Jeremy Corbyn.

[seagullsovergrimsby]

we have all had good times on a plumper.......not sure "used them" is very PC

Totally misread the post at first and thought the thread had seriously veered off at a tangent with the mention of a plumber

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

to be quite frank a lot of people on here are saying what they want to be the case rather than looking at cold hard facts. Here are a few facts

At the last election;
5% of the total electorate voted Liberal
8% of the total electorate voted UKIP
20% voted Labour
24% Voted Conservative
9% voted Green SNP Plaid Cymru or one of the irish parties
34% didnt vote

The largest block is the non voters. the reality is the labour party dont need to win even one Tory liberal or Ukip voter over, if the can get sufficient non voters to vote for them. The younger one is the less likely they are to have voted. also the lower your income the less likely you are to have voted.

these are all statistical facts.

Some opinions. I personally dont believe any of the labour leadership candidate are likely to lead a party to an absolute majority. I believe the next election result is likely to be a hung parliament. The last election showed Britain to be very divided politically, I see no reason to believe this will change with the massive austerity programme coming our way. To see a hung parliament the tories need to lose 6 seats. I think this will happen before the next election though bye election losses.

What is dividing the UK isnt the traditional left/right split as we have seen in the past, but those advocating austerity in some way made up of traditional mainstream politicians of the tories and most of the labour MP's and an anti austerity grouping made up of the greens SNP Plaid and about 40-50 labour MP's. Whilst this may loosely relate to a left right split it doesnt explain for all views.

A lot of the non voters dont identify with either the Labour or Tory party. seeing them as outmoded and not speaking to them. This is why both the nationalist parties did so well. However the vast majority of non voters are made up of younger and or poorer voters. These are the ones feeling the pain of austerity most directly. A party that can mobilise these voters can potentially at least double their votes. The Tories cant do that. The 3 mainstream labour leaders cant do this. Jeremy Corbyn potentially can and seems to be doing it. 140.000 people have registered join or vote as a supporter of the labour party since May. Overwhelmingly they are either young voters or trade unionists like myself. I believe what we are seeing with Jeremy Corbyn shows which way they are voting.

Last year at the Scottish independence referendum we saw a mass mobilisation behind a yes vote. this mobilisation carried over to the general election where you saw high turnouts in areas of traditionally low turnouts. Young people are waking up to the reality of austerity and dont like what it means for them. Quite rightly too. If austerity will be hard for a 50 year ...imagine how much harder it will be felt by a 20 year old. They are paying for the mistakes of the older generation and are consequently rejecting the political solutions of the older generation.

Now very clearly although there is some correlatory evidence to back up my opinion, it is an opinion. it may be wrong. But i do know all the nonsense spouted about how a left wing candidate will take us back to the 1980's is meaningless to young people. To have any memory good or bad of politics in the 1980's youd have to be over 40. People are far more likely to respond to direct personal experiences than some nonsense spouted about how bad the left were under Michael Foot.

Finally one interesting thing I have noticed is how silent leading Tory politicians have been about this all. True they are enjoying the disarray of the labour party and who can blame them. Id be having a great time if they were in such disarray. Which they will be in 12 months when the Euro referendum bites. But don't think for a second they don't see the same statistics I do and can work out the same conclusions I do. They are quiet because they are afraid of what Corbyn is raising and planning how to counter it. The gang of 3 labour candidates are so vocal spouting nonsense about Corbyn because they see their political futures flying out the window. I'd like to say I feel for them. but that would be a lie.

Apologises its taken me a while to reply - had to trawl through the absolute binfestry which has been occurring on here.

Cleggmania was a real thing – the Liberal Democrats had a wave of support on a inspiring and charismatic leader that inspired non-voters and young people whilst promised the earth and to change politics forever. What happened? The Liberal vote went up by a mere 1% and the Lib Dems lost seats.



It may be true that that the largest block came from the ‘non-voter’ category, but the approach that a Corbyn led Labour government would not need to win any Tory votes doesn't address the issue I raised. If Corbyn had a message which resonated with every single person that had didn't vote last time (which is impossible realistically) that gives him 34% - true, but there is no guarantee that the 20% of the population that voted Labour would also connect with that same Corbyn message – and votes could easily be lost to the other three parties.

In reality the turnout of the population is never going to go above 85% - one only has to look at the statistics, the Scottish Referendum turnout of 84.6% was the highest ever recorded for any election (or referendum) since the introduction of Universal Suffrage.

Therefore, lets entertain the theory that Corbyns message does resonate with those who don’t vote – and it produces the highest turnout ever at 85%, which increases the % of the population voting by 19% in just five years (near impossible but still), what is more there is the argument that people could register to vote just to stop Corbyn. Therefore in reality – it is never going to be the case that there are significant numbers of a non-voting block to propel Corbyn to government, this goes back to my original point – a message which appeals to non-voters could lead to the right of Labour voters going to the Conservatives or especially UKIP in the north.

If they say a week is a long time in politics then five years is an eternity, no one can predict what will happen in five years time with any confidence and there is no basis for saying the likely outcome is a hung parliament. With Corbyn in charge of Labour and near full-employment by 2020 (74% of job created are full time) being reached alongside eradicating the deficit what is to say the Conservative vote doesn't go up further? - I am not saying this will happen, but it’s just as likely as your theory of a hung parliament. Add in the SNP – which has entrenched nationalist support in seats Labour MUST win to be the largest party in the Commons every again, alongside the Liberal Democrats having a new leader and UKIP gaining from a likely ‘no EU’ vote – as the SNP did. It is safe to say that the outcome of the next election is impossible to predict. By the way, why do you think the Tories will lose 6 seats in by-elections? Why wont Labour lose any? Isn’t feasible that a SDP style split could happen if Corbyn was to be elected?
I would disagree that there is an austerity divide – if we look at support nationwide the following tables show that of all the parties, the Conservatives and UKIP have the most ‘spread out’ support.




It is true that 140,000 people have registered but let’s be honest and realise that not all or even half have registered just for Corbyn, it is true that the hard left as well as some Tories have destabilised the process, which is why two Labour MP’s now want the process to be suspended so they are able to properly vet the new party ‘affiliates’ - as was suggested in The Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...genuine-labour-supporters-leadership-election

There is no evidence to suggest that ‘overwhelmingly they either the the young or trade unionists – who are automatically signed up anyway – support Corbyn, it’s just one of many possibilities.

Just a few short months ago, of those who voted in a very important election (unlike 2001 or 2005) they voted public spending, getting the deficit down and the finances under control, it seems highly unlikely that opinions will change in five years.
They aren’t quite because they are scared of Corbyn – in fact last week George Osbourne endorsed him into winning!


Just a final point not related to yours, but on the IRA Corbyn binfest. I’m a Unionist, always have and will be, but to accuse Corbyn of being a traitor is wrong IMO, Thathcer knew that the only solution to the conflict would be a political and not military one, hence why she invited the IRA over for talks. Corbyn is also right about Israel & Palestine,that conflict is not going to be solved by violence, it just the Northern Ireland needs a long term political peace deal and power sharing arrangement.

 

[Soulman]

They were indeed killing our soldiers in 1916 but as you even admit it was a war so that's what both sides do in war - care to highlight what British citizens were killed in that war ? It is relevant because we, the British, started the conflict - we were invaders. We then murdered Irish civilians using trumped up charges as an excuse to execute them. We then starved many others to death. THAT is why the IRA came into being. I don't condone their tactics and I certainly don't agree with two IRA being allowed into our parliament but only a fool would suggest we didn't bring the conflict upon ourselves - or are we suggesting that Germany didn't invite war by invading Poland. But I do understand their beef with the British - I would hold their views if say France decided to invade Sussex and would have no hesitation in attacking their forces.

I have the utmost respect for our armed forces - I have many family members who have served in the Army and Navy and mates still in the RAF - and I have worked directly with the forces in various jobs BUT that doesn't mean we as a nation are blameless for the atrocities that happened in Ireland.

Few would argue with your views, but to bring up the past and put them into this situation has little bearing. Unlike the government at the time and Royals who were negotiating, this potential Labour leader was a supporter of the IRA.
If this chap is made the leader I think when his past is really in the public eye then most voters will not vote for the party. Shooting themselves in the foot again.

 

[alfredmizen]

I guess abuse is much more comprehensive - calling people stupid, ****ing imbeciles etc. Wait, I've only just noticed someone called you Bushy - I'll stop wasting my time on you.

as ive said you dissappear when confronted with something you cant answer , i remember you asked for evidence one on a thread about pakistani muslims marrying first cousins and the genetic defects it produces, evidence was provided and you refused to answer, you can now if you like , care to ?

 

[Gwylan]

Cleggmania was a real thing – the Liberal Democrats had a wave of support on a inspiring and charismatic leader that inspired non-voters and young people whilst promised the earth and to change politics forever. What happened? The Liberal vote went up by a mere 1% and the Lib Dems lost seats.

The Lib Dem didn't go up - it fell by 15% (it was the Labour vote that went up by 1%). The reason that the LD vote went down is that lots of young people felt betrayed by Clegg's volte face on tuition fees.

I agree with your premise though- it's near impossible for any Labour leader to come close to winning next time round, the numbers are too stacked against them. But, as Clegg found, young people can present a serious voting bloc and I do think the Tory assault on the young will hurt them in time - not next time but, as I said earlier, 2025 will be very different

 

[beorhthelm]

Apologises its taken me a while to reply -

blimey, thats some reply.

on one point, the affiliate membership and calls to suspend the election, Corbyn is on very dodgy ground asking for genuine supporters when half his nominees from the parliamentary party have gone on record they are not actually voting for him. he'll take whatever support comes his way, regardless of their motives. like all politicians really.

...But, as Clegg found, young people can present a serious voting bloc and I do think the Tory assault on the young will hurt them in time - not next time but, as I said earlier, 2025 will be very different

i think he was refering to 2010 on the % voting. I dont think this youth voting bloc exists, unless you are suggesting it voted Conservative, on the evidence of blue wiping out the yellow of the south and south west. i dont fully understand the abandonment of Liberals, but its more complex than young voters.

 

[Pavilionaire]

This thread is f**ked. For the latecomers a summary of views:

33% - Corbyn is Jesus
67% - Corbyn is an unelectable, IRA-sympathising c**t.

 

[Hampster Gull]

You are confusing the loss end of empire , where the majority wanted an end to British rule( and then scrambling to come and live here) with people who wrap themselves in the union jack and are determined to stay under British rule .

Ignoring the mild racism, i am not confusing anything other than you. The empire was lost as it failed to bestow economic favour greater than could be obtained elsewhere and the possible split of scotland is linked. only a couple of things needed to make NI a real possiblity also. Ireland willing to bestow economic favour greater than the UKs and demographics.

 

[alfredmizen]

Ignoring the mild racism, i am not confusing anything other than you. The empire was lost as it failed to bestow economic favour greater than could be obtained elsewhere and the possible split of scotland is linked. only a couple of things needed to make NI a real possiblity also. Ireland willing to bestow economic favour greater than the UKs and demographics.

mild racism ??where ??
i think you're wrong on demographics , a majority of catholics in N.I wish to remain in the union, as for the economic argument i think youre wrong again , and youre applying the argument that led us into the EU and abandoning trade agreements with commonwealth countries.

 

[Hampster Gull]

This thread is f**ked. For the latecomers a summary of views:

33% - Corbyn is Jesus
67% - Corbyn is an unelectable, IRA-sympathising c**t.

I am of the view electable and unelectable, the former by labour the latter by the electorate. I dont think IRA sympathising though

 

[alfredmizen]

How would I know if its me, if you dont have the balls to leave it up. Nobody has to expose you as anything. You do well enough on your own, anyway, back to your running away from a simple question. Tell me about Corbyns Treason trial.

you've gone a bit quiet dave, busy editing your dating site profile seems this young bird is another invention of yours, i bet you had an imaginary friend as a kid

 

[Hampster Gull]

mild racism ??where ??
i think you're wrong on demographics , a majority of catholics in N.I wish to remain in the union, as for the economic argument i think youre wrong again , and youre applying the argument that led us into the EU and abandoning trade agreements with commonwealth countries.

= Majority wanted to lave and then scrambling to come and live here. Surely i dont have to unpick that for you

As for the other points, i am not wrong, you percieve i am wrong. There is a huge difference

 

[alfredmizen]

I am of the view electable and unelectable, the former by labour the latter by the electorate. I dont think IRA sympathising though

 

[Hampster Gull]

View attachment 67329

Please dont post self portraits

 

[alfredmizen]

= Majority wanted to lave and then scrambling to come and live here. Surely i dont have to unpick that for you

As for the other points, i am not wrong, you percieve i am wrong. There is a huge difference

yes , you do, what on earth is racist about that observation ??

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

The Lib Dem didn't go up - it fell by 15% (it was the Labour vote that went up by 1%). The reason that the LD vote went down is that lots of young people felt betrayed by Clegg's volte face on tuition fees.

I agree with your premise though- it's near impossible for any Labour leader to come close to winning next time round, the numbers are too stacked against them. But, as Clegg found, young people can present a serious voting bloc and I do think the Tory assault on the young will hurt them in time - not next time but, as I said earlier, 2025 will be very different

Cleggmania was 2010 and their vote did go up.

 

[Gwylan]

Cleggmania was 2010 and their vote did go up.

You didn't say that it was 2010. Not sure that the election before last is that relevant

 

[Hotchilidog]

At least Corbyn is prepared to make the case for his views rather than pandering to views he thinks may be popular. When you look at the swiftness with which this government has moved to pile in with it's more extreme and self serving policies all on the back of a mandate provided by just 24% of the electorate, a supine 'opposition' is the last thing this country needs. This government needs opposing, and an opposition that has conviction and is prepared to offer an alternative, not more of the same.

 

[Hampster Gull]

you really have to ask why british lives are more valuable than foreign ones ?? really ? if you have to ask that question you probably wont understand the answer , there is one space aboard a lifeboat , two blokes exactly the same , one british, one mexican , you alone decide who gets the space, you know nothing about either, who would you give it to?

Little englander

 

[daveinprague]

you've gone a bit quiet dave, busy editing your dating site profile seems this young bird is another invention of yours, i bet you had an imaginary friend as a kid

No need to. You FINALLY answered, admitting your term of 'traitor' is your term, and nobody elses, confirming your little englander status. Cheers.