John McDowell and a run on the pound.

[sahel]

Don't know which planet you are on,but on Earth there is a Labour conference on at the moment.If Labour policy was a second referendum,I'm sure they would have announced it.In fact,the Glorious Leader has let it be known that staying in the single market is a complete no-no.The rules make it impossible to re-nationalise the railways,you silly-billy.

I think you will find that French railways are state run and German railways largely so . So perhaps not so silly. I know of course that Labour policy is not yet a second referendum. However two things might well happen post a disastrous negotiation. Firstly there will be a swing in public opinion against Brexit and secondly it will be obvious that the country needs rescuing. The Labour Party will then see a second referendum as a way of securing power in a general election that will surely follow

 

[Weststander]

I think you will find that French railways are state run and German railways largely so . So perhaps not so silly. I know of course that Labour policy is not yet a second referendum. However two things might well happen post a disastrous negotiation. Firstly there will be a swing in public opinion against Brexit and secondly it will be obvious that the country needs rescuing. The Labour Party will then see a second referendum as a way of securing power in a general election that will surely follow

You talk as you know the future. The PM elect for many reasons is and always has been anti the consequences of the UK being in the EU. He's made that abundantly plain and so reclaimed the many millions of working class voters who are pro Brexit. There is no evidence that those people have changed their opinion one jot. The EU were always going to be spiteful in negotiations with any nation leaving, to deter like minded nations doing the same.

 

[sahel]

Well, time will tell

 

[cunning fergus]

I think you will find that French railways are state run and German railways largely so . So perhaps not so silly. I know of course that Labour policy is not yet a second referendum. However two things might well happen post a disastrous negotiation. Firstly there will be a swing in public opinion against Brexit and secondly it will be obvious that the country needs rescuing. The Labour Party will then see a second referendum as a way of securing power in a general election that will surely follow

No they are not state run, they are run as private companies and the public and businesses can invest in them. They do not have listing on an exchange but their debt issuance is tradable as shares would be. It’s not the aggressive capitalism as we know it, but these assets are not owned by the workers (as per clause IV).

https://www.sncf-reseau.fr/en/investors/financial-strategy

http://www.deutschebahn.com/en/investor_relations

This is not the model of re-nationalisation of the Labour Party, and why the capital markets will go into meltdown, it’s why this thread exists.

You Silly Billy.

 

[sahel]

No they are not state run, they are run as private companies and the public and businesses can invest in them. They do not have listing on an exchange but their debt issuance is tradable as shares would be. It’s not the aggressive capitalism as we know it, but these assets are not owned by the workers (as per clause IV).

https://www.sncf-reseau.fr/en/investors/financial-strategy

http://www.deutschebahn.com/en/investor_relations

This is not the model of re-nationalisation of the Labour Party, and why the capital markets will go into meltdown, it’s why this thread exists.

The east Coast line was run successfully as a state run line. No problems fron tge EU as I recall



You Silly Billy.

SNCF is owned 100% by the French state

 

[cunning fergus]

SNCF is owned 100% by the French state

It’s not a nationalised concern, the French have their own laws on infrastructure (EPIC laws), and why it can issue tradable debt instruments so that the capitalists can invest in SNCF.

Saying SNCF is state owned is like arguing that PFI arrangements in the NHS or Schools are owned by the state, they are not, the state is in hock to capitalists. It’s why the EU outlaw conventional state ownership.

It’s why McDonnell will sweep away PFI arrangements too.......and why the capital markets will shit their pants when Corbyn gets in.

It’s why this thread exists.

Silly Billy.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Returning to the football theme of this thread, an indirect benefit of a Labour government might be to take us back to the 1970s strikes and power cuts - when football had to be played in daylight as floodlights were banned. That might give me a chance of beating the loyalty point scheme and getting a ticket for a midweek away match as most fans will be at work (unless we're all on zero hours contracts, on strike or a 3 day working week).

John McDowell also played for Westham.

 

[The Merry Prankster]

What's wrong with the thread? I heard it on the news and was surprised Labour have so little confidence in their ability to run the economy, so I assumed it was a fair discussion point.

It has nothing to do with Labours ability to run the economy. Partly it will be that when they stop privatisation all those who have been betting on Virgin, Google etc shares are going to lose their bet but mostly they think that some really right wing money in league with their friends in the media will try to manufacture one. McDonnell however believes that Labours plans for long term investment will appeal to the markets . What I've been hearing a lot of down there is how with wages suppressed and personal credit maxing out neo liberalism has no way of funding continuing consumption growth. Bad times all round and time for a new way or for authoritarianism. You pays your money (if you had any) and takes your pick.

 

[beorhthelm]

It has nothing to do with Labours ability to run the economy. Partly it will be that when they stop privatisation all those who have been betting on Virgin, Google etc shares are going to lose their bet but mostly they think that some really right wing money in league with their friends in the media will try to manufacture one. McDonnell however believes that Labours plans for long term investment will appeal to the markets

no need to manufacture a economic crisis, Labour policy is to nationalise lots of things and spend £500Bn. this will lead to a significant rise inflation, and high taxation to attempt to control. in his socialist view this doesnt matter as only the wealthy will be hit, forgetting those with wealth are those he needs to lend him money. question, if a governmernt has just taken your investment or debased the currecny, would you invest with them?

if he's doing genuine wargaming of the run on the pound, the conclusion should be dont do the things that cause a run on the pound, not do it anyway and hope to cope.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

with McDonnell's economic policies, absolutely necessary. glad to hear he's thinking of it, an acknowledgement that his plans would be detrimental to the economy.

i wonder if they are war gaming the next election in 4 and half years against a more credible Conservative campaign?

It's not an acknowledgement that his plans would be detrimental to the economy. He actually said "They will be out to get us", so saying that a downturn in the economy would be engineered.

And as a left-leaning person, I think he was absolutely downright effing stupid to say it, even if it is true, which I am not sure it is..

 

[The Merry Prankster]

They've been here all week. McDonnell has, in addition to his set piece, spoken at many of the World Transformed's events and has. Sen explaining himself till he's blue in the face. Plus he's very approachable and seems to have time for anyone who asks.

Anyone living down here, with a genuine interest, could have found out his thinking quite easily.

 

[The Birdman]

At least the inward tourist trade would good and Export will be cheap oh raw material will cost meger bucks.
And the money tree will keep giving until the treasuary has no money again.

 

[sahel]

no need to manufacture a economic crisis, Labour policy is to nationalise lots of things and spend £500Bn. this will lead to a significant rise inflation, and high taxation to attempt to control. in his socialist view this doesnt matter as only the wealthy will be hit, forgetting those with wealth are those he needs to lend him money. question, if a governmernt has just taken your investment or debased the currecny, would you invest with them?

if he's doing genuine wargaming of the run on the pound, the conclusion should be dont do the things that cause a run on the pound, not do it anyway and hope to cope.

There is nothing wrong with borrowing money and our national debt as a percentage of gdp is not particulatly high in historic terms. If you can borrow money at 3 % and make a return that is in excess of 3% all is well. At the moment the UK can borrow at very low interest rates so does it not make sense to do so?
When people quote the interest burden etc they never seem to take into account the profits/rents/increased ecoonomic activity/ increased tax take that arises from the money borrowed. And when they say "future generations will pay" they dont seem to worry about leaving these generations with a broken NH S, no housing dreadful infrastructure and appaling productivity.

 

[CherryInHove]

The fact that anyone can complain about this is absolute lunacy.

The Shadow Chancellor last night said “scenario plans” were being worked up by teams of experts in case a fledgling administration faces “a potential assault”.

A huge crash in the value of sterling and investors pulling their cash out of the UK are scenarios currently under scrutiny, he revealed.

So... They're making their plans to try to win the election and then they're working out what scenarios could happen if they win and they're working out how they would deal with worst case scenarios.

Surely, no matter how much you love the Tories, you have to see that is a good thing? Much better to plan for the worst case scenario than to just assume that everything will be fine and plan for best case.

This is a complete non-story that people are blowing out of all proportion because they're idiots.

 

[beorhthelm]

oh it make sense now. the audience for McDonnells comments was Momentum, he is preparing a state of mind of battles ahead, the establishment/bourgeoisie will attack Labour. some comments above seems this message is being received loud and clear. prepare for revolution.

 

[sahel]

The fact that anyone can complain about this is absolute lunacy.



So... They're making their plans to try to win the election and then they're working out what scenarios could happen if they win and they're working out how they would deal with worst case scenarios.

Surely, no matter how much you love the Tories, you have to see that is a good thing? Much better to plan for the worst case scenario than to just assume that everything will be fine and plan for best case.

This is a complete non-story that people are blowing out of all proportion because they're idiots.

I agree with you except they are not all idiots unfortunately. They include journalists looking for a story and others looking to damage Labour's chances by playing into the narrative of "Labour extremism". A load of rubbish of course but widely believed

 

[ManOfSussex]

oh it make sense now. the audience for McDonnells comments was Momentum, he is preparing a state of mind of battles ahead, the establishment/bourgeoisie will attack Labour. some comments above seems this message is being received loud and clear. prepare for revolution.

Or you could look at it as just being stress testing on various scenarios as lots of organisations do. The US company I used to work for regularly conducted these ranging from the economic effects of a severe drought in The US mid west, to a war between Israel and Iran and the oil price going through the roof.

 

[Biscuit]

Always voted Labour, but since Corbyn stated he wouldn't use our nuclear deterrent I've stopped listening to anything he, or his party, has to say.

Hopefully they sort out their top table pronto. In the meantime I'll vote Lib Dems. Unless they water down their stance any further. But I like them, and I like their opposition to Brexit.

 

[CherryInHove]

Or you could look at it as just being stress testing on various scenarios as lots of organisations do. The US company I used to work for regularly conducted these ranging from the economic effects of a severe drought in The US mid west, to a war between Israel and Iran and the oil price going through the roof.

Yes, we have to do all of these things. We have to make sure the company is going to be able to stay solvent in the case of another crash like 2008 etc. It doesn't mean that we're expecting that to happen, it's just a sensible way to run a company (or a country).

 

[beorhthelm]

Or you could look at it as just being stress testing on various scenarios as lots of organisations do. The US company I used to work for regularly conducted these ranging from the economic effects of a severe drought in The US mid west, to a war between Israel and Iran and the oil price going through the roof.

absolutely. however politicians dont normally announce "we're war-gaming our policies being rejected", because they have faith in their policy. its not that they are war-gaming thats odd, its the fact they are telling people about this particular one that is. if they were playing through consequence of policy as you suggest, the obvious reaction might be to change policy, but it isn't. hence an alternative conclusion.