How will you feel if you vote for the losing side in the referendum ?

[larus]

I've been finding it very inconsistent that the same group who dismiss any economic argument against leaving EU as mere wrong opinion to be ignored, are so strong in their views that Scotland wouldn't vote the leave the UK because of....

....


.... economic arguments.


You've just got to really.

So, items 1 & 2 are economic are they? Wow. Suggest you learn a little bit more about what economics is, as logic obviously isn't your strong point .

And, based on the economic forecasts of the SNP, their budget would have big holes in it. If they want to go, I'm not really bothered, but I think (note, my opinion and not making anything to be factual) they won't due to the economics. This is FACTUAL as it is based on what the OIL PRICE was and what the OIL PRICE has dropped to. It's not based on any 'shocks' from the split.

Contrast that to the projections based on UNKNOWNS from the IMF, CBI, BoE, Treasury, Bob Geldoff (I'm sure he must have done some too). We don't know what the landscape will be like after we leave, and other forecasters say we will be better off.

Maybe the difference between PROJECTIONS (from the establishment with vested interests) and FACTS/fFIGURES which can be quantified is lost on you.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

So, items 1 & 2 are economic are they? Wow. Suggest you learn a little bit more about what economics is, as logic obviously isn't your strong point .

And, based on the economic forecasts of the SNP, their budget would have big holes in it. If they want to go, I'm not really bothered, but I think (note, my opinion and not making anything to be factual) they won't due to the economics. This is FACTUAL as it is based on what the OIL PRICE was and what the OIL PRICE has dropped to. It's not based on any 'shocks' from the split.

Contrast that to the projections based on UNKNOWNS from the IMF, CBI, BoE, Treasury, Bob Geldoff (I'm sure he must have done some too). We don't know what the landscape will be like after we leave, and other forecasters say we will be better off.

Maybe the difference between PROJECTIONS (from the establishment with vested interests) and FACTS/fFIGURES which can be quantified is lost on you.

No, 1 and 2 are not economic.

Sorry for being too lazy to either highlight part of the quote, or delete the bit which didn't apply.

My laziness on tapatalk


Still stand by the reply, ecomonics ignored but only when it suits

 

[larus]

You have posted your opinion. Hare are some facts.

1. Scotland does not have an automatic right to EU membership as it will be new independent country.
2. It's request for entry to the EU will be clocked by Spain and Belgium due to their own internal independence issues (Basque and Flemish).
3. Scotland does have other industries of course, but their projections were based on a high oil price. The consensus view is that this won't come back for the foreseeable future, as the marginal cost of fracking in the US are much lower, so once the oil price rises, the frackers will gain market share.















Point 2 above Basque and Flemish Regionals do not have national Governments. Scotland does.


Point 1 - Scotland independently meets the criteria for EU acceptance, in terms of it's Economy and on issues such as Human Rights. Why would Europe reject it. It is the 43rd largest economy in the world and larger than 50% of other nations already within the EU.

Your final 2 points , I sort of agree. It would not Guarantee a referendum nor would any Referendum Guarantee a vote to leave the Union but it could conceivably generate a big enough swing in last year's vote to achieve it. And the point I was really making in that regard was how it would affect the Political voting system in the remainder of the UK, based on the current voting Electoral system.

Point 2 I was responding to the original post and Oil prices fluctuate based on OPEC decisions so the oil prices will rise again but The oil side of things I was merely pointing out that the Scottish Economy is not dependent on it

From articles regarding the situation of Scotland in the case of independence.

[FONT=&quot]European Commission spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde-Hansen refused to make any new comment on the Scottish referendum at the Commission’s daily press briefing on Monday, saying “it is for the Scottish people and for the British citizens to decide on the future of Scotland”.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]She said the EU executive’s position on an independent Scotland had not changed.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]She refused to spell out what that was, but in response to a request from Reuters, the Commission sent a letter from European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to a member of Britain’s upper chamber of parliament in 2012. In the letter, Barroso sets out the Commission’s position on whether an independent Scotland would remain part of the 28-nation EU.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]“If part of the territory of a member state would cease to be part of that state because it were to become a new independent state, the (EU) treaties would no longer apply to that territory,” Barroso said, meaning an independent Scotland would no longer be part of the EU.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]He pointed out however that any European state which met the EU’s membership criteria may apply to join the EU.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Negotiations could take years[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Asked whether an independent Scotland would have to apply to join NATO, a NATO official told Reuters that no discussions had been held on the issue and no decisions have been taken.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]“However, it appears widely agreed that, as a matter of law, a Scotland which has declared its independence and thereby established its separate statehood would be viewed as a new state. A new state would not be a party to the North Atlantic Treaty, and thus not a member of NATO,” the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]“If it were to choose to apply for NATO membership, its application would be subject to the normal procedure,” he said.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, leader of the pro-independence campaign, has dismissed suggestions that an independent Scotland would struggle to join NATO if it removed Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent from Scotland as planned by 2021, or be refused membership of the EU.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Negotiations to join the EU and NATO can take ye​ars.


I don't think it's clear cut, but it would be viewed a as a new state so no automatic right of accession. Also, they would have to agree to adopt the Euro as a condition of joining.[/FONT]

 

[larus]

No, 1 and 2 are not economic.

Sorry for being too lazy to either highlight part of the quote, or delete the bit which didn't apply.

My laziness on tapatalk


Still stand by the reply, ecomonics ignored but only when it suits

So, you want to pick out 1/3 of my post and use that as the only reason.

And the oil impact is basic maths really, not a projection.

For example (figures aren't actual but you'll get the message - hopefully).

2014 - 1,000,000 barrels at $150 = $150,0000,000.

2017 - 300,000 barrels at $50 = $15,000,0000.


Compare this to.
"Based on our (biased) computer tools (i.e. software written by people with assumptions and bugs), the economy could shrink by (random number designed to scare people).

 

[5ways]

Another great exmple of the freedom of movement in the EU that we all benefit from

I'm in France on the day of the vote. Bought a beret as a contingency plan in case after the vote the French follow through on their 'swift exit' plan and start rounding us up for deportation.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I'm in France on the day of the vote. Bought a beret as a contingency plan in case after the vote the French follow through on their 'swift exit' plan and start rounding us up for deportation.

Keep a low profile. There will be some british sympathisers who will house you for a few days until you can plan an escape. Alternatively, learn french and stay there, you will have greater prospects

 

[Two Professors]

I'm in France on the day of the vote. Bought a beret as a contingency plan in case after the vote the French follow through on their 'swift exit' plan and start rounding us up for deportation.

Bet you any money I will still get in two weeks after the vote,with the usual snarling faces at immigration

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I'm in France on the day of the vote. Bought a beret as a contingency plan in case after the vote the French follow through on their 'swift exit' plan and start rounding us up for deportation.

Perhaps you should defect/seek asylum so you can continue your ardent support for the EU project

 

[Hampster Gull]

Perhaps you should defect/seek asylum so you can continue your ardent support for the EU project

You're right, we will lose real talent from this country, not just migrants.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

So, you want to pick out 1/3 of my post and use that as the only reason.

And the oil impact is basic maths really, not a projection.

For example (figures aren't actual but you'll get the message - hopefully).

2014 - 1,000,000 barrels at $150 = $150,0000,000.

2017 - 300,000 barrels at $50 = $15,000,0000.


Compare this to.
"Based on our (biased) computer tools (i.e. software written by people with assumptions and bugs), the economy could shrink by (random number designed to scare people).

Well OK, but my observation is that BREXIT fans ( on the whole ) are very keen to dismiss economic arguments for resisting BREXIT.

But when it comes to the Scots and their independence, economics is King.

As I said, it's my observation. You may have a different experience.

 

[5ways]

Perhaps you should defect/seek asylum so you can continue your ardent support for the EU project

When BoJo becomes PM and appoints Farage as fisheries minister I think I'll have a pretty solid case, no?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You're right, we will lose real talent from this country, not just migrants.

Unlikely, best guess he's already a payed up member of the EU apparatus or an economist

*Tut* Many migrants are talented.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

When BoJo becomes PM and appoints Farage as fisheries minister I think I'll have a pretty solid case, no?

As you mentioned previously Brits aren't quitters. I'm sure you would remain to do the best for your country.

 

[El Presidente]

Unlikely, best guess he's already a payed up member of the EU apparatus or an economist

Out of curiousity, and I'll declare an interest as I've been lecturing in economics and finance at UG and PG level since 1989, why the constant sneering and belittling of my profession?

 

[Hampster Gull]

Unlikely, best guess he's already a payed up member of the EU apparatus or an economist

*Tut* Many migrants are talented.

Good spot. You have your super sharp goggles on tonight

 

[Hampster Gull]

Out of curiousity, and I'll declare an interest as I've been lecturing in economics and finance at UG and PG level since 1989, why the constant sneering and belittling of my profession?

I'm impressed El P. I btw think the subject is great

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Out of curiousity, and I'll declare an interest as I've been lecturing in economics and finance at UG and PG level since 1989, why the constant sneering and belittling of my profession?

I prefer to describe it as sneering/belittling their powers of prediction based on their past record. How would you assess the credibility of their Brexit forecasts?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Good spot. You have your super sharp goggles on tonight

Nice try, wouldn't want to live down to your prejudices.

 

[El Presidente]

I prefer to describe it as sneering/belittling their powers of prediction based on their past record. How would you assess the credibility of their Brexit forecasts?

The nature of prediction, based on hundreds of variables, can never be accurate, especially as time horizons extend.

They, like weather forecasters, are criticised as they are easy targets.

If you think they are rubbish what would you replace them with? The nature of economics involves looking at the behaviour of millions of individual people, firms, governments and externalities interact. We can't predict twenty football matches taking place simultaneously, but it is possible to get more right than wrong. It's the same with economics.

BTW I predicted the 2008 crash as was involved with lecturing subprime debt issuers at the time!

Brexit forecast from IMF today is a fair assessment, looks at a range of outcomes, and has a best/worst case scenario.

Patrick Minford (my old HoD) is a nice old duffer, but was an architect and defender of the Poll Tax, I'll say no more than that.


Sent from Konnie Huq's lingerie drawer.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Nice try, wouldn't want to live down to your prejudices.

Very good, i see what you did there