Is the Euro dead in the water?

[larus]

Sounds like you will be delighted with the rising prices and declining living standards that are coming in 2017, a weak sterling is effectively a decline in the nations share price and that's what we've seen.

If you are affluent enough to ride it out and not one of the 16m with less than £100 in the bank good on you

Tell me, which part of "Sterling is trading about the mid-point of where it's been versus the Euro for the last 8 years" are you struggling to comprehend? It's not that difficult.

Sterling is weaker against the $ because the Fed is now perceived to be on a tightening trajectory. If you wish to vent your anger, vent it at Say Mark Carney for reducing interest rates when the opposite was required. A political action from a "supposedly" non political organisation.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Let's deal with facts about the Euro/Stl exch rate. It's currently within the 'normal' band of the last 8 odd years. It rose about 1.30 for a short period in 2014/15, but apart from than has been mainly in a band of 1.10 - 1.30.

So, please will the bed-wetters stop going on about "it's only going one way; crashing; heading for parity; etc.". That's emotional claptrap to back your own agenda as you're probably Remainers.

FFS, it nearly hit parity in 2008 then bounced.

View attachment 80427

But if the Euro is doomed and the pound continues to track it then surely the pound is doomed. How is the pound (and Euro) doing against the Trump. I mean Dollar?

Anyway, (general comment on this thread) nobody knows how Brexit will affect the pound, because WE HAVEN'T EFFING BREXITTED YET. FFS

 

[dazzer6666]

Really? Please let me know of ANY bank where the regulators have separated the Depositor side of banking from the Investment side? Just one. Any one will do.

They don't have to yet, the legislative requirement for the completion of ring-fencing in the UK is 1 January 2019

 

[larus]

But if the Euro is doomed and the pound continues to track it then surely the pound is doomed. How is the pound (and Euro) doing against the Trump. I mean Dollar?

Anyway, (general comment on this thread) nobody knows how Brexit will affect the pound, because WE HAVEN'T EFFING BREXITTED YET. FFS

BUT THE EURO HASN'T COLLAPSED YET FFS.

See, we can all do capitals.

Yes, we haven't had Brexit, but as the Remainers seem to like to forget, we were told that it would impact the economy STRAIGHT AWAY. In fact, the economy in doing OK (however, there is a huge imbalance in wealth distribution due to interest rate policies).

 

[Mattywerewolf]

I'd worry more that the FTSE 100 is apparently MASSIVELY over valued at the moment...

Is that so.....Why don't you short it straight away

 

[Mattywerewolf]

But if the Euro is doomed and the pound continues to track it then surely the pound is doomed. How is the pound (and Euro) doing against the Trump. I mean Dollar?

Anyway, (general comment on this thread) nobody knows how Brexit will affect the pound, because WE HAVEN'T EFFING BREXITTED YET. FFS

The market always prices in expectation so it may not have fully moved but the reason it moved when the Brexit referendum was held was exactly for this reason (despite it not having happened)

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

BUT THE EURO HASN'T COLLAPSED YET FFS.

See, we can all do capitals.

Yes, we haven't had Brexit, but as the Remainers seem to like to forget, we were told that it would impact the economy STRAIGHT AWAY. In fact, the economy in doing OK (however, there is a huge imbalance in wealth distribution due to interest rate policies).

Yeah, yeah. I was annoyed with the 'betwetters' descriptor someone included in their post. You are extrapolating my comment, anyway. I never said anything about straight away. As for the economy it is far too early to say it is doing fine, and you cannot possibly say what will happen after Brexit. And the fact that the pound and Euro are matching one another cannot possibly be good if, as the OP suggests, the Euro is doomed. But.... feel free to carry on seeing the the positive . . . as it happens I suspect everything will be fine in the end . . . but that's no justification for the present embarrassing mess, with no plan etc. My worst fear is that Germans will react against the centre, form/back a German equivalent of UKIP, and tell the rest of Europe that the new bankrolling will require a much greater deal of doing what Germany wants, or else. Frankly if I were a German, this would probably appeal to me.

On a related, I noticed a comment from JCFG elsewhere about controlling immigration going forward. As noted a million times, we have always controlled non EU immigration, yet we exceeded Cameron's target, last year by around 140,000 (his goal was 10K and we had 150K net from outside the EU, roughly). To 'control' immigration means actually . . . controlling it, not just emoting about it. It beats me how the Tories, the party of tight controls on immigration, can have been so absolutely rubbish in this department for the last 8 years. Labour never cared about immigration yet they did no worse a job. And despite the hot air, I haven't seen any sensible proposals about implementing border controls by the Ukip jokers. If this were an issue that bothered me personally I'd be inclined to nip down to Dover with some mates and 'police' the border myself, because it is clear that none of the politicians have the remotest clue.

Anyway, couldn't resist biting

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

BUT THE EURO HASN'T COLLAPSED YET FFS.

See, we can all do capitals.

Yes, we haven't had Brexit, but as the Remainers seem to like to forget, we were told that it would impact the economy STRAIGHT AWAY. In fact, the economy in doing OK (however, there is a huge imbalance in wealth distribution due to interest rate policies).

A quick look at the FT and you'll see terms like plunged, crash, fall etc. I'm minded to believe them as opposed to a random on NSC

 

[Soulman]

But if the Euro is doomed and the pound continues to track it then surely the pound is doomed. How is the pound (and Euro) doing against the Trump. I mean Dollar?

Anyway, (general comment on this thread) nobody knows how Brexit will affect the pound, because WE HAVEN'T EFFING BREXITTED YET. FFS

If we HAVE'NT EFFING BREXITED YET, then why are some blaming Brexit for everything.

 

[larus]

A quick look at the FT and you'll see terms like plunged, crash, fall etc. I'm minded to believe them as opposed to a random on NSC

Collapsed - as in it is no more. Disintegrated. Countries leaving through choice/expulsion/market forces. That's a big difference to collapsing and exchange rate changes, but do carry on with your myopic view of the EU/EURO.

At least I don't make predictions regarding :
1. Labour winning general elections.
2. Remain winning the referendum.
3. Trump standing no chance.

Not been a good 18 months for you .

I'm genuinely interested as to the reaction of the German public to the immigration policies of Merkel as this atrocity, following on from the Cologne issues last year, will certainly be feeding support for AfD.

 

[larus]

If we HAVE'NT EFFING BREXITED YET, then why are some blaming Brexit for everything.

Bloody hell Soulman. Haven't you learnt anything yet about Brexit? Whatever could/does go wrong is down to the Brexit vote. And if it doesn't materialise, then it's because Brexit hasn't happened. So, the drop in the value of the pound post the vote was because of the vote, yet the 'steady as it goes' economic figures are because Brexit hasn't happened. However, if the figures had been worse, then it would have been because of Brexit.

Perleease get with the program.

 

[Icy Gull]

Is that so.....Why don't you short it straight away

No idea what that means is probably the short answer

 

[Icy Gull]

Bloody hell Soulman. Haven't you learnt anything yet about Brexit? Whatever could/does go wrong is down to the Brexit vote. And if it doesn't materialise, then it's because Brexit hasn't happened. So, the drop in the value of the pound post the vote was because of the vote, yet the 'steady as it goes' economic figures are because Brexit hasn't happened. However, if the figures had been worse, then it would have been because of Brexit.

Perleease get with the program.

I'm just grateful we've moved on from blaming Maggie Thatcher for all the countries current ills

 

[WATFORD zero]

Anyway, (general comment on this thread) nobody knows how Brexit will affect the pound, because WE HAVEN'T EFFING BREXITTED YET. FFS

I think you mean NOBODY STILL HAS THE SLIGHTEST EFFING IDEA WHAT BREXIT IS YET

Other than hard red, soft white and runny blue

 

[Mattywerewolf]

No idea what that means is probably the short answer

If the FTSE is massively overvalued then put a bet on that it will go down. Short is the opposite of buying the index. Perhaps in the form of a spread bet on it going down.

 

[Soulman]

Bloody hell Soulman. Haven't you learnt anything yet about Brexit? Whatever could/does go wrong is down to the Brexit vote. And if it doesn't materialise, then it's because Brexit hasn't happened. So, the drop in the value of the pound post the vote was because of the vote, yet the 'steady as it goes' economic figures are because Brexit hasn't happened. However, if the figures had been worse, then it would have been because of Brexit.

Perleease get with the program.

My apologies. I must wait until we have actually left before I take the blaming of Brexit whines seriously.

 

[WATFORD zero]

My apologies. I must wait until we have actually left before I take the blaming of Brexit whines seriously.

Well maybe leave it until you find out what it is you voted for

 

[jakarta]

I'm just grateful we've moved on from blaming Maggie Thatcher for all the countries current ills

You clearly don't listen to Jeremy Hardy etc. on the News Quiz...

 

[BigGully]

Well maybe leave it until you find out what it is you voted for

I am guessing you know with similiar certainty how the EU will look next year or when we finally exit, it will not look anything like you see it today.

On the one hand you Remainers cite uncertainty as an obvious Brexit flaw, whilst mumbling incoherently about how the EU isnt perfect and needs reform but rarely ever offering what kind of reform is needed, probably because it looks very much like Brexit without the exit.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I am guessing you know with similiar certainty how the EU will look next year or when we finally exit, it will not look anything like you see it today.

On the one hand you Remainers cite uncertainty as an obvious Brexit flaw, whilst mumbling incoherently about how the EU isnt perfect and needs reform but rarely ever offering what kind of reform is needed, probably because it looks very much like Brexit without the exit.

I couldn't give a toss either way, there's always opportunities no matter what happens.

But if you truly believe that Brexit gives a better definition of the short and medium term future can I respectfully suggest you don't take up gambling in any of it's forms.