[Football] It’s the stats that count!

[Swansman]

Yep and what is weird is that when proved wrong as with CMS or Maupay, they still think they are right. Statistics are essential in all fields, whether gambling, football, cricket, insurance or banking. But statistics without context are as useful as a chocolate tea pot. Putting the context is the skill.

 

[dazzer6666]

Too bad none of the Premier League clubs heard your wisdoms as they are all investing millions of pounds in data analysis tools and data analysts.

I’d better tell junior his Masters in performance analysis is a waste of time...........

 

[vagabond]

I’d better tell junior his Masters in performance analysis is a waste of time...........

Clearly it’s a career we don’t need, because we all know people just use stats an excuse when they play FIFA.

 

[Charity Shield 1910]

I’d better tell junior his Masters in performance analysis is a waste of time...........

Nobody is saying that statistics are a bad thing. They are however saying the football statistics, like banking statistics, or insurance statistics or cricket statistics or gambling statistics need to be interpreted and the skill is in the interpretation not looking up a statistic, because any idiot can / does do that.What any idiot can't do is put context into the statistic to then work out the best plan going forward.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Disagree. I think you're all dinosaurs.

Top teams will have top analysts and adapt accordingly.

We're doing that. Only difference is that although all the stats point to us being a top quality side if we had a goal scoring striker - we have not signed a striker.

Maybe that will change in the summer... or maybe we'll ignore the stats and not sign anyone who can score, and it'll be the same again.

I don't care if the stats point to us being a top quality side, without a decent striker. We are a very long way from that. How many of our defence or midfield would get into a top 8 side? Even if we were scoring more goals, we still wouldn't be a top half team. We are work in progress. If we get relegated, that work will be interrupted, as we will lose some key players.
At the moment we lack accuracy in our play. A prerequisite of a top side. We also have concentration issues. Defensively, we still give away too many soft goals. Yesterday being a prime example. Zonal marking not working again. Burn and White have no aerial presence at the back. Bissouma must have listened to all the hype because his form is dipping at just the wrong time. Top sides and top players are much more consistent.

 

[smeariestbat]

Here ye, It’s been decided!

All sports and data science centres up and down the country and around the world to be closed. Shut down. Kapoot. No more.

What’s that? You’re a data analyst for Man City? Get out. Your entire department are out of a job. Man City and all PL clubs were clearly mugs paying all your wages.

Not just football, but all professional sports who have data analysts; NFL, basketball, baseball, hockey. You’re all OUT, sorry, off you go.. because some bloke online called “smeariestbat” who used to play FIFA with his mates has decided all stats don’t count.

I do believe you missed the point, but you do you

 

[vagabond]

I do believe you missed the point, but you do you

What is your point then bud?

 

[Charity Shield 1910]

What is your point then bud?

That statistics are a essential but the skill is in the interpretation of the statistics.

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

Results only come through consistent performances. In Hughton’s final months you could barely see a goal coming such was the decline in performance.

Our performance levels this year have been great. We still have 13 points from 10 fixtures. Despite 2 defeats we’ve dominated the games.

Football is simple but it’s simplicity as a sport makes it one of the few where you can dominate all the metrics but still lose. It’s what makes it special. It’s what makes the FA cup special.

If the performances were poor you’d be worried about results, but they’re not. Players are still confident all over the pitch bar finishing. The chances missed are an anomaly. I think we just need to accept that in this instance it won’t be resolved with a change in manager.

 

[vagabond]

That statistics are a essential but the skill is in the interpretation of the statistics.

That’s not what the OP said in his opening post which I was responding to.

 

[smeariestbat]

What is your point then bud?

Statistics, on their own do not tell the full story. It doesnt matter if we had 20 shots on target to their one, if our twenty were on the halfway line with no hope of really scoring and their one was 6ft out into an open goal. It doesnt matter if we had loads more on target, their chance was better, probably than all our twenty put together. ‘Shots on target’ by itself is quite a useless statistic really.

I swear i saw a statistic once where, once the shot was taken, the speed, direction of travel, placement, keeper position etc were analysed and it was given a percentage chance of ‘going in‘ against what was an ‘average keepers’ reaction time, expected movement distance etc. giving a much better idea of the size of ‘chance at goal’ rather than proliferate shots at goal, which as said previously, doesnt really mean a lot.

 

[Charity Shield 1910]

I think you are being obtuse here.

We have key players out in March, Webster, Lamptey and Propper.

The high congestion fixture list has taken its toll on all clubs including ourselves. We've had some big games and big performances lately and it clearly affected us v WBA. Biss has been playing every game and it shows.

We have been consistant. We have been great all season, barring a few games. If we had someone who could have finished our countless chances in countless games then we would certainly be far away from the relegation zone, if not top 10.

We are not a long way from being a top side. We are literally a goalscorer away from being a top side. Whether you believe in stats or not - it's just blatantly obvious that if we had someone who could finish our chances we would not be struggling.

Agree with every word. I also would add that it has been obvious since before the season started and certainly by October, that there ws a problem up front. To pick the same centre forward every week without trying other players or something new by converting someone into a makeshift forward has been bad management.

 

[jonnyrovers]

Nobody is saying that statistics are a bad thing. They are however saying the football statistics, like banking statistics, or insurance statistics or cricket statistics or gambling statistics need to be interpreted and the skill is in the interpretation not looking up a statistic, because any idiot can / does do that.What any idiot can't do is put context into the statistic to then work out the best plan going forward.

Statistic - xG says we should be scoring lots of goals.

Fact - We don't score many goals.

Context - We are a professional football team. We need to score as many goals as possible to win games.

Solution 1 - Do nothing. We might continue to score fewer goals than are necessary to win games and be relegated.

Solution 2 - Teach the players we already have to be better at scoring goals. It's likely we are doing this already and might continue to score fewer goals than necessary etc etc etc

Solution 3 - Get a new manager. The manager has consistently demonstrated that his team creates sufficient chances for strikers to convert.

Solution 4 - Recruit players that are better at scoring goals.

In all honesty [MENTION=42007]Charity Shield 1910[/MENTION] , so far on NSC the only argument fuelled by statistics is the one I have summarised above. It is bursting with context. The context is all there to see. No-one is just looking at the stat. They are interpreting what the stat says about our football team and then coming up with solutions.

Which bit did we miss

 

[Charity Shield 1910]

Statistic - xG says we should be scoring lots of goals.

Fact - We don't score many goals.

Context - We are a professional football team. We need to score as many goals as possible to win games.

Solution 1 - Do nothing. We might continue to score fewer goals than are necessary to win games and be relegated.

Solution 2 - Teach the players we already have to be better at scoring goals. It's likely we are doing this already and might continue to score fewer goals than necessary etc etc etc

Solution 3 - Get a new manager. The manager has consistently demonstrated that his team creates sufficient chances for strikers to convert.

Solution 4 - Recruit players that are better at scoring goals.

In all honesty [MENTION=42007]Charity Shield 1910[/MENTION] , so far on NSC the only argument fuelled by statistics is the one I have summarised above. It is bursting with context. The context is all there to see. No-one is just looking at the stat. They are interpreting what the stat says about our football team and then coming up with solutions.

Which bit did we miss

I might be missing something but I thought some, well one poster was trying present some statistics as the excuse for inertia, doing nothing and as a justification for Potter putting Maupay on the team sheet every week without trying other strikers or converting another member of the squad into a temporary forward so to create competition for places.

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

Agree with every word. I also would add that it has been obvious since before the season started and certainly by October, that there ws a problem up front. To pick the same centre forward every week without trying other players or something new by converting someone into a makeshift forward has been bad management.

What team have you been watching? v Arsenal he was lambasted for trying a makeshift CF and a different approach. He’s tried all the forwards, Maupay wasn’t getting in the team when Welbeck was fully fit. He’s tried Connolly on his own, in a pair, he’s tried Tau, Ali J up front, Trossard up front. I sometimes think people haven’t actually watched us at all.

 

[A1X]

Football really is a very easy sport

Why they're trying to turn it into some sort of unfathomable scientific art

I've no idea,justify the wages I suppose

Ball hits onion bag=goal

I blame Pep Guardiola's Barcelona

I remember when Ruud Gullit talked about "sexy football" in the 1990s (I think with Chelsea) and got ridiculed for it. Then along comes this team which won stuff and people thought "oh wow, everything should look like this". Which ignored the fundamental fact they had some of the greatest players IN HISTORY all playing for them at the same time. Stick a prime Xavi, Iniesta and Messi combo in any team and they'll win you everything.

 

[Charity Shield 1910]

What team have you been watching? v Arsenal he was lambasted for trying a makeshift CF and a different approach. He’s tried all the forwards, Maupay wasn’t getting in the team when Welbeck was fully fit. He’s tried Connolly on his own, in a pair, he’s tried Tau, Ali J up front, Trossard up front. I sometimes think people haven’t actually watched us at all.

Maupay is the only forward who has had a consistent run of games. Maupay has been first on the team sheet for most of the season - and there is no justification for it.

 

[Swansman]

Maupay is the only forward who has had a consistent run of games. Maupay has been first on the team sheet for most of the season - and there is no justification for it.

How many games is a consistent run according to you?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Hahahahah.

This is one of the most ridiculous opinions I’ve ever read.

I agree.

The previous poster is presupposing that Man City assembled their squad using a team of scouts in woolly hats watching young lads playing for their works teams, rather than using data analysis.

Touching, really. I'm tempted to offer him a Bullseye and a mug of hot Bovril.

 

[Charity Shield 1910]

What team have you been watching? v Arsenal he was lambasted for trying a makeshift CF and a different approach. He’s tried all the forwards, Maupay wasn’t getting in the team when Welbeck was fully fit. He’s tried Connolly on his own, in a pair, he’s tried Tau, Ali J up front, Trossard up front. I sometimes think people haven’t actually watched us at all.

Maupay has played almost every week, the others have not. Or put another way, would you drop Maupay to the bench for the next game? I would, and I would have done so in October and looked at what I could do with the squad. He was late changing the keeper but credit to him, he got there in the end, now he is beyond late dropping Maupay to the bench.