Hughton: Burnley will show us our "our level"

[Mo Gosfield]

Hughton is disappointed some of the draws haven't been converted into wins, so lets examine.
1) Deserved wins. Forest, Ipswich, Hull, Rotherham, Bristol City, MK Dons.
2) Deserved draws. Huddersfield, Reading, Sheff Wed, Preston.
3) Drawn games..should have won...Wolves, Bolton, Cardiff ( - 6 pts )
4) Won games....could/should have drawn/lost.....Fulham ( draw ) Blackburn ( draw ) Leeds ( draw )....( + 6 pts )
So IMHO we are exactly where we should be, points wise. All down to personal opinion, I know, but I don't think the manager has much to rue re lost opportunities.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I don't think spending is necessarily aquainted with success in the Championship. A strong spine to the squad is probably more important. Three clubs: Boro, Derby and Wednesday seemed to have pushed the boat out a bit (spent above their income).

Boro, Derby QPR and Burnley are amongst our next fixtures.

I seem to agree with CH's comments (he does not give much away). I think we will know how we will compete by then end of the year.

Our competitor's fans think we will fall away like Forest did after going 19 games undefeated a few seasons back. I don't know how we will stand up to our next fixtures? It should be interesting. My prediction is if we can go undefeated so can the opposition.

Why should we fall away like Forest ?

What are the similarities between them at the time and us ?

 

[Machiavelli]

After 16 games, Burnley and Leicester were clear of the others. http://www.statto.com/football/teams/derby-county/2013-2014/table/2013-11-26

This season it is closer. I think the challengers will put together undefeated runs. So we have not only to keep up the pace, but I think we will have to improve to keep ahead.

I thought Burnley would falter, but not Bournemouth. Burnley drew lots of games as well, 15 all season. 5 in the first 16 (we have drawn 7).

If we carry on with our points-per-game ratio, we'll end the season with c100 points and be promoted. If you're referring to our performances, then that introduces subjectivity into the mix. What we've done is ground out results this season, been defensively secure, created a lot of opportunities, and had a bit of luck (I can point to three penalties that could have been awarded against us). If we had better finishers, or our finishers were on better form, then we'd be doing more than grinding out results.

 

[chaileyjem]

Our competitor's fans think we will fall away like Forest did after going 19 games undefeated a few seasons back. .

Forest went 20 games undefeated early in 2009/10. They finished 3rd that season losing to Blackpool in the play off semi finals...
Last season Forest also started well but their undefeated run at the top only lasted 9 games. They then won only 3 times in 21 games before Pearce was sacked.They were already 11th at the equivalent point last season not 2nd.

 

[scamander]

Hi all,

Just an aside to the link concerning Burnley transfers, we bought Gray for what's thought to be £6 million, rising to £9. We're also waiting for Ings' transfer fee to be decided (at tribunal). Take these into account and you might find that we're even on the transfer front.

Financially we are quite a stable club, something which infuriates some of our fans who think we should be splashing out the cash and signing Ronaldo each week.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Hi all,

Just an aside to the link concerning Burnley transfers, we bought Gray for what's thought to be £6 million, rising to £9. We're also waiting for Ings' transfer fee to be decided (at tribunal). Take these into account and you might find that we're even on the transfer front.

Financially we are quite a stable club, something which infuriates some of our fans who think we should be splashing out the cash and signing Ronaldo each week.

Fans who think you should be splashing out left, right and centre...thank goodness we don't have any of those...

 

[scamander]

Fans who think you should be splashing out left, right and centre...thank goodness we don't have any of those...

All clubs have them sadly - a lot thought because we were in the Prem it meant that we could sign anyone we wanted. They failed to realise that you can easily bankrupt a club with a couple of players on very big contracts.

 

[mikeyjh]

Why should we fall away like Forest ?

What are the similarities between them at the time and us ?

I think people will look at your squad, externally, and question whether they can sustain the position - Typically we don't see a great deal of your rivals' games, so that's the kind of barometer people will use - Rightly or wrongly...

 

[Moshe Gariani]

I think people will look at your squad, externally, and question whether they can sustain the position - Typically we don't see a great deal of your rivals' games, so that's the kind of barometer people will use - Rightly or wrongly...

Most "people" have very little clue. Transfer fees paid out and high profile playing time (Premier League) are the most common metrics used to assess the quality of players. These can be a useful guide but when players have been homegrown, developed at a club over a few years or brought in from abroad (one of which applies to most of our squad) then things are less clear.

I don't know how good our players are. My guess is that we are exactly where we deserve to be and that the addition of a £7m goalscorer (who then scores goals!) will give us a fair chance of staying in the top two.

 

[Ernest]

I am just HOPING Bloom SPLASHES out some of the CASH we got from the SAILS of Barnes, Bridcutt, Murray, Buckley, Ulloa and go for it instead of CHEAP foreign options. I'd put in a BID for Jordan ROADS, Charlie Austin, Daryl Murphy and AIM to get at LEAST 2 of them

 

[Mo Gosfield]

I am just HOPING Bloom SPLASHES out some of the CASH we got from the SAILS of Barnes, Bridcutt, Murray, Buckley, Ulloa and go for it instead of CHEAP foreign options. I'd put in a BID for Jordan ROADS, Charlie Austin, Daryl Murphy and AIM to get at LEAST 2 of them

Ok...let me be the first to rise to the bait.
Rhodes ( cost £8m....cost to buy £10-11m ) Austin ( QPR want £15m ) Murphy ( after last season, his stock has risen, so £7-8m )....so just the £20m min to buy two of the three plus significant wages.
The sale of the above mentioned BHA players ( even if we had got all the money in....which we haven't ) would barely cover one of these. Strikers who get 20 goals plus in the Championship start from about £8m upwards.

 

[Perry Milkins]

Ok...let me be the first to rise to the bait.
Rhodes ( cost £8m....cost to buy £10-11m ) Austin ( QPR want £15m ) Murphy ( after last season, his stock has risen, so £7-8m )....so just the £20m min to buy two of the three plus significant wages.
The sale of the above mentioned BHA players ( even if we had got all the money in....which we haven't ) would barely cover one of these. Strikers who get 20 goals plus in the Championship start from about £8m upwards.

ermm..I think Ernest is being silly. When he wants to be taken seriously he does not capitalise at random.

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

Hughton is disappointed some of the draws haven't been converted into wins, so lets examine.
1) Deserved wins. Forest, Ipswich, Hull, Rotherham, Bristol City, MK Dons.
2) Deserved draws. Huddersfield, Reading, Sheff Wed, Preston.
3) Drawn games..should have won...Wolves, Bolton, Cardiff ( - 6 pts )
4) Won games....could/should have drawn/lost.....Fulham ( draw ) Blackburn ( draw ) Leeds ( draw )....( + 6 pts )
So IMHO we are exactly where we should be, points wise. All down to personal opinion, I know, but I don't think the manager has much to rue re lost opportunities.

Good analysis, however, we battered Fulham and am not sure Blackburn threatened particularly.

Wolves we offered little going forward even against 10 men.

 

[perseus]

What the gaffers say

If we carry on with our points-per-game ratio, we'll end the season with c100 points and be promoted. If you're referring to our performances, then that introduces subjectivity into the mix. What we've done is ground out results this season, been defensively secure, created a lot of opportunities, and had a bit of luck (I can point to three penalties that could have been awarded against us). If we had better finishers, or our finishers were on better form, then we'd be doing more than grinding out results.

Mostly, I think it is Lualua and Bobby Zamora that have won us 12 pts with pieces of individual skill. I was actually referring to the views of opposition fans.

Subjectively, unless the last 3 games I do not think we have been playing to the best standard of two seasons ago (there were some really naff games back then as well).

Third of the way through the season. Projected 100 pts minus 24 pts through individual skill lacking (or change of luck) = minimum of 76 pts: good enough for the play-offs.

I think other clubs near the top will go on unbeaten runs with wins so a higher than normal points total may be needed for the automatic places. Opposition fans seem to rate Derby, Middlesbrough, Hull and Burnley better than us.

Stats show our passing success and possession has gone down and the only thing that has improved slightly is shots per game inside the penalty area at home (where we have had easier games). Realistically, instead of conceding goals at inopportune times by mistakes we are now scoring them instead. Long may it continue.

What the gaffers say:

"We are going very well and I am enjoying what we are doing, how the team is coming together and we have got lots of good points on the board."

"The team spirit, the cohesiveness, and the understanding of the tactics are growing all the time and the players are showing so many different qualities.

"We are showing a lot more resilience now and have had some really good performances, and if you are not at your best and do not lose then it is a good sign."

"We're not going to get carried away because it's a long winter, especially in the Championship."

"Everybody wants to beat us and that's because we're doing well, we can't relax,"

“It’s not necessarily easy to find that extra bit we need to win on a consistent basis. Sometimes only a small percentage of the team whereas in other divisions you might need a complete overhaul to get into the top six.

"When you actually analyse the team we’ve got a lot of pace, so it lends itself to leaving space. In football you have to create space to score goals and win games of football.


Put your name to the gaffer.

 

[perseus]

Forest went 20 games undefeated early in 2009/10. They finished 3rd that season losing to Blackpool in the play off semi finals...
Last season Forest also started well but their undefeated run at the top only lasted 9 games. They then won only 3 times in 21 games before Pearce was sacked.They were already 11th at the equivalent point last season not 2nd.

OK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009–10_Nottingham_Forest_F.C._season

We may have to improve our goal scoring to get an automatic place. There are precedents for clubs falling away (main point).

However, I don't think this will be the case. I think the other top clubs will go on undefeated runs as well, maybe only ten but a higher proportion of wins?

I too think that Burnley could be a barometer to how we stand. Looking for a barometer in our other games without having any clear signs.