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[Albion] If Stoke lose to Man City
- Thread starter Live by the sea
- Start date
As things stand today (and even once the Stoke v ManC game is played) there's 9 teams behind us. For us to fall into relegation, 7 or those teams need to outscore us (and some of them by significant margins). For the sake of argument, let's assume that Stoke lose against Man City.
The worst-case scenario from here is that:
1. We lose all our games and finish on 34 points.
2. The current two worst placed teams (West Brom and Stoke) also lose all their remaining games (feeding maximum points to others in the relegation battle).
Using that as a baseline, I then ran "worst case" results for other matches (to maximise the chances of us falling into relegation), with the exception that I assumed that top 6 sides always win vs non-top 6 sides. What this came out with is that we drop into the relegation zone with 3 games still to play.
But the odds of that being the way it plays out must be astronomical. It required a lot of teams behind us to be winning games more frequently than they have at any other point in the season, and it requires teams ahead of us to have meltdowns (Everton, Watford, Burnley, Leicester).
So I then went and tweaked a few results here and there, giving us a win vs Hudds and a draw vs Palace for 38 points. Tweaked some of the results for the aforementioned teams ahead of us (in games vs those behind) and it didn't take very many changes at all to have us safe.
I think 37 should be enough based on this, especially as I think it's unrealistic to expect Stoke to not take points away from others in the relegation battle; they've still got West Ham, Palace, and Swansea to come. Hopefully even the dire West Brom could manage to do us a favour or two - they've still got Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Palace to come. If they could nick a draw against the latter two that helps us a lot. Southampton's run in from here is nearly as ugly as ours is as well, so struggling to see where they make up the points on us unless we do go pointless.
The worst-case scenario from here is that:
1. We lose all our games and finish on 34 points.
2. The current two worst placed teams (West Brom and Stoke) also lose all their remaining games (feeding maximum points to others in the relegation battle).
Using that as a baseline, I then ran "worst case" results for other matches (to maximise the chances of us falling into relegation), with the exception that I assumed that top 6 sides always win vs non-top 6 sides. What this came out with is that we drop into the relegation zone with 3 games still to play.
But the odds of that being the way it plays out must be astronomical. It required a lot of teams behind us to be winning games more frequently than they have at any other point in the season, and it requires teams ahead of us to have meltdowns (Everton, Watford, Burnley, Leicester).
So I then went and tweaked a few results here and there, giving us a win vs Hudds and a draw vs Palace for 38 points. Tweaked some of the results for the aforementioned teams ahead of us (in games vs those behind) and it didn't take very many changes at all to have us safe.
I think 37 should be enough based on this, especially as I think it's unrealistic to expect Stoke to not take points away from others in the relegation battle; they've still got West Ham, Palace, and Swansea to come. Hopefully even the dire West Brom could manage to do us a favour or two - they've still got Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Palace to come. If they could nick a draw against the latter two that helps us a lot. Southampton's run in from here is nearly as ugly as ours is as well, so struggling to see where they make up the points on us unless we do go pointless.
The GIF dude
New member
Saints - 5 away games left and 2 of their 3 home games vs. Chelsea and City.
Joe Gatting's Dad
New member
Two home wins Leicester and Huddersfield and safety guaranteed
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
BensGrandad
New member
who are they other than playing us.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
Clean your glasses, and look at post 46.
TSB
Captain Hindsight
Interesting. With the wheels falling off at West Ham, I now have them to go down with Saints and WBA. Stoke to scrape survival by a couple of points (on 34!). Albion safe in 12th although we only win one more game and end up on 40 points.
BensGrandad
New member
I did but couldnt determine which team was which only us by the badge and Newcastle by Rafa and also WBA.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
Elton John, Huddersfield shirt, Hammers, Potteries, Halo, Swan (ok it's a duck).
This is what I keep reminding myself when I have a little wobble. One or two teams may have a really good run as you get that every season, they cannot all go on a super run though so as long as we keep several teams between us and the bottom as each round of games gets eaten up we will be ok. This weekend for example the gap was 7, we lost but it is still 7.
BensGrandad
New member
Too complex for me, what was wrong with just the names or their home shirts even that would have been better. Who is the halo?
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
FatSuperman
Well-known member
- Feb 25, 2016
- 2,922
It's a time-honoured post though BG, surely you've seen it previously? (Usually it's focus is on the other end of the table!)
BensGrandad
New member
Bwian
Kiss my (_!_)
- Jul 14, 2003
- 15,898
I think I preferred "How many points do we need to win the title". Way less complicated. Doesn't mean I want to be back in The Championship though.
Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
We will win one of those games, there you go, you heard it here first!
While there is the possibility that other struggling clubs will really up their game as it comes to the crunch, we seem to have forgotten the possibility that we could do so too. Chris has been playing a long, steady game but he’s almost certainly got a “balls to the wall” Plan B if required.
Stoke’s a shit hole. Hope they lose.