[Albion] Just how good is Hürzeler?

[Bozza]

Interesting comparison to the same fixtures last season...

By way of coincidence, I was looking at this the other day but, typically, didn't get to complete the work.

However, by my reckoning, there's only one fixture thus far this season where we've done worse than in the corresponding game last season...

Everton (a): Last season: D, This season: W, Points diff; +2
Man Utd (h): Last season: L, This season: W, Points diff; +3
Arsenal (a): Last season: L, This season: D, Points diff; +1
Forest (h): Last season: W, This season: D, Points diff; -2
Chelsea (a): Last season: L, This season: L, Points diff; 0
Spurs (h): Last season: W, This season: W, Points diff; 0
Newcastle (a): Last season: D, This season: W, Points diff; +2
Wolves (h): Last season: D, This season: D, Points diff; 0
Liverpool (a): Last season: L, This season: L, Points diff; 0
Man City (h): Last season: L, This season: W, Points diff; +3
Bournemouth (a): Last season: L, This season: W, Points diff; +3

12 points better off like-for-like.

 

[pigmanovich]

However, by my reckoning, there's not a single fixture thus far this season where we've done worse than the cin the corresponding game last season...

<in progress>

Forest at home?

 

[Bozza]

Forest at home?

Ah yes. Not sure what I’d done there.

 

[Hiheidi]

Forest at home?

Yes, we won that last season but it was a piss poor game from both teams and we won via an own goal!

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

We're currently overperforming mainly in conceding four fewer goals than expected (our goals scored output is very close to expected). However, only half of this is down to luck (worse than average finishing from the opposition), the other half is down to above average goalkeeping by Verbruggen who is conceding two goals fewer than you would expect from the shots he has faced. So roughly half of our overperformance on xP (and xG) is down to having an excellent keeper (this also doesn't consider his above average distribution).

Yep. Verbruggen is a pretty significant factor in getting us to our current points tally.

Still waiting for @Han Solo’s other data metrics which show we’ve been riding our luck?

 

[Hiheidi]

Tricky one: is it down to the new manager or is it down to the near £200 million investment in players over the Summer? I'm undecided personally: leaning heavily somewhere from 80/20 to 85/15 in favour of the player investment

That would make sense if we were relying heavily on players bought over the Summer, but apart from Rutter, we are not.

Osman (£16m), Yalcouye (£6m) - out on loan
O'Riley (£25m) - 47 minutes
Gruda (£25m) - 59 minutes
Wieffer (£25m) - 260 minutes
Kadioglu (£25m) - 388 minutes
Minteh (£30m) - 407 minutes
Rutter (£40m) - 674 minutes

The most minutes have gone to players that were already on our books: Welbeck, Mitoma, Veltman, Verbruggen, Hinshelwood, Van Hecke, Dunk and Baleba. And you have to factor in the departure of Groß.

 

[pigmanovich]

Yes, we won that last season but it was a piss poor game from both teams and we won via an own goal!

Beside the point, Bozza initially said there hadn't been any fixtures this season where we dropped points compared with last season and Forest at home was one such game.

 

[Hiheidi]

Beside the point, Bozza initially said there hadn't been any fixtures this season where we dropped points compared with last season and Forest at home was one such game.

Yep, I know. Just saying that it wasn't a convincing win.

 

[Machiavelli]

That would make sense if we were relying heavily on players bought over the Summer, but apart from Rutter, we are not.

Osman (£16m), Yalcouye (£6m) - out on loan
O'Riley (£25m) - 47 minutes
Gruda (£25m) - 59 minutes
Wieffer (£25m) - 260 minutes
Kadioglu (£25m) - 388 minutes
Minteh (£30m) - 407 minutes
Rutter (£40m) - 674 minutes

The most minutes have gone to players that were already on our books: Welbeck, Mitoma, Veltman, Verbruggen, Hinshelwood, Van Hecke, Dunk and Baleba. And you have to factor in the departure of Groß.

Spot on and, given the number of minutes played last season, think you'd have to add the departure of Gilmour, as well as Gross.

 

[pigmanovich]

Yep, I know. Just saying that it wasn't a convincing win.

Definitely not

 

[dazzer6666]

Yep. Verbruggen is a pretty significant factor in getting us to our current points tally.

Still waiting for @Han Solo’s other data metrics which show we’ve been riding our luck?

Bart’s around 5th-8th on most of the detailed metrics……

Premier League Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Premier League season.

fbref.com

 

[DJ Chi]

Bart’s around 5th-8th on most of the detailed metrics……

Premier League Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Premier League season.

fbref.com

That's still well above average though, and him and Alisson are the only two keepers who are near the top of both shots saved above average and the sweeping category. Add in the distribution and he is an elite keeper in the PL at 22. Hopefully he continues to go under the radar

 

[jcdenton08]

That's still well above average though, and him and Alisson are the only two keepers who are near the top of both shots saved above average and the sweeping category. Add in the distribution and he is an elite keeper in the PL at 22. Hopefully he continues to go under the radar

Yabsolutely. Verbruggen will be if not the best, then one of the best in the world. He’s a baby in goalkeeping years having just turned 22, with 54 top division appearances plus 18 caps for the Netherlands. He’s going to be world class, and he’s already one of the best in the league.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Whisper it quietly, new guy has benefited hugely from RDZ screaming and yelling last January that he needed EPL-ready players. On some level the board acquiesed to his logical demands, even if they couldn't be seen to be doing so. Hence RDZ exit.

RDZ

RDZ didn’t benefit at all from GP’s run of form…and now this!

 

[sussex_guy2k2]

A ton of luck? Really? Such as?

Just off the top of my head, we’ve got the rub of the green in key moments in games against Man Utd, Ipswich, Wolves, Spurs, even City. And that’s just the home games I can think of. In fact, there’s not a home game I’ve walked away from yet and thought, objectively, that we thoroughly deserved all 3 points.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Just off the top of my head, we’ve got the rub of the green in key moments in games against Man Utd, Ipswich, Wolves, Spurs, even City. And that’s just the home games I can think of. In fact, there’s not a home game I’ve walked away from yet and thought, objectively, that we thoroughly deserved all 3 points.

I‘m probably not the best person to communicate with on this topic as I‘m not a great believer in luck. I do, however, believe to a certain degree you can create your own good fortune.

If we have been “lucky” in so many games maybe we’re doing something right?

 

[Zeberdi]

By way of coincidence, I was looking at this the other day but, typically, didn't get to complete the work.

However, by my reckoning, there's only one fixture thus far this season where we've done worse than in the corresponding game last season...

Some of those fixtures in 2023/4 where we lost but won this season were played towards the end of the second half of the season where we had half the squad out injured or knackered and were fielding kids from the U21s. Plus a manager that already had a foot out the door:

Bournemouth away,
Man U home
Newcastle away,
Man City home

All played March-May

Not diminishing the achievements this season but it might be more meaningful to compare the results with 2022/23 when we weren’t competing for Europe and had half the squad on a physio couch.

Not really ‘like for like’ other than the fixture so not sure how valuable it is. (Man City below par this season too)
It’s a fun feel good statistic though.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

You didn't say th

"Probably one of the worst managers in the league though (tough competition) - we've made blunders, been naive and quite often struggled to change the games."

You're doubling down now you've realised how ridiculous that statement was. Of course there are more experienced managers in the league. Doesn't mean they are better though. Yeah, I accept he's not proved anything yet and some results have been a bit fortuitous, but it's been a very promising start.

A bit of lost in translation here I suspect. @Han Solo means that after only 12 EPL games under his belt, he has less on his CV than any other manager*.

You of course recognize that along with his total lack of achievement is his total lack of failure.

And given that we are 5th, who gives a f*** about his CV.

The table doesn't lie.

Mind you, that orange twerp who had Hull in second at Christmas in his first season as an EPL manager turned out to be a plum.

So you are both right - Fab is the least* successful EPL manager historically, but he is the 5th best manager at the moment.

*Er, apart from the Stains and Ipswich managers.

 

[pigmanovich]

Some of those fixtures in 2023/4 where we lost but won this season were played towards the end of the second half of the season where we had half the squad out injured or knackered and were fielding kids from the U21s. Plus a manager that already had a foot out the door:

Bournemouth away,
Man U away,
Newcastle away,
Man City away

All played March-May

Man Utd and Man City at home not away

 

[Zeberdi]

Man Utd and Man City at home not away

Sorry typos - thanks, will edit.