Having 3 choices makes the odds larger not smaller.
128/2178 or approximately 5%
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[Albion] João Pedro's Penalties to end 2023
- Thread starter Papa Lazarou
- Start date
128/2178 or approximately 5%
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
Plus 2 from 2 against Chelsea and Raya in preseason friendlies, although the former was in the USA.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Just to add, I and others have discussed this before, although the info isn't as informed as what the OP on this thread has provided:
[Albion] - Joao Pedro Brazilian Maestro
I thought he looked good whilst we were cruising. When the pressure was on, he reverted back to a typical Brazilian.....I like him, though He's like a nice Richarlison.
www.northstandchat.com
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,144
Excellent discussion.
The stuttered run up is significant. There's going to be a reason for it. For a start, it gives him time.
I think that a) he's keeping his options open and b) he is trying to prompt the keeper to decide which way he's going to dive and betray it with a 'tell'.
It's only at the end of the run up that he looks at the ball to ensure a clean contact.
As an aside, Pedro's 'tell' (position of his kicking foot) comes too late for the keeper, who has little time to anticipate if Pedro is going to play a standard shot off the knuckle of his big toe (to go left) or open up his foot to side foot it to the right. The side foot is the more difficult shot, but Pedro is adept at it.
However, this still does not explain the low 1 in 8 times the keeper has guessed right. Something else is going on.
The stuttered run up is significant. There's going to be a reason for it. For a start, it gives him time.
I think that a) he's keeping his options open and b) he is trying to prompt the keeper to decide which way he's going to dive and betray it with a 'tell'.
It's only at the end of the run up that he looks at the ball to ensure a clean contact.
As an aside, Pedro's 'tell' (position of his kicking foot) comes too late for the keeper, who has little time to anticipate if Pedro is going to play a standard shot off the knuckle of his big toe (to go left) or open up his foot to side foot it to the right. The side foot is the more difficult shot, but Pedro is adept at it.
However, this still does not explain the low 1 in 8 times the keeper has guessed right. Something else is going on.
Indeed - excellent discussion
And I cannot believe that the 1 in 8 correct guesses by the opposition keeper is “luck” - as you say, there’s something else going on. You can imagine the amount of time our opponents spend analysing this - and still they get it wrong almost all the time!
fly high
Well-known member
Would rather no one works it out so he just keeps scoring them.Indeed - excellent discussion
And I cannot believe that the 1 in 8 correct guesses by the opposition keeper is “luck” - as you say, there’s something else going on. You can imagine the amount of time our opponents spend analysing this - and still they get it wrong almost all the time!
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
- Thread starter
- #67
To complete the analysis, the 3 pens he scored for Watford are in this video
The keeper guessed right 1 of the 3. The one he guessed right was a mirror image of the Luton penalty, just a little wider.
The other 2 were both along the ground almost in opposite corners.
The keeper guessed right 1 of the 3. The one he guessed right was a mirror image of the Luton penalty, just a little wider.
The other 2 were both along the ground almost in opposite corners.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
This is key. We can analyse, but let's not nail it for the oppo.
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 12,138
that's what I meant.
I’m fascinated by this subject, because what went on with my own penalties has always amazed me.
I was a solid amateur player - all my metrics would have been completely average compared with my peers - except across my competitive matches I took 26 penalties, and scored 24 of them. I utilised no (conscious) trickery, and yet the keeper went the wrong way just about EVERY time.
Its a completely different situation to JP or any professional of course, because there was no video evidence for the opposition to analyse - so I was able to always go my same favoured side, but somehow, something in my body shape always sent their weight the wrong way. It’s like there WAS a ‘tell’ - but it was wrong!
<edit> having said there was no video - there is of one - the final pen in the shootout, at 1:01 here:
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,144
That's a very good penalty. The keeper didn't move. But on closer inspection, actually he did.
I've looked at your clip, and I've played it a few times.
The first time I played it, it fooled me. Obviously not on subsequent replays. But I can see why it fooled the keeper.
The other observation is that like me, you are left footed, which a keeper would have had less experience of facing.
Now play the video, and pause it as you're just about to take the kick, when your knee is over the ball.
The keeper has his weight on his right foot, has taken his left foot off the ground and is about to dive to his left. But why?
I couldn't see where you were looking, so I'm going to focus on your body shape.
You are set up to take a standard shot, off your big toe, which - should - go to the keeper's left.
If you had set up to take a side foot (to go the keeper's right), then your knee wouldn't have been over the ball. It would have been slightly offset and behind the ball.
However, a sidefoot is designed to be low (all Pedro's pens that go to the right are low sidefoots). That's his tell. You didn't give that tell because you weren't set up to sidefoot it, until the final moment. It probably helped that yours was high as well, like a standard shot. It's not easy to see in the video, but you must have turned your foot at the last moment - not an easy shot to get right.
This is why the keeper was set to dive left but remained rooted to the spot. You didn't give him enough time to signal your true intentions. I think this is what Pedro does.
So my conclusion, based on firm video evidence, is that you are a witch and you should be ducked in Falmer pond until you confess. Hope this helps.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
- Thread starter
- #72
Burn the witch
LOL. A group of random fans on social media likely to let the cat out of the bag when the combined masses of the PL analyst teams with unlimited resources, camera angles, replays, access to psychologists etc etc haven’t yet got a Scooby about it ? I wouldn’t worry too much
I think that's it - that I open up my foot very late, and that's what fooled them.
There's only one other on video - taken at half-time at the Amex, against Albion U21 keeper Dan East, with £500 riding on it (Soccer AM's 'Take it like a Fan' segment), but the video is on someone's FaceBook page, and I've no idea how to save / post it. The penalty is EXACTLY the same as the one in the REMF game.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
- Thread starter
- #75
With his Watford penalties includes (3), the chart looks like this:
The keeper has guessed right 18% of the time over his career in England, with (obvs) 82% guessing wrongly.
The has placed 8/11 (73%) along the ground.
The keeper has guessed right 18% of the time over his career in England, with (obvs) 82% guessing wrongly.
The has placed 8/11 (73%) along the ground.
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,144
Observations:
1. The two pens where the keeper guessed right, were off the ground. This could be just chance of course. There is another one off the ground (Tot 2), where the keeper did not guess right.
2. Pedro seems to place them better when he takes a standard shot to the left. The sidefooters (the more difficult shot) to the right are not as bunched. This is probably to be expected.
3. Not all Pedro's pens to the right are low sidefooters, as I wrongly suggested in an earlier post. The one that stands out is the one where the keeper guessed it right and got a hand to it.
Having watched the game with him, I know how excited @Papa Lazarou is at updating this, particularly given the keeper went the wrong way both times.
Chop, chop fella - we're waiting!
Chop, chop fella - we're waiting!
- Aug 24, 2020
- 7,144
The forum is agog. Small groups of middle aged men are murmuring to each other. Women are becoming moist in anticipation.
What will the findings of @Papa Lazarou be?
Luckily nobody has access to NSC other than ourselves. Phew!