Italian Constitutional Election - Dec 4th. Potentially another BREXIT/Trump moment?

[JC Footy Genius]

The first result of today's double-header appears to be in - the far-right have not won the Austrian Presidential election - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38202669

At the moment it looks like the far right in Austria have fully accepted the referendum result and the democratically expressed will of the majority. Interesting to see if they eventually call for yet another referendum.. or say the other sides voters didn't know what they were voting for .. or claim individual local election results give them a mandate to ignore the national vote ... definitely getting more difficult to work out who the anti democratic extremists really are.

 

[ManOfSussex]

At the moment it looks like the far right in Austria have fully accepted the referendum result and the democratically expressed will of the majority. Interesting to see if they eventually call for yet another referendum.. or say the other sides voters didn't know what they were voting for .. or claim individual local election results give them a mandate to ignore the national vote ... definitely getting more difficult to work out who the anti democratic extremists really are.

As they have Presidential Elections in Austria every 6 years, why would they call for another vote?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

As they have Presidential Elections in Austria every 6 years, why would they call for another vote?

Well, this has already been run twice in a short time frame because of supposed irregularities in the first vote. I'm sure if they get on the blower to Lib Dem HQ they could come up with a reason.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Well, this has already been run twice in a short time frame because of supposed irregularities in the first vote. I'm sure if they get on the blower to Lib Dem HQ they could come up with a reason.

Yes, it was annulled due to irregularities and re-run. I wasn't aware of any irregularities in the voting in Junes referendum here.

May I offer my commiserations to you at the final result in Austria, as this appears to be a difficult time for you.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yes, it was annulled due to irregularities and re-run. I wasn't aware of any irregularities in the voting in Junes referendum here.

May I offer my commiserations to you at the final result in Austria, as this appears to be a difficult time for you.

I am delighted with both the UK and Austrian results but only one of us might possibly (?) consider voting for a party that doesn't accept the majority vote.

 

[studio150]

Im surprised that this thread isn't full of posts from those that were continually on the Brexit thread saying wait until the Italian referendum more cards are going to fall from the EU as it is dismantled.
Instead they seem to be hiding as the markets have remained fairly stable. The Italians are used to leader changes something like number 46 or 47 since 1945 coming up. They still prefer the single currency therefore they are not leaving the eurozone. Their banks haven't failed and are not in need of a bail out from the EU currently.
So how long before these posters reappear having forgotten their earlier comments and having put the champagne and party hats away for another day.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I am delighted with both the UK and Austrian results but only one of us might possibly (?) consider voting for a party that doesn't accept the majority vote.

I certainly wont be voting Conservative ever again - I couldn't handle the stigma.

 

[larus]

Im surprised that this thread isn't full of posts from those that were continually on the Brexit thread saying wait until the Italian referendum more cards are going to fall from the EU as it is dismantled.
Instead they seem to be hiding as the markets have remained fairly stable. The Italians are used to leader changes something like number 46 or 47 since 1945 coming up. They still prefer the single currency therefore they are not leaving the eurozone. Their banks haven't failed and are not in need of a bail out from the EU currently.
So how long before these posters reappear having forgotten their earlier comments and having put the champagne and party hats away for another day.

How do we know that the ECB hasn't been stabilising the currency and/or supporting the Italian banking stocks?

The problem here is that the Italian banks are acknowledged to be in a very bad state and the Italian state cannot afford to bail them out. Added to this the potential for 5 Star to make serious gains when the next rounds of elections are held (and they are Anti EURO), then there is the potential for serious upheaval.

The banking system in interconnected, and if one bank goes down, this has a major knock-on to other banks. This may bubble along for a period yes, but don't make a naive assumption that because things have not happened yet, that all is rosy in EURO land.

 

[Soulman]

How do we know that the ECB hasn't been stabilising the currency and/or supporting the Italian banking stocks?

The problem here is that the Italian banks are acknowledged to be in a very bad state and the Italian state cannot afford to bail them out. Added to this the potential for 5 Star to make serious gains when the next rounds of elections are held (and they are Anti EURO), then there is the potential for serious upheaval.

The banking system in interconnected, and if one bank goes down, this has a major knock-on to other banks. This may bubble along for a period yes, but don't make a naive assumption that because things have not happened yet, that all is rosy in EURO land.

Agree. It is a bit early to think all is well in Italy. I think some are crowing a bit early.

 

[ManOfSussex]

This may bubble along for a period yes, but don't make a naive assumption that because things have not happened yet, that all is rosy in EURO land.

I assume the same can be said for Brexit then?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I certainly wont be voting Conservative ever again - I couldn't handle the stigma.

I know, after giving the people a referendum and promising to follow the majorities wishes they appear to keep their promises ... shameful.

 

[beorhthelm]

...The Italians are used to leader changes something like number 46 or 47 since 1945 coming up. They still prefer the single currency therefore they are not leaving the eurozone. Their banks haven't failed and are not in need of a bail out from the EU currently.

dont think you are aware of the risks involved. the Italians love changing government, the concern is that the next one will usher in parties that are anti-euro and anti-EU. *if* they gain enough seats in an upcoming election, thats a bit of a problem. secondly, some of the banks in Italy are technically insolvent, they are in desperate need of a bail out already. if one where to go under half a dozen would follow very quickly, along with a few other European bank as they all lend to each other.

the Italians are in favour of the euro and even more in favour of EU, however as it stands those institutions are doing them no favours, denying the Italian government options to support their banking sector and address the problems of negligible growth and high unemployment.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I know, after giving the people a referendum and promising to follow the majorities wishes they appear to keep their promises ... shameful.

Conservatives and promises -

I voted Labour as an 18 year old in 1997, I stopped believing in fairy tales a long time ago.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Im surprised that this thread isn't full of posts from those that were continually on the Brexit thread saying wait until the Italian referendum more cards are going to fall from the EU as it is dismantled.
Instead they seem to be hiding as the markets have remained fairly stable. The Italians are used to leader changes something like number 46 or 47 since 1945 coming up. They still prefer the single currency therefore they are not leaving the eurozone. Their banks haven't failed and are not in need of a bail out from the EU currently.
So how long before these posters reappear having forgotten their earlier comments and having put the champagne and party hats away for another day.

It is entirely possible that this is one more step towards the EU fragmenting. Lots of remain voters here have castigated the way things have gone since Brexit. 'Things are happening way too slow' has been bandied about a lot. Or when it suits, 'the pound is getting trashed, it's in freefall' etc. With both of these events, it's wise to apply caution and not look straight away for conclusions.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Conservatives and promises -

I voted Labour as an 18 year old in 1997, I stopped believing in fairy tales a long time ago.

For all the broken promises all parties make it would be churlish not to give some credit to them when they (for whatever reason) deliver on what they promise.

More importantly, at least they still seem to understand how democracy works.

 

[larus]

I assume the same can be said for Brexit then?

Yes it can IMO. But the Remainers were the ones proclaiming that the sky had fallen in with the knee-jerk reaction of the markets immediately following the vote. Then, when things started to recover and the statistics kept coming out better than forecast, they were saying that BREXIT hasn't happened yet.

But, if you want it that way, then when Article 50 gets triggered and the markets maybe react again, I hope you don't say "I told you so". Last point, the success of Brexit should be measured after we leave and have new trade deals in place, no in the intervening period where there will be lots of uncertainty, spin and vested interests wailing about their own pet desires.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Yes it can IMO. But the Remainers were the ones proclaiming that the sky had fallen in with the knee-jerk reaction of the markets immediately following the vote. Then, when things started to recover and the statistics kept coming out better than forecast, they were saying that BREXIT hasn't happened yet.

But, if you want it that way, then when Article 50 gets triggered and the markets maybe react again, I hope you don't say "I told you so". Last point, the success of Brexit should be measured after we leave and have new trade deals in place, no in the intervening period where there will be lots of uncertainty, spin and vested interests wailing about their own pet desires.

I try not to listen to it anymore, but its all done in the hope we will change our minds and keep us all under control like a load of sheep. We know the EU is shit, it's just a shame these pro EU politicians will never admit it.

 

[ManOfSussex]

More importantly, at least they still seem to understand how democracy works.

A bit like the Liberal Democrats, who you so dislike and I've never voted for in a General Election, by daring to argue a standpoint you don't like.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

A bit like the Liberal Democrats, who you so dislike and I've never voted for in a General Election, by daring to argue a standpoint you don't like.

Nothing like the Lib Dem's in relation to accepting the democratic majority wishes. Of course they can argue their case and they can be rightly pilloried for adopting an undemocratic stance for purely party survival/advantage reasons.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Nothing like the Lib Dem's in relation to accepting the democratic majority wishes. Of course they can argue their case and they can be rightly pilloried for adopting an undemocratic stance for purely party survival/advantage reasons.

Good for The Liberal Democrats. They're arguing a cause and growing as a party all the time. Personally I think they will win seats back off the Conservatives at the next election that they lost to them in 2015. An uncomfortable thought for the more paranoiac Brexit voters out there, I'm sure.

I'm pleased I voted for Catherine Bearder in the European Election in 2014, the one-and-only time I voted Lib-Dem incidentally. She argued to the Government for fishing quotas to be re-addressed to help smaller fleets, such as in Hastings. I suppose our UKIP MEP's were too busy drinking to bother.