[Politics] Labour Party meltdown incoming.......

[Hotchilidog]

They said they'd only discovered the full extent of it AFTER the election.

Is there a £22 billion ‘black hole’ in the public finances? - Full Fact

In a speech in the Downing Street garden today, the Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said there’s a “£22 billion black hole in the public finances”. We’d…

fullfact.org

I do not believe them.

 

[Bozza]

I do not believe them.

It's difficult to when the on-side and well-briefed Guardian was talking about all this BEFORE the election...

Labour is planning a major package of measures this autumn, according to party sources, and Reeves is looking for a “doctor’s mandate”: the state of the public finances is so bad, she will argue, that they will need major surgery to correct.​

​

One source said: “Rachel has between 10 and 12 measures she is looking at which she hasn’t yet announced, all of which will raise small pots of money, with the ambition they should add up to something all together.”​

​

Another said the shadow chancellor wanted to take a “kitchen sink” approach in order to raise tax income and pursue radical reform and investment in public services. The person admitted: “That is not what they are presenting the public with right now.”​

​

“Kitchen-sinking” is a tool common in political and business circles – it has been used at companies including Tesco to Nokia – in which a new leader releases all the bad news at once, thereby justifying drastic measures.​

Rachel Reeves under Labour pressure to raise capital gains tax to revive public services

After ruling out rises in VAT, income tax or national insurance, shadow chancellor said to be weighing other options to raise cash in an autumn budget

www.theguardian.com

 

[Guinness Boy]

It's difficult to when the on-side and well-briefed Guardian was talking about all this BEFORE the election...

Labour is planning a major package of measures this autumn, according to party sources, and Reeves is looking for a “doctor’s mandate”: the state of the public finances is so bad, she will argue, that they will need major surgery to correct.​

​

One source said: “Rachel has between 10 and 12 measures she is looking at which she hasn’t yet announced, all of which will raise small pots of money, with the ambition they should add up to something all together.”​

​

Another said the shadow chancellor wanted to take a “kitchen sink” approach in order to raise tax income and pursue radical reform and investment in public services. The person admitted: “That is not what they are presenting the public with right now.”​

​

“Kitchen-sinking” is a tool common in political and business circles – it has been used at companies including Tesco to Nokia – in which a new leader releases all the bad news at once, thereby justifying drastic measures.​

Rachel Reeves under Labour pressure to raise capital gains tax to revive public services

After ruling out rises in VAT, income tax or national insurance, shadow chancellor said to be weighing other options to raise cash in an autumn budget

www.theguardian.com

I do not believe them.

That's largely semantics though. Everyone knew there was a problem. No one knew the full extent of it.

And, yes, Labour will have 'kitchen sinked' this, and I expect their budget this year to be vastly unpopular. The gamble is that in a year or two things will be better and significantly better in five years. As I said, even this Starmer voter will be out if they are not.

 

[crodonilson]

Quite superb speech from Sir Keir at the TUC conference, going down an absolute storm. Fair pay for the public sector, even got a dig in at Everton.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Quite superb speech from Sir Keir at the TUC conference, going down an absolute storm. Fair pay for the public sector, even got a dig in at Everton.

Hardly surprising is it.

Give the unions what they want and let some pensioners choose between heating and eating.

 

[nevergoagain]

Quite superb speech from Sir Keir at the TUC conference, going down an absolute storm. Fair pay for the public sector, even got a dig in at Everton.

Imagine my shock at the PM telling his Union paymasters what they want to hear at their conference.

 

[Weststander]

All pensioners do come from the generation that have benefited from low taxation and triple lock pensions.
That isn't tarring them all with the same brush...

Millions of pensioners don’t have good income. Many due to previous state pension schemes (under all governments), they don’t receive the headline state pension.

We need to move away from generalising about entire age groups.

Taxation. That’s a complex history and discussion.

 

[crodonilson]

Standing ovation for Sir Keir.

 

[taz]

Giving train drivers a £9000 a year pay rise most of which backdated 2 years, for a 35 hour week, presumably all the overtime done in the last 2 years is also recalculated, £74k a year basic pay nice!! of course two tier Kier is getting a fantastic ovation,his audience is drooling with excitement for their pay award, meanwhile an estimated 4000 old age pensioners will freeze to death inside their homes this winter

 

[Chicken Run]

Imagine my shock at the PM telling his Union paymasters what they want to hear at their conference.

Imagine my shock in hearing that somone has nothing better to do with their day watching the TUC conference

 

[The Clamp]

Giving train drivers a £9000 a year pay rise most of which backdated 2 years, for a 35 hour week, presumably all the overtime done in the last 2 years is also recalculated, £74k a year basic pay nice!! of course two tier Kier is getting a fantastic ovation,his audience is drooling with excitement for their pay award, meanwhile an estimated 4000 old age pensioners will freeze to death inside their homes this winter

4000 pensioners are actually going to freeze to death. To death? Freeze to death?

This is a fact?


Get a grip. Maybe they don’t go on as many cruises this year or cut back on the M&S cream teas.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

Hardly surprising is it.

Give the unions what they want and let some pensioners choose between heating and eating.

I'd choose eating

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

, meanwhile an estimated 4000 old age pensioners will freeze to death inside their homes this winter

You're going to look silly when it's only 3999

 

[beorhthelm]

That's largely semantics though. Everyone knew there was a problem. No one knew the full extent of it.

And, yes, Labour will have 'kitchen sinked' this, and I expect their budget this year to be vastly unpopular. The gamble is that in a year or two things will be better and significantly better in five years. As I said, even this Starmer voter will be out if they are not.

dont think it's semantics, it's different policies. the claimed budget black hole is comprised of the Home Office not accouting for asylum processing cost, a public sector pay settlement above 2% and a bunch of minor transport and other costs. the Consevatives were fudging the asylum costs with funding from Overseas Development budget, were probably intending to only pay around 2% ignoring the pay recommendation, and defer the others off (they didnt have to be done next financial year).

Reeves then has a raft of policies that will need funding, with some number of billions to raise over the next parliament, hopefully by increased tax receipts as the economy grows. though everyone expected some tax increases too for the spending to commence in short term, such as the CGT increase.

somewhere along the line between election and the end of their audit, this all got smudged together. now we have a large balck hole and presumably no programme of spending to improve services. or it was intended as cover for tax rises (off the back of electioneering saying no taxes), that got lost in briefings, someone took WFP as an easy £1bn, that became the banner policy for the summer. they royally messed this up politically, unforced error that could have waited until the budget.

supporting evidence from IFS, a quote via BBC "It is a point made by IFS director, Paul Johnson: “The numbers may be a little bit worse than they thought at the time, and I think there were some things that were hidden from view, but the overall picture over the next four or five years is very, very similar to what we knew before the election.”

 

[keaton]

"I voted Tory for the last 14 years of austerity but suddenly care about cuts causing deaths"

 

[The Clamp]

I don’t see what the fuss is. Pensioners are actullay going to be better off. But I suppose that’s not sensational enough for some.

“UK state pension could rise by about £460 a year from April, wage growth figures suggest”​

The Guardian
10-09/2024

 

[BLOCK F]

And if we're going to go down the Covid route the previous government's incompetence / helping out their mates saw 4 billion pounds worth of useless PPE in the UK. Source? The UK Parliament itself.

Labour aren't taking away this payment from ALL old people (despite the press reporting that is at best misleading) and I'd expect most pensioners in Whitehawk to qualify for Pension Credit. One of the things this has done is raise awareness that this should be being claimed where it wasn't, but people who are entitled to it weren't claiming. Those people will suddenly find themselves with extra money via the credit, another rise in their pension next year thanks to preserving triple lock and keeping their Winter Heating payments.

There are some on the cusp who will be worse off till the next triple lock kicks in. There are plenty with comfortable pensions in houses with hundreds of thousands of equity crying over 300 quid.

I’m a comfortably off pensioner and I’m not ‘crying’ over the loss of £300 for myself or my wife, but I have been pointing out the injustice of the Labour Party penalising poor pensioners who are subsisting on low incomes, just above the pension credit level, by taking away an amount of money that is important to them. All those on here defending/justifying the action know only too well that had the Tories done this, they would have been foaming at the mouth and calling them and their supporters, ‘scum.’
As I have said previously, of course there is a case for halting the universality of the WPF, but the way this cut has been implemented is dismal and pretty poor politics.
We may agree to disagree.

 

[Guinness Boy]

dont think it's semantics, it's different policies. the claimed budget black hole is comprised of the Home Office not accouting for asylum processing cost, a public sector pay settlement above 2% and a bunch of minor transport and other costs. the Consevatives were fudging the asylum costs with funding from Overseas Development budget, were probably intending to only pay around 2% ignoring the pay recommendation, and defer the others off (they didnt have to be done next financial year).

Reeves then has a raft of policies that will need funding, with some number of billions to raise over the next parliament, hopefully by increased tax receipts as the economy grows. though everyone expected some tax increases too for the spending to commence in short term, such as the CGT increase.

somewhere along the line between election and the end of their audit, this all got smudged together. now we have a large balck hole and presumably no programme of spending to improve services. or it was intended as cover for tax rises (off the back of electioneering saying no taxes), that got lost in briefings, someone took WFP as an easy £1bn, that became the banner policy for the summer. they royally messed this up politically, unforced error that could have waited until the budget.

supporting evidence from IFS, a quote via BBC "It is a point made by IFS director, Paul Johnson: “The numbers may be a little bit worse than they thought at the time, and I think there were some things that were hidden from view, but the overall picture over the next four or five years is very, very similar to what we knew before the election.”

Read the Full Fact link I supplied which will tell you that's not the case.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I’m a comfortably off pensioner and I’m not ‘crying’ over the loss of £300 for myself or my wife, but I have been pointing out the injustice of the Labour Party penalising poor pensioners who are subsisting on low incomes, just above the pension credit level, by taking away an amount of money that is important to them. All those on here defending/justifying the action know only too well that had the Tories done this, they would have been foaming at the mouth and calling them and their supporters, ‘scum.’
As I have said previously, of course there is a case for halting the universality of the WPF, but the way this cut has been implemented is dismal and pretty poor politics.
We may agree to disagree.

We will agree to disagree and that's fine. Earlier in the thread I was discussing this with two mates and I'm sure we'd put the same views over if we were talking over a pint.

My point, really is that there is a black hole to fix AND public services (e.g. NHS, Education, Transport) that are in parlous states following Tory neglect, Brexit and the pandemic. Everyone agrees they need fixing but no one wants THEIR money to pay for it. That simply isn't going to work. And, as a follow on, it's perfectly possible that the budget will hit my family too and I'm fine with that if it fixes those issues and leads to sustainable growth. I'd rather that than pay for Boris's wine cellar.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I don’t see what the fuss is. Pensioners are actullay going to be better off. But I suppose that’s not sensational enough for some.

“UK state pension could rise by about £460 a year from April, wage growth figures suggest”​

The Guardian
10-09/2024

I agree with this position.

To me this is the larger conversation. The triple lock is surely completely unsustainable.

I mean, just one normal rise, much smaller than last year, has in effect totally covered the loss of the winter fuel payments for the great majority

I reckon this whole winter fuel gambit for Labour is a way of putting that conversation off until after the next election.