour seat, big wow.

Not really. This was actually quite an important by-election, in the sense that the vote was very close in May and many believed that it was due to the election fraud that was committed that the Liberal Democrat candidate didn't win.
The swing in that election was 5.1% to the Lib Dems. The swing back to Labour in this election was 4.9%. Essentially wiped out. The Liberal Democrats lost around 3,000 votes and the Conservatives lost 7,000 votes. Admittedly this wasn't because they went to the Labour candidate, but because their supporters didn't bother to come out, probably because they have lost faith in the current Government.
So really it isn't meaningless, because if an election is called anytime soon due to the breakdown of the coalition, we could be seeing more of this.
 




ROSM

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2005
6,776
Just far enough away from LDC
My concern about a coalition collapse is that Milliband isn't yet ready to provide a meaningful manifesto (if indeed he ever will). he's planning on 2-3 years before he'll need to. In the same way as a snap election from Gordon Brown would have caught Cameron and the conservatives napping as Cameron hadn't formed coherent policy at that stage.
 


Danny-Boy

Banned
Apr 21, 2009
5,579
The Coast
Not really. This was a by-election held after the Labour MP was disqualified for electoral fraud - that should have counted heavily against Labour, particularly in a week that's seen another Labour MP resign after a fraud conviction. You'd normally expect Labour to lose the seat in those circumstances so it's a sign that the Labour vote is holding up pretty well and is certainly far from meaningless - although it's not especially astonishing either.

The more interesting statistic is the collapse of the Tory vote: was that due to dissatisfaction with the Tories or was it due to Tory supporters propping up the Lib Dem vote. We won't really see that until there's a by-election in a Tory-held seat, or one where they came second.

What the result WILL do is shore up Miliband (Ed)'s position which as a Lib Dem I think may actually help us in the long run.

And there will be further Labour-held by-elections to come, we know that. The interesting thing would be if there became a vacancy in a Lib Dem seat....
 


ROKERITE

Active member
Dec 30, 2007
723
Not really. This was actually quite an important by-election, in the sense that the vote was very close in May and many believed that it was due to the election fraud that was committed that the Liberal Democrat candidate didn't win.
The swing in that election was 5.1% to the Lib Dems. The swing back to Labour in this election was 4.9%. Essentially wiped out. The Liberal Democrats lost around 3,000 votes and the Conservatives lost 7,000 votes. Admittedly this wasn't because they went to the Labour candidate, but because their supporters didn't bother to come out, probably because they have lost faith in the current Government.
So really it isn't meaningless, because if an election is called anytime soon due to the breakdown of the coalition, we could be seeing more of this.

I expected Labour to win by far more and the LibDem vote to collapse. Even by the standards of by-elections early in the life of a government this one was particularly meaningless and irrelevant. The Coalition is a five year plan and we're about eight months in. It's going to be hard for the Conservative/LibDems to clear up the mess the socialists left behind by 2015, but there's not much to be deduced from any by-election in the next three and a half years, I'd have thought.
 




Danny-Boy

Banned
Apr 21, 2009
5,579
The Coast
I expected Labour to win by far more and the LibDem vote to collapse. Even by the standards of by-elections early in the life of a government this one was particularly meaningless and irrelevant. The Coalition is a five year plan and we're about eight months in. It's going to be hard for the Conservative/LibDems to clear up the mess the socialists left behind by 2015, but there's not much to be deduced from any by-election in the next three and a half years, I'd have thought.

Certainly the media led by that fat Scottish slob Andrew (Baked potato-head) Neil have been almost hysterical in forecasting the imminent total collapse of the Lib Dem party. Last night's performance from the Scottish nonce was particularly infuriating.

If I see him in the street he will get a Glasgie kiss if I can get close enough.
 




Mr Burns

New member
Aug 25, 2003
5,915
Springfield
Take note Tories. You are messing it up
Saying the Tories are makin a mess of it, is like saying Roy Hodgson or Kenny Dalglish is messing up Liverpool. It's been f***ed for years, you can't blame the new bloke for the mess left behind by the previous twat.
 




BLOCK F

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,723
They don't though, they just happen to believe it is possible to spend your way out of recession which in their view is what happened the last time the public deficit was as big as it is now (as a percentage of GDP, not in absolute terms).

And in fairness, there was evidence that it might have been working before Labour got booted out. On the other hand, Ireland was held up as a flagship nation by cutting it's public sector without much damage, and now look at it. Completely f***ed.

Hi Simster,you and I rarely agree,but I do fell strongly that Labour must not be let near the seat of power for a long time.For all their worthy and idealistic(in believers eyes!) thoughts,they are just incapable of spending only what can be afforded.It always ends in tears and the 'nasty'Tories have to sort it out.
Anyway,I was up in Reigate for a brief time last week;it seems so built up and busy compared to when we lived there 10 years ago!
Best wishes.
 


ROSM

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2005
6,776
Just far enough away from LDC
Hi Simster,you and I rarely agree,but I do fell strongly that Labour must not be let near the seat of power for a long time.For all their worthy and idealistic(in believers eyes!) thoughts,they are just incapable of spending only what can be afforded.It always ends in tears and the 'nasty'Tories have to sort it out.
Best wishes.

Well there was a thread last week which covered some evidence that would question just how accurate your perception is and how much of their public spending was required to correct lack of investment in public services in the previous 13years. As I said though, I dont expect this to change your mind
 


Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,952
Surrey
Hi Simster,you and I rarely agree,but I do fell strongly that Labour must not be let near the seat of power for a long time.For all their worthy and idealistic(in believers eyes!) thoughts,they are just incapable of spending only what can be afforded.It always ends in tears and the 'nasty'Tories have to sort it out.
Anyway,I was up in Reigate for a brief time last week;it seems so built up and busy compared to when we lived there 10 years ago!
Best wishes.
Greetings BLOCKF. It's only politics we rarely agree upon, I trust. :thumbsup: Anyway, it's not that they are "incapable" at all, it is a fundamental difference in ideology. Left wing economic thinking has always proposed that spending encourages job creation and it is better to pay someone for digging a hole and filling it up again than to pay benefits for unemployment. The reason is that at least they then have money in their pockets to prop up the economy of their local community.

Personally, I can see some merit in this. I can also see that wreckless spending is dangerous - IMO there is nothing wrong with borrowing as long as you are in control of it. Personally, I had the feeling that the level of borrowing was only beginning to get too high at which point you have to wonder how the money is going to be paid back. But to clarify, my opinion is that at a macro level this really is no worse than a government absolutely decimating basic services and then shrugging and pointing to a large debt left by the previous lot as the reason for it. I don't want education spending to be as low as it was in the '80s while the education levels of the kids of these millionaires running the show remain absolutely unchanged. The other point is that you can't just push up spending and expect services to resume at their previous high level. If you cut beyond the fat and into the muscle, you run into massive problems. It's a massive sacrifice for little return - just look at Ireland.

You'd love Reigate. The MP is a twat called CRISPIN who does f*** all for the community but gets elected time and again because he wears a blue rosette, and recently waited until two weeks after the election to announce he was a gayer. Funny that. I wish the Tories would introduce a LOCAL candidate who gave a shit, FFS.
 


severnside gull

Well-known member
May 16, 2007
24,827
By the seaside in West Somerset
Death knell for the Lib-Dems who should have made a showing - they are the scapegoats of the coalition with their integrity disappearing down the pan faster than Chappers' piss
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,019
Admittedly this wasn't because they went to the Labour candidate, but because their supporters didn't bother to come out, probably because they have lost faith in the current Government.
So really it isn't meaningless, because if an election is called anytime soon due to the breakdown of the coalition, we could be seeing more of this.

if there were a general election you would see the turnout rise significantly. the fact that Labour gained so little in terms of actual votes shows there was no protest against the government. someone said its a no score draw, that about sums it up.
 


Danny-Boy

Banned
Apr 21, 2009
5,579
The Coast
:
Greetings BLOCKF.

You'd love Reigate. The MP is a twat called CRISPIN who does f*** all for the community but gets elected time and again because he wears a blue rosette, and recently waited until two weeks after the election to announce he was a gayer. Funny that. I wish the Tories would introduce a LOCAL candidate who gave a shit, FFS.

Isn't he the minister for prisons now? Must be fun when they show him around, do they give him some soap to drop in the showers? whistle:
 


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