Is the Euro dead in the water?

[Bob'n'weave]

Just clarifying my concerns. No wet beds here.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/16/euro-house-of-cards-to-collapse-warns-ecb-prophet/



Harsh tone apology accepted.

 

[Soulman]

Whatever is going on, I know it was bloody expensive in Berlin last weekend. €18 for a G&T and a glass of prosecco

I know, I popped out over here for a bite last week, two pizzas with coleslaw and salad, large merlot aND a pint, cost £15. Expensive eh.

 

[larus]

Thats all very precise and all that but does not address my initial point. I'm not comparing pound to euro performance, i'm suggesting that the euro is in trouble, as in it may not exist in two or three years time, unlike the pound which is not.

I actually agree with you. On a lot of the Brexit threads I have made the point that the Euro is unsustainable. Even one of the architects of the Euro project has admitted this recently. The only reason that the currency unions of the US/UK work is that there is political and fiscal union. The US is a federation of the states, but the federation has fiscal and monetary control (albeit that the states raise their own state taxes too). The same applies within the UK. Central government/BoE are responsible for fiscal/monetary policy so it all works fine.

Within the EURO area, there is monetary policy, but nothing on the fiscal side. Yes, commission may set fiscal rules (3% budget deficit/surplus targets), but when a country fails there is no fiscal transfer between states. If, for example, Wales were to collapse economically, the whole of the UK would be impacted financially, as any expenditure from the government to support it would be at the national level.

The EURO structure is killing countries like Portugal, Greece, Italy and others to a lesser extent (Spain, France). The high levels of unemployment there are directly linked to the EURO. They were able to borrow before the financial crisis at very low rates as they were in the EURO, but their economies aren't like Germany. Many people warned it was a disaster waiting to happen, and it is happening. It's only the sheer political will of the institutions keeping the whole festering project alive at whatever cost (in terms of misery) to the populations of some countries. It will collapse (or at least several countries will leave).

 

[Blue3]

Well despite all the terrible Eurozone news the Pound is down to 1.18 from 1.20 on Friday. Although not sure how much can be inferred from that.

It's the stock markets that we need yo be worried about along with 100% mortgages and the removal of tax relief for buy to let, manufacturing is such a small part of our output these days we heavily depend on stocks,shares and the property market which drives these from a UK perspective it's all a pack of cards once any one of these fails the rest will follow.

My predictions for 2017 are as follows:

Supreme Court upholds Brexit ruling
Britain triggers Articale 50 as set out
French national front win the presidential election but it's close
The far right Dutch party win
Mrs Merkel remains chancellor but with a much weakened coalition
U.K. Government concedes it's forced to put outcome of Brexit negotiations to a vote in parliament
Mrs May uses this as a platform and calls a snap general election
SNP win an even bigger majority totally wiping out the three main parties in Scotland
UKIP win no parliamentary seats and sees it share of the vote plummet
Labour surprise many doing better than predicted but unable to win an outright
The LibDems make major strides forward but are still way behind the SNP for third largest party
The Conservative Party win the election but without a working majority
Labour,SNP and LibDems form a coalition
The deal will involve Scotland gaining much more self government and the U.K. holding a second referendum on the terms of Brexit

 

[Bob'n'weave]

I actually agree with you. On a lot of the Brexit threads I have made the point that the Euro is unsustainable. Even one of the architects of the Euro project has admitted this recently. The only reason that the currency unions of the US/UK work is that there is political and fiscal union. The US is a federation of the states, but the federation has fiscal and monetary control (albeit that the states raise their own state taxes too). The same applies within the UK. Central government/BoE are responsible for fiscal/monetary policy so it wll works fine.

Within the EURO area, there is monetary policy, but nothing on the fiscal side. Yes, commission may set fiscal rules (3% budget deficit/surplus targets), but when a country fails there is no fiscal transfer between states. If, for example, Wales was to collapse economically, the whole of the UK would be impacted financially, as any expenditure from the government to support it would be at the national level.

The EURO structure is killing countries like Portugal, Greece, Italy and others to a lesser extent (Spain, France). The high levels of unemployment there are directly linked to the EURO. They were able to borrow before the financial crisis at very low rates as they were in the EURO, but their economies aren't like Germany. Many people warned it was a disaster waiting to happen, and it is happening. It's only the sheer political will of the institutions keeping the whole festering project alive at whatever cost (in terms of misery) to the populations of some countries. It will collapse (or at least several countries will leave).

Good post. I give till 2020.
I have a personal interest (lived there for a brief period) of what the Euro did to Greece and see it as a global disgrace dressed up as something else. As a peripheral gripe, I would suggest that deal offered to Greece amounts to extortion and don't get me started on the WW2 restorative payments that Germany still have not paid to them.

 

[spring hall convert]

I'm sure someone more clued up than me can answer this for me.

Even if we were to withdraw from the EU, the Euro going belly up isn't at all good news for us is it?

 

[Eeyore]

It's the stock markets that we need yo be worried about along with 100% mortgages and the removal of tax relief for buy to let, manufacturing is such a small part of our output these days we heavily depend on stocks,shares and the property market which drives these from a UK perspective it's all a pack of cards once any one of these fails the rest will follow.

My predictions for 2017 are as follows:

Supreme Court upholds Brexit ruling
Britain triggers Articale 50 as set out
French national front win the presidential election but it's close
The far right Dutch party win
Mrs Merkel remains chancellor but with a much weakened coalition
U.K. Government concedes it's forced to put outcome of Brexit negotiations to a vote in parliament
Mrs May uses this as a platform and calls a snap general election
SNP win an even bigger majority totally wiping out the three main parties in Scotland
UKIP win no parliamentary seats and sees it share of the vote plummet
Labour surprise many doing better than predicted but unable to win an outright
The LibDems make major strides forward but are still way behind the SNP for third largest party
The Conservative Party win the election but without a working majority
Labour,SNP and LibDems form a coalition
The deal will involve Scotland gaining much more self government and the U.K. holding a second referendum on the terms of Brexit

She can't do that without opposition support.

 

[Blue3]

She can't do that without opposition support.

She can with a vote of no confidence

 

[Jim D]

It's the stock markets that we need yo be worried about along with 100% mortgages and the removal of tax relief for buy to let, manufacturing is such a small part of our output these days we heavily depend on stocks,shares and the property market which drives these from a UK perspective it's all a pack of cards once any one of these fails the rest will follow.

My predictions for 2017 are as follows:

Supreme Court upholds Brexit ruling
Britain triggers Articale 50 as set out
French national front win the presidential election but it's close
The far right Dutch party win
Mrs Merkel remains chancellor but with a much weakened coalition
U.K. Government concedes it's forced to put outcome of Brexit negotiations to a vote in parliament
Mrs May uses this as a platform and calls a snap general election
SNP win an even bigger majority totally wiping out the three main parties in Scotland
UKIP win no parliamentary seats and sees it share of the vote plummet
Labour surprise many doing better than predicted but unable to win an outright
The LibDems make major strides forward but are still way behind the SNP for third largest party
The Conservative Party win the election but without a working majority
Labour,SNP and LibDems form a coalition
The deal will involve Scotland gaining much more self government and the U.K. holding a second referendum on the terms of Brexit

In your dreams. Oh, it was.........

 

[Simontheseagull]

I actually agree with you. On a lot of the Brexit threads I have made the point that the Euro is unsustainable. Even one of the architects of the Euro project has admitted this recently. The only reason that the currency unions of the US/UK work is that there is political and fiscal union. The US is a federation of the states, but the federation has fiscal and monetary control (albeit that the states raise their own state taxes too). The same applies within the UK. Central government/BoE are responsible for fiscal/monetary policy so it all works fine.

Within the EURO area, there is monetary policy, but nothing on the fiscal side. Yes, commission may set fiscal rules (3% budget deficit/surplus targets), but when a country fails there is no fiscal transfer between states. If, for example, Wales were to collapse economically, the whole of the UK would be impacted financially, as any expenditure from the government to support it would be at the national level.

The EURO structure is killing countries like Portugal, Greece, Italy and others to a lesser extent (Spain, France). The high levels of unemployment there are directly linked to the EURO. They were able to borrow before the financial crisis at very low rates as they were in the EURO, but their economies aren't like Germany. Many people warned it was a disaster waiting to happen, and it is happening. It's only the sheer political will of the institutions keeping the whole festering project alive at whatever cost (in terms of misery) to the populations of some countries. It will collapse (or at least several countries will leave).

What you have said is so true. It is also worth mentioning that the current problems with Deutsche Bank may bring about a disaster early next year, depending on the fine being levied on it by the USA.

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6412/could_deutsche_bank_crisis_cause_the_eu_to_collapse

 

[Soulman]

I'm sure someone more clued up than me can answer this for me.

Even if we were to withdraw from the EU, the Euro going belly up isn't at all good news for us is it?

Probably not, but seeing as we have commited a massive error by withdrawing from the EU, and the country is broke, and many want us to stay in the good old unelected leaders led EU, if the EU is going belly up then best we get out now.

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

Yeah get rid of it , i can then buy my 1/4 pound of american hard gums and 5 gallons of petrol again

I'll bet you my last shilling that won't happen ....

Just be thankful we didn't go the full monty and switch to driving on the right and converting speed and distance into KPH and KMs

I recall the saying when I was at Uni doing Business Studies in the late eighties - "Up yours! Jacques Delors"

 

[Crispy Ambulance]

Hope so.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

the pound sterling, the one bit of identity we preserved being in the EU, LOOKING TO GET SO MUCH MORE BACK WHEN WE LEAVE
regards
DR

 

[Bob!]

It's the stock markets that we need yo be worried about along with 100% mortgages and the removal of tax relief for buy to let, manufacturing is such a small part of our output these days we heavily depend on stocks,shares and the property market which drives these from a UK perspective it's all a pack of cards once any one of these fails the rest will follow.

My predictions for 2017 are as follows:

Supreme Court upholds Brexit ruling
Britain triggers Articale 50 as set out
French national front win the presidential election but it's close
The far right Dutch party win
Mrs Merkel remains chancellor but with a much weakened coalition
U.K. Government concedes it's forced to put outcome of Brexit negotiations to a vote in parliament
Mrs May uses this as a platform and calls a snap general election
SNP win an even bigger majority totally wiping out the three main parties in Scotland
UKIP win no parliamentary seats and sees it share of the vote plummet
Labour surprise many doing better than predicted but unable to win an outright
The LibDems make major strides forward but are still way behind the SNP for third largest party
The Conservative Party win the election but without a working majority
Labour,SNP and LibDems form a coalition
The deal will involve Scotland gaining much more self government and the U.K. holding a second referendum on the terms of Brexit

That looks like a wish list rather than a prediction

 

[pearl]

the pound sterling, the one bit of identity we preserved being in the EU, LOOKING TO GET SO MUCH MORE BACK WHEN WE LEAVE
regards
DR

thank fvcking Christ .... re: GBP that is

 

[Dr. No]

Even if we were to withdraw from the EU, the Euro going belly up isn't at all good news for us is it?

No.

 

[WonderingSoton]

The ECB and EU authorities will attempt to make it look calm and controlled, but under the surface the whole project is ****ed in it's current form and fundamental change is inevitable.
Maybe it'll fall apart, maybe it'll go for all out total and complete integration. The current compromises to get integration via the back door are completely borked.

 

[Brighton Mod]

It's the stock markets that we need yo be worried about along with 100% mortgages and the removal of tax relief for buy to let, manufacturing is such a small part of our output these days we heavily depend on stocks,shares and the property market which drives these from a UK perspective it's all a pack of cards once any one of these fails the rest will follow.

My predictions for 2017 are as follows:

Supreme Court upholds Brexit ruling
Britain triggers Articale 50 as set out
French national front win the presidential election but it's close
The far right Dutch party win
Mrs Merkel remains chancellor but with a much weakened coalition
U.K. Government concedes it's forced to put outcome of Brexit negotiations to a vote in parliament
Mrs May uses this as a platform and calls a snap general election
SNP win an even bigger majority totally wiping out the three main parties in Scotland
UKIP win no parliamentary seats and sees it share of the vote plummet
Labour surprise many doing better than predicted but unable to win an outright
The LibDems make major strides forward but are still way behind the SNP for third largest party
The Conservative Party win the election but without a working majority
Labour,SNP and LibDems form a coalition
The deal will involve Scotland gaining much more self government and the U.K. holding a second referendum on the terms of Brexit

Would agree with most but SNP have reached their zenith, they are becoming less popular as their achievements in government are poor, which is why independence is regularly wheeled out, also there were 40% voted for leave in brexit, some 36% of the SNP vote. Sturgeon will not and cannot go for another referendum, it will be political suicide and she knows it.

 

[larus]

I'm sure someone more clued up than me can answer this for me.

Even if we were to withdraw from the EU, the Euro going belly up isn't at all good news for us is it?

No it's seriously bad news. This would make Lehmans look like a sneeze compared to getting the flu. We don't want the EURO to go belly up, but the politicians won't do the sensible thing and restructure or ask countries to leave. Now, that could either be Germany leaving as being too powerful or the likes of Greece, Italy leaving and returning to their own currencies, where they devalue and regain 'competitiveness'.

The problem is that the EU has (IMO) become about the elite and not the people. The EU (single market as was) is a great concept and even allowing a supranational body to create common regulations is OK (not laws though). However, this has gone far beyond that and the single currency, discussions regarding a European army etc., are all stesp towards a single state.