[Albion] João Pedro's Penalties to end 2023

[Jim in the West]

Bryan Mbuemo takes a great penalty - obvs not had many opportunities, but with Toney out he has six from six. He almost stops in his run-up, waits for the keeper to commit, then rolls it in the other side of the goal. His “gift” is to be able to hit the ball cleanly whilst looking at the keeper. Once perfected it is an almost faultless method. It’s clearly based on Toney’s example, but possibly better.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

There is also a possibility that it's just an odd stat and nothing to do with Pedro at all.

The keeper guessing the correct side from just 1 in 8 attempts is impressive, but not impossible.
In reality he is currently on a run of 7 without the keeper guessing correctly.
odds of that are 1/128
Actually the keeper has 3 choices to make, so the odds are actually much smaller (cba to work it out)

Prior to the last FA Cup Draw, Man United had 12 consecutive home draws.
Odds of 1/4096.
Now that's an anomaly!.....

Let's see if he can keep it going for another 8 pens, then we can start claiming technique/witchcraft.

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Didn’t he miss one in a pre-season friendly? What happened there?

 

[WATFORD zero]

I'm now starting to feel guilty analysing it so much. I really would prefer it to stay as witchcraft or magic

 

[Stat Brother]

I'm now starting to feel guilty analysing it so much. I really would prefer it to stay as witchcraft or magic

I'd prefer it if he stopped taking them.
The inevitability takes out all the jeopardy.
Had he been taking the penalty v Man Utd I'd have left and got on the first train.

I want Pascal 'will he won't he' Gross back.

 

[peterward]

At the Spurs match the other night we were discussing that João Pedro always seems to send the keeper the other way. As the club published a video today of all of his goals, I decided to do some rudimentary analysis of where he aims and how often the keeper guesses right.

João Pedro has in fact taken 8 penalties for Brighton.

Premier League:

• Luton Home
• Nottingham Forest Away
• Spurs Home (2)

Europa League:

• AEK Athens Home (2)
• Marseilles Away
• AEK Athens Home

Of these, as the picture below shows, only 1 time has the keeper guessed right (12.5%), which was his first for us, against Luton, where the keeper actually got his hand to the shot.

All of the others, in green, the keeper went the wrong way (87.5%).

Where he's taken 2 in the same game, he's not gone the same way for the 2nd.

A lot of his penalties are kept along the ground too. Only the one v Luton and the 2nd v Spurs the other night were lifted at all.

So, does he wait for the keeper to move? He certainly seems to have a knack of sending the keeper the wrong way so far.

View attachment 171956

I've considered the question too, of how he always seems to send keeper wrong way, but on watching him v someone like Ivan Toney, they do seem to differ.


Toney is looking up the whole time, at keeper and not at ball as he strikes.

Pedro seems to be looking (giving eyes) in the stuttered run up but just as he approaches ball, it looks like he then looks down just before kicking it and focuses on ball as he strikes it and as the keeper generally first moves.

Toney I think is watching keeper then puts it other side.

Joào I believe does it with eyes in run up, but has a set side and isn't watching keepers move as he strikes it.

 

[peterward]

Can’t see it…

It’s baffling but has to be the eyes at the start or the run up - whatever it is it works…

View attachment 171964

AEK away.. he then hits that to his right, keepers left.


Maybe his right arm downish and his left arm fully horizontal is some sort of additional learned trick with body position that makes keeper think he's going other way?

 

[WATFORD zero]

AEK away.. he then hits that to his right, keepers left.


Maybe his right arm downish and his left arm fully horizontal is some sort of additional learned trick with body position that makes keeper think he's going other way?

Maybe some early eyes/psychological stuff, then backed up by a lot of work on body shape at the point of contact is sufficient to send the keeper the wrong way most of the time

 

[Si Gull]

There is also a possibility that it's just an odd stat and nothing to do with Pedro at all.

The keeper guessing the correct side from just 1 in 8 attempts is impressive, but not impossible.
In reality he is currently on a run of 7 without the keeper guessing correctly.
odds of that are 1/128
Actually the keeper has 3 choices to make, so the odds are actually much smaller (cba to work it out)

Prior to the last FA Cup Draw, Man United had 12 consecutive home draws.
Odds of 1/4096.
Now that's an anomaly!.....

Let's see if he can keep it going for another 8 pens, then we can start claiming technique/witchcraft.

Whilst I'm loving the analysis of his technique, and hope he really does have a special skill, you're right that there's still a fair chance that he's just been lucky with the keepers going the wrong way. As you say, time will tell

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Didn’t he miss one in a pre-season friendly? What happened there?

He scored two pens, so who did he miss against?

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Anyone know if he missed any for watford?
I see he only scored 3 in 3 seasons, so assume he wasn't the regular taker.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'm now starting to feel guilty analysing it so much. I really would prefer it to stay as witchcraft or magic

You do know what is actual name is, right?

João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus

 

[Bakero]

Interestingly, penalty conversion is at an all-time high throughout the league. xG for a pen is 0.78 but this season ~90% have been scored.

Just 5 teams have missed one so far, with no team missing more than one

Premier League - Penalties received

Diese Statistik der Premier League gibt Aufschluss, welcher Verein die meisten Elfmeter in der 23/24 erhalten hat und es wird zusätzlich die Erfolgsquote angezeigt.

www.transfermarkt.co.uk

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Interestingly, penalty conversion is at an all-time high throughout the league. xG for a pen is 0.78 but this season ~90% have been scored.

Just 5 teams have missed one so far, with no team missing more than one

Premier League - Penalties received

Diese Statistik der Premier League gibt Aufschluss, welcher Verein die meisten Elfmeter in der 23/24 erhalten hat und es wird zusätzlich die Erfolgsquote angezeigt.

www.transfermarkt.co.uk

I remember reading that although the Xg remains the same for penalties, statistically the conversion rate goes down significantly if the team is level or behind, when the penalty is awarded.

I think the proportion of pens scored when the team is already ahead is over 90%

 

[peterward]

Anyone know if he missed any for watford?
I see he only scored 3 in 3 seasons, so assume he wasn't the regular taker.

I saw an interview with him and he said hes only ever missed one, and that was when he was playing in Brazil.

No idea if he ever took one for Watford, but if he did or didnt, he's not missed any yet whilst in England.

 

[Baldseagull]

In the one example for us where the keeper goes the right way, the keeper doesn't move till he hits it, and in that example he hits it harder and more into the corner. My reckoning is that by not looking at the keeper, the keeper is less likely to fake a move one way then dive the other, he spots the keepers move in his peripheral vision and goes the other way. If the keeper doesnt move, he hits it harder and wider.
If not, he is using magic, so either watchcraft or witchcraft.

 

[Seagull58]

What one did he miss?

The only man to save a Premier League penalty taken by Le Tissier? That would be Nottingham Forest's Mark Crossley in March 1993.

 

[dazzer6666]

Maybe Dr Mitoma (BSc Dribbling) has helped…..using his studies in terms of spotting almost-imperceptible weight transfer of the keeper indicating which way he’s going.

 

[Bozza]

I saw an interview with him and he said hes only ever missed one, and that was when he was playing in Brazil.

No idea if he ever took one for Watford, but if he did or didnt, he's not missed any yet whilst in England.

Three from three for Watford, making him nine from nine in England.

João Pedro - Penalty goals

This is the detailed penalty statistic of João Pedro of Brighton & Hove Albion. The statistic shows in detail how many penalties the player took in his career.

www.transfermarkt.co.uk

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Three from three for Watford, making him nine from nine in England.

View attachment 172021

João Pedro - Penalty goals

This is the detailed penalty statistic of João Pedro of Brighton & Hove Albion. The statistic shows in detail how many penalties the player took in his career.

www.transfermarkt.co.uk

11 from 11 if you include Europa League matches.

Unless he scored any cup penalties for Watford too.