[Politics] Labour Party meltdown incoming.......

[Pavilionaire]

I expect Labour to win the Commons vote, for Winter Fuel Payments to be scrapped and for everybody to move on. However, Labour's PR chief needs sacking.

To my mind, Labour should have had their Budget at the earliest opportunity, which would have been c. 12/13 September. They could have kept schtum until then, unleashed all the pain and taken all the negativity in one hit. But at least there would have been certainty moving forward, businesses, investors and the housing market could start planning and party conference could take the new plans into account and develop policy.

Instead, we've had Starmer's speech saying there will be great pain, then we've had this Winter Fuel Payment story, and we still have to wait another 7 weeks before the actual Budget.

This is spreading the pain and negativity over an extended period, one in which 5 Tory candidates for the leadership can each have a pop at Labour and magnify the Opposition response. In addition, Labour will be trying to end the public sector strikes with wage hikes but no one knows where the money is coming from, fanning the flames of uncertainty.

Labour have created a economic policy vacuum and it is not helping them. Maybe they should get Mandelson and Alistair Campbell back to sort this PR shitshow out?

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I expect Labour to win the Commons vote, for Winter Fuel Payments to be scrapped and for everybody to move on. However, Labour's PR chief needs sacking.

To my mind, Labour should have had their Budget at the earliest opportunity, which would have been c. 12/13 September. They could have kept schtum until then, unleashed all the pain and taken all the negativity in one hit. But at least there would have been certainty moving forward, businesses, investors and the housing market could start planning and party conference could take the new plans into account and develop policy.

Instead, we've had Starmer's speech saying there will be great pain, then we've had this Winter Fuel Payment story, and we still have to wait another 7 weeks before the actual Budget.

This is spreading the pain and negativity over an extended period, one in which 5 Tory candidates for the leadership can each have a pop at Labour and magnify the Opposition response. In addition, Labour will be trying to end the public sector strikes with wage hikes but no one knows where the money is coming from, fanning the flames of uncertainty.

Labour have created a economic policy vacuum and it is not helping them. Maybe they should get Mandelson and Alistair Campbell back to sort this PR shitshow out?

Yep - I don't disagree.
It seems Starmer is prepared to take the PR hit to crack on with what he feels are priority.
He's left himself wide-open for swipes from the left and right of the political spectrum.

Let's be honest - whoever won the election was going to be in the shit as soon as they took office.
He's got 4 years to make a positive change on the economic forecasts for the country.

If he doesn't he's toast, regardless of what the Daily Mail/Mirror/Sun/Telegraph/Rest is Politics/News Agents/ GB News et al, think about each policy decision.

 

[Bozza]

We will agree to disagree and that's fine. Earlier in the thread I was discussing this with two mates and I'm sure we'd put the same views over if we were talking over a pint.

My point, really is that there is a black hole to fix AND public services (e.g. NHS, Education, Transport) that are in parlous states following Tory neglect, Brexit and the pandemic. Everyone agrees they need fixing but no one wants THEIR money to pay for it. That simply isn't going to work. And, as a follow on, it's perfectly possible that the budget will hit my family too and I'm fine with that if it fixes those issues and leads to sustainable growth. I'd rather that than pay for Boris's wine cellar.

Of course.

But I'm not entirely sure why the first port of call to start putting things right is a group of the most vulnerable in our society.

And that's not millionaires, of course, but those who sit just above the qualifiction line for pension credits. Those people will have very modest pensions and, because these thngs are often linked, little or no savings.

Of course the payment should not be universally available, but surely there is a better way than scrapping it at the level decided? Tiers or tapering could work. As it is a lot of elderly people, who aren't weatlhy by any measure, are going to be shit-scared to put their heating on this winter, and that is utterly deplorable.

 

[BLOCK F]

We will agree to disagree and that's fine. Earlier in the thread I was discussing this with two mates and I'm sure we'd put the same views over if we were talking over a pint.

My point, really is that there is a black hole to fix AND public services (e.g. NHS, Education, Transport) that are in parlous states following Tory neglect, Brexit and the pandemic. Everyone agrees they need fixing but no one wants THEIR money to pay for it. That simply isn't going to work. And, as a follow on, it's perfectly possible that the budget will hit my family too and I'm fine with that if it fixes those issues and leads to sustainable growth. I'd rather that than pay for Boris's wine cellar.

Bozza’s reply to you saves me having to reply.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Starmer has spent a lot of time since the election on a diplomatic charm offensive to "reset" our relationship with our EU partners.

Indeed, he has already met the German Chancellor 5 times in 2 months. You wonder how much time is spent discussing Ukraine and how much on the damage caused by Brexit?

 

[beorhthelm]

Read the Full Fact link I supplied which will tell you that's not the case.

i did when checking on the points forming the black hole. they cite the IFS with an estimated 10-20bn hole by end of the parliament, which is largely made from the pay awards. there was no expectation of these large pay awards in the 2021 spending review, because there was underestimated forecast of inflation, and more recently no intention to follow the pay recommendations. that puts it down to policy decisions.

 

[Weststander]

I expect Labour to win the Commons vote, for Winter Fuel Payments to be scrapped and for everybody to move on. However, Labour's PR chief needs sacking.

To my mind, Labour should have had their Budget at the earliest opportunity, which would have been c. 12/13 September. They could have kept schtum until then, unleashed all the pain and taken all the negativity in one hit. But at least there would have been certainty moving forward, businesses, investors and the housing market could start planning and party conference could take the new plans into account and develop policy.

Instead, we've had Starmer's speech saying there will be great pain, then we've had this Winter Fuel Payment story, and we still have to wait another 7 weeks before the actual Budget.

This is spreading the pain and negativity over an extended period, one in which 5 Tory candidates for the leadership can each have a pop at Labour and magnify the Opposition response. In addition, Labour will be trying to end the public sector strikes with wage hikes but no one knows where the money is coming from, fanning the flames of uncertainty.

Labour have created a economic policy vacuum and it is not helping them. Maybe they should get Mandelson and Alistair Campbell back to sort this PR shitshow out?

I said months ago that Blair had the advantage of Campbell, Mandelson and the like of John Reid. Political bruisers and masters of spin.

 

[RandyWanger]

Utterly deplorable indeed. #StarmerOut is trending on X

I liked this graphic

 

[Weststander]

i did when checking on the points forming the black hole. they cite the IFS with an estimated 10-20bn hole by end of the parliament, which is largely made from the pay awards. there was no expectation of these large pay awards in the 2021 spending review, because there was underestimated forecast of inflation, and more recently no intention to follow the pay recommendations. that puts it down to policy decisions.

A R4 prog on statistics partly backs you that a huge chunk of the 'blackhole' comprises the recent pay awards.

 

[The Clamp]

Makes more economic sense to stop the strikes and get the country moving again than save well off pensioners £25 a month.

“The government can’t reduce safety on the railways, these people deserve better pay”

Okay. Where does the money come from?


Sorry, nearly all pensioners will be better off and have money left over. They’ll be on 145 quid better off a year.

Stop clutching your pearls. The oldies will be just fine. The rest of the country needs a working railway system and productive workers.

It’s £25 a month. Get over it.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I said months ago that Blair had the advantage of Campbell, Mandelson and the like of John Reid. Political bruisers and masters of spin.

I agree. Blair's Labour was a slick machine, they controlled the narrative and the agenda. Crucially, they were ahead of the curve, they could see the problem approaching from a distance and head it off in advance.

This Winter Fuel Payment story should not be getting the traction it has, and has presented the Tories with a quick way of getting back into the game.

In some respects, if Starmer is going to go down this route and be "all substance, no spin" then I kind of admire him, but at the same time there seems to be some political naivety at play.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I don’t see what the fuss is. Pensioners are actullay going to be better off. But I suppose that’s not sensational enough for some.

“UK state pension could rise by about £460 a year from April, wage growth figures suggest”​

The Guardian
10-09/2024

Remind me - when do fuel bills go up? Yep, that's right, October.

When does the pension increase kick in? Yep, right again, April.

Might be too late for some pensioners.

Listen to the Charities - non-political -they know this is wrong.
You know this is wrong.
Lots of Labour MPs know this is wrong.

That's because it is wrong.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Utterly deplorable indeed. #StarmerOut is trending on X

I liked this graphic

To be fair, the Budget is going to up a load of tax that is going to finance Labour's policy changes. That said, the optics right now are the pensioners are paying for everything, and it's not a good look.

 

[armchairclubber]

I may be in the wrong place, but for those who would like to sign the petition (Age UK)

Save the Winter Fuel Payment for struggling pensioners

Sign Age UK's petition. Cutting the Winter Fuel Payment this winter, with virtually no notice and no compensatory measures to protect poor and vulnerable pensioners, is the wrong policy decision.

campaigns.ageuk.org.uk

 

[Bozza]

Makes more economic sense to stop the strikes and get the country moving again than save well off pensioners £25 a month.

“The government can’t reduce safety on the railways, these people deserve better pay”

Okay. Where does the money come from?


Sorry, nearly all pensioners will be better off and have money left over. They’ll be on 145 quid better off a year.

Stop clutching your pearls. The oldies will be just fine. The rest of the country needs a working railway system and productive workers.

It’s £25 a month. Get over it.

It's remarkable how you can so glibly group 10m people together, and believe that this change won't adversely impact a fair few at the lower end of the income and wealth spectrum.

For the first time ever, because of my mother, I've sought help, advice and support from Age UK. They truly are remarkable in what they do, and their knowledge of those they serve.

So, when I read them saying the following, I sit up and take notice.

We strongly oppose the means-testing of the Winter Fuel Payment because it means as many as 2 million pensioners who badly need the money to stay warm this winter will not receive it and will be in serious trouble as a result.​

​

Means-testing the Winter Fuel Payment, with no notice and no compensatory measures to protect poor and vulnerable pensioners, is the wrong policy choice, and one that will potentially jeopardise the health as well as the finances of millions of older people this winter – the last thing either they or the NHS needs.​

​

This isn't about mansion-dwelling millionaire oldies.

 

[The Clamp]

Four months.

Remind me - when do fuel bills go up? Yep, that's right, October.

When does the pension increase kick in? Yep, right again, April.

Might be too late for some pensioners.

Listen to the Charities - non-political -they know this is wrong.
You know this is wrong.
Lots of Labour MPs know this is wrong.

That's because it is wrong.

4 months? Stop being so dramatic.

 

[The Clamp]

It's remarkable how you can so glibly group 10m people together, and believe that this change won't adversely impact a fair few at the lower end of the income and wealth spectrum.

For the first time ever, because of my mother, I've sought help, advice and support from Age UK. They truly are remarkable in what they do, and their knowledge of those they serve.

So, when I read them saying the following, I sit up and take notice.

We strongly oppose the means-testing of the Winter Fuel Payment because it means as many as 2 million pensioners who badly need the money to stay warm this winter will not receive it and will be in serious trouble as a result.​

​

Means-testing the Winter Fuel Payment, with no notice and no compensatory measures to protect poor and vulnerable pensioners, is the wrong policy choice, and one that will potentially jeopardise the health as well as the finances of millions of older people this winter – the last thing either they or the NHS needs.​

​

This isn't about mansion-dwelling millionaire oldies.

It’s means tested.

That’s fair.

Sorry if you don’t think so but you’re wrong.

 

[Weststander]

I agree. Blair's Labour was a slick machine, they controlled the narrative and the agenda. Crucially, they were ahead of the curve, they could see the problem approaching from a distance and head it off in advance.

This Winter Fuel Payment story should not be getting the traction it has, and has presented the Tories with a quick way of getting back into the game.

In some respects, if Starmer is going to go down this route and be "all substance, no spin" then I kind of admire him, but at the same time there seems to be some political naivety at play.

(Because I always want the UK to succeed, a government with minimal distractions) I hope Reeves has something up her sleeve in the budget on winter fuel.

I'm sticking to my guns that well off pensioners such as my parents shouldn't receive it, when there are difficult fiscal choices to me be made. But what about OAP households in the bands above the pension credit threshold.

Means testing gets thrown around as the new solution, but it's incredibly expensive to run with a vast online form.

Perhaps as has been suggested a blunt measure based on council tax bands?

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I expect Labour to win the Commons vote, for Winter Fuel Payments to be scrapped and for everybody to move on. However, Labour's PR chief needs sacking.

To my mind, Labour should have had their Budget at the earliest opportunity, which would have been c. 12/13 September. They could have kept schtum until then, unleashed all the pain and taken all the negativity in one hit. But at least there would have been certainty moving forward, businesses, investors and the housing market could start planning and party conference could take the new plans into account and develop policy.

Instead, we've had Starmer's speech saying there will be great pain, then we've had this Winter Fuel Payment story, and we still have to wait another 7 weeks before the actual Budget.

This is spreading the pain and negativity over an extended period, one in which 5 Tory candidates for the leadership can each have a pop at Labour and magnify the Opposition response. In addition, Labour will be trying to end the public sector strikes with wage hikes but no one knows where the money is coming from, fanning the flames of uncertainty.

Labour have created a economic policy vacuum and it is not helping them. Maybe they should get Mandelson and Alistair Campbell back to sort this PR shitshow out?

Agree with that, been handled very poorly - gives the impression that GKR couldn't wait to get this news out - as you say, the budget would have been the time (although I strongly disagree with witdrawing WFA, so don't think anytime would have been the right time) as at the moment it appears the pain is only aimed at pensioners whereas in reality in the budget there will be a lot more pain pretty much accross the board.

 

[Bodian]

It’s means tested.

That’s fair.

Sorry if you don’t think so but you’re wrong.

I suppose the difficulty is deciding the level at which it cuts in/out. So, I suspect if they had brought in something that tapered the benefit (as that is what it is) so those just above the level at which it will now kick in got some, but not all of it - then it would have gone down better - and been a bit fairer. But that would probably be difficult and expensive to administer.