[Politics] Johnson or Hunt?

[Chicken Run]

Harsh....................

But, yes - true........


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If Mellers is a member of the Tory party and you a leave voter then this comment would have some worrying credibility......

 

[Creaky]

There you go.

It’s only ever a tiny proportion of the country who votes in the next PM. In the last General Election only 37,718 people voted for Theresa May!

 

[Simster]

Yes it is. Get your FACTS straight. You, or anybody else, do NOT vote for a Prime Minister, you vote for someone to be a local MP. Numbers of MPs added up etc etc and you get a Government, who is the leader of that entity in the future is entirely immaterial at the point you place you vote into the ballot box. Do you get it yet?

I don't disagree, but seeing as you didn't recognise Brian Fantana's quote as being that from Boris Johnson's article in The Spectator a few years ago when Brown was foisted upon us, I'd pipe down with self-righteous horseshit if I were you. Regardless of the facts of who we vote for, the man is a total hypocrite for doing exactly what he was whinging about over a decade ago.

 

[Bob!]

The gap's closed again recently, but the long term polling does suggest that Remain is the majority opinion (https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/united-kingdom/#93494). The gap was as high as 10% in May this year, but narrowed to 5% right before the EU elections (I think, to be expected). Only a couple of polls since then, so it's remained (excuse the pun) at 5% since then (one poll slightly narrowed than that, most recent poll wider). Definite long term trend towards Remain overall. But, until it gets tested in a national vote, we simply won't know - the polling is still close enough that error margins could be hiding the truth (as they so often have in the last decade in the UK).




Latest polling average has the Tories and Labour neck-and-neck on 25% and 24%. Brexit Party and Lib Dems likewise neck-and-neck on 19% and 18%. Labour's generally been ahead of the Tories since April, however it's closed up now as the Tories have regained some support from the Brexit Party. I'd hazard a guess they'll gain some more back now that Boris will be PM, but may lose some others (most likely to the Lib Dems) for the same reason. Will be interesting to see what the balance is.

Lib Dems have, so far this year, actually done better on election day than they've been polling pre-election. The opposite has happened for the Brexit Party - their support softened on election day (yes, they had a very successful EU election day, but it wasn't as strong as pre-polling suggested it might be).

A lot hinges on how Boris handles everything from here. I can see a General Election before the end of the year. If that happens, and if current polling holds, then we *will not* have a majority government of any colour. What's more likely is that we get a pro-Remain "government" that crosses party lines in defiance of party leadership that stays just long enough to see a 2nd Ref held and enforced before dissolving for yet another GE. All depends on how many seats the Lib Dems can muster, how strongly Corbyn can stomach campaigning pro-Ref, and how the vote splits between Tory and Brexit Party. A split pro-Brexit vote should produce a pro-Remain coalition of some sort, given that we're already seeing a willingness from the explicitly pro-Remain parties to cooperate (see Greens and Plaid Cymru stepping aside to make it easier for the Lib Dems for the Brecon byelection).

But, I would suggest we are likely to see a pre-election pact between the Brexit Party and the Tory Party, So a lot would depend on Labours GE position on remain, and whether they would enter into any pre-election pacts with Lib dem in particular.

If not, it will be the Remain vote that splinters and Tory Brexit Majority.

 

[Chicken Run]

A true low point for this country. We are a global laughing stock.

But we were before today’s result, pretty certain you’ve said as much long before May resigned too?

 

[London Pompous]

Would rather have Adam Johnson that Boris.

 

[Simster]

So many snowflakes melting today and it has feck all to do with the hot temperature.

Look out Barrier, Boris is coming for you.

pmsl

 

[wellquickwoody]

That's how our government is formed. It's not a democracy.

It is part of the democratic process that the UK has used for at least a hundred years, if not double that. People being upset that it does not suit THEIR agenda right now are ignoring protocol, and the rule of law.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

The EU must be quaking in it's boots at the sight of one of the thickest men in political history stumbling into the room.

Took them a whole 45 minutes to shoot down his plan

Don't underestimate Boris, he might just surprise you.

 

[Mayonaise]

I would rather become the 51st state of the USA than tolerate British politics right now - even with their wan*er in charge.

The bloke will never re-unite this country but the bigger point is that he couldn't actually care less.

How did it come to this?

 

[Simster]

Don't underestimate Boris, he might just surprise you.

There is no substance to anything he ever says. He's an overgrown public school boy that half of his own party don't even trust.

How about you stop overestimating him?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I would rather become the 51st state of the USA than tolerate British politics right now - even with their wan*er in charge.

The bloke will never re-unite this country but the bigger point is that he couldn't actually care less.

How did it come to this?

That’s exactly what he has in mind.

 

[Mackenzie]

Brexit led by this buffoon.

 

[thejackal]

I would rather become the 51st state of the USA than tolerate British politics right now - even with their wan*er in charge.

The bloke will never re-unite this country but the bigger point is that he couldn't actually care less.

How did it come to this?

Be careful what you wish for ;-D

 

[Audax]

But, I would suggest we are likely to see a pre-election pact between the Brexit Party and the Tory Party, So a lot would depend on Labours GE position on remain, and whether they would enter into any pre-election pacts with Lib dem in particular.

If not, it will be the Remain vote that splinters and Tory Brexit Majority.

That would imply a pro-No Deal agreement, in theory. In that case, I think you'd see the Tory vote suffer more than the pact as a whole would benefit - I'm firmly of the belief that there's a significant number of Pro-Brexit voters out there who would vote Remain in opposition to a No-Deal Brexit. So you could actually see a significant strengthening of the Lib Dem vote share in that instance.

There's a lot of potential permutations out there if we do have a GE before year end. One possibility is a re-run of the EU election, with Brexit Party and Lib Dems taking majority share. Under the current FPP system I doubt that would translate to either of them claiming 100+ seats each, though, so the result could be the nation finally waking up to the fact that FPP is a broken system.

 

[ROSM]

So we now have a brexiteer in charge of brexit. No more blame, no more denials. Anything now is his fault.....actually believe the chances of brexit not happening have now increased

 

[Gritt23]

Exactly like Boris Johnson did in 2007.

Agreed.

But .... politician are hypocrites, hold the front page. Tomorrow, news on where bears do their numbers 2s.

 

[nicko31]

So we now have a brexiteer in charge of brexit. No more blame, no more denials. Anything now is his fault.....actually believe the chances of brexit not happening have now increased

When he fails, they'll say he was a remainer all along...

 

[Trufflehound]

So we now have a brexiteer in charge of brexit. No more blame, no more denials. Anything now is his fault.....actually believe the chances of brexit not happening have now increased

You don't seriously believe that will happen, do you?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

When he fails, they'll say he was a remainer all along...

Well if Liam Fox is now a remainer....