nwgull
Well-known member
I work in risk assessment and so calculate probability daily. I can confirm that buying 2 tickets, each with a probability of winning of 1/112 000 000, gives an overall probability of 2/112 000 000 - or 1/56 000 000.
Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
Seagull58
In the Algarve
You are getting confused between doubling your chance of winning by buying a second ticket and increasing your chances of winning to 50% by buying 56,000,000 tickets. They are two very different things!
Gullys Cats
Sausage by the sea!!!
Good luck, stay strong, stay out of the bookies!
EDS
Banned
- Nov 11, 2012
- 2,040
There are some right dunces in this thread.
You cannot beat the roulette wheel, anyone who say's this is either stupid or deluded(maybe both). Buying two tickets at something does not halve the odds. Say I enter a raffle and there are 120 tickets, if I buy one the odds are 120/1. If I buy two I have 2 chances at 120/1 otherwise if the odds kept halving everytime then I could buy 7 and get down to odds of approximately 2/1, its not hard to work out.
You cannot beat the roulette wheel, anyone who say's this is either stupid or deluded(maybe both). Buying two tickets at something does not halve the odds. Say I enter a raffle and there are 120 tickets, if I buy one the odds are 120/1. If I buy two I have 2 chances at 120/1 otherwise if the odds kept halving everytime then I could buy 7 and get down to odds of approximately 2/1, its not hard to work out.
Justice
Dangerous Idiot
No shit Sherlock
EDS
Banned
- Nov 11, 2012
- 2,040
Yes, yes it does.
Buying 2 tickets instead of 1 does double your chances of winning because 2 is double 1. If you then bought another, your chances would be 3/120. Your 7 ticket scenario would give you a 7/120 chance.
You're the latest member of Club Drongo-Maths.
If you believe that no wonder you believed the bollocks your friend spouted about beating the roulette wheel.
Lord Bracknell
On fire
... and if you buy all 120 tickets, you are certain to win.
But the prize is likely to be worth less than the price of 120 tickets.
Justice
Dangerous Idiot
When did I say that exactly?It was you who said earlier you can beat the roulette wheel
If you buy 7 your chances would be 7/120, or approximately 1 in 17.
If you buy Chemakh your chances of avoiding relegation are about 120/1
Wrong. If you enter a raffle and there are 120 tickets and buy one then your odds are 1 in 120. If you buy two then your odds are 2 in 120 or 1 in 60 (so the odds have halved). The odds will not halve on buying a third ticket as you have not doubled the number of tickets. So if you buy three the odds are 3 in 120 or 1 in 40. If you bought 60 tickets then the odds would be 60 in 120 or 1 in 2 (this makes sense as you have bought have the tickets so would expect a 50:50 chance of winning). If you bought 120 tickets then the odds would be 120 in 120 or certain.
nwgull
Well-known member
Your first sentence is spot on. However, buying 2 tickles in a raffle DOES halve your odds of winning. If you buy 2 tickets in your 120 ticket raffle then you have a 2/120 chance of winning; that's the same as 1/60.
Vegas Seagull
New member
- Jul 10, 2009
- 7,782
Unless the organiser added more tickets which is not impossible...
EDS
Banned
- Nov 11, 2012
- 2,040
Probably best I shut up as I may be wrong, but if I buy to lottery tickets I do not halve the odds off winning simply because I have bought two
nwgull
Well-known member
You are wrong. It is simple maths.
Yes you do.
One ticket = 1 in 120 million chance of winning
Two tickets = 2 in 120 million chances of winning, which is one in 60 million
To halve your chances of winning again though, you would need to buy two more tickets, so you have a 4 in 120 million chances of winning, or 1 in 30 million.
There's one small caveat in the "two tickets double your chances of winning" thing, and that is that the tickets must have different numbers on them. If, say, you bought 2 lucky dips and they both drew the same numbers, then your chances of winning are still 1 in 120m.
(In this scenario you would, however, win a greater share of the winning prize if others also had winning tickets.)
(In this scenario you would, however, win a greater share of the winning prize if others also had winning tickets.)
EDS
Banned
- Nov 11, 2012
- 2,040
Actually I am right but probably never explained myself properly at first. Put simpler if I buy two lottery tickets(or raffle tickets) I do not halve the odds, I simply have more chances at the original odds
True, it's the same as walking up to a girl on a Saturday night, and asking her for a ******** ******. If you ask the same girl 120 times she will always say no, so it's important that you ask 120 different ones. However, the one who says yes may decide you love her after 15 minutes, have a very large teddy bear collection, and hang outside your house all night long singing to you.