How much is the Referendum Campaign influencing you?

[JC Footy Genius]

Or to put it another way, as an experienced mountaineer, do you join an international team to make an assault on some of the greatest peaks around the world or do you try to cobble together a group of egotistical but inexperienced UK ramblers to stroll up the downs!

More like an experienced mountaineer waiting in the base camp hut as 27 of his fellow climbers squabble over which mountain to climb, which route to take, what equipment to use while ignoring the distant rumbling of an approaching Eurozone avalanche.

 

[pb21]

You are talking of pleasures and freedoms. That is a different principle to that of law, well usually anyway.

The fact is that in the end, one has to ask the question, 'am I happy for people with no common heritage or love of Great Britain, to make and impose laws on our people?'

If the answer is yes then vote in as far as I'm concerned. The EU is horribly bureaucratic in nature, many times the British have said we'll get reform from the inside but there is a huge amount of inertia in the system and in my view the French and Germans have it sewn up. This may be as we weren't involved from the outset. I would rather have a system of direct representation from parliament, where the politicians are answerable to the electorate. Our involvement with the EU waters that down.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

Well I prefer my law to be as objective as it possibly can be and involving as little love as possible for any particular side or aspect.

However I do generally get your point, it seems it is more the principle than the specifics.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Well I prefer my law to be as objective as it possibly can be and involving as little love as possible for any particular side or aspect.

However I do generally get your point, it seems it is more the principle than the specifics.

In principle yes I agree. However I'd prefer someone here to be making the decisions that affect me here. And yes, law should be totally objective.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[drew]

More like an experienced mountaineer waiting in the base camp hut as 27 of his fellow climbers squabble over which mountain to climb, which route to take, what equipment to use while ignoring the distant rumbling of an approaching Eurozone avalanche.

Surely as the experienced mountaineer you will be in there driving the decisions rather than just meekly running away and hiding!

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

Im frankly surprised that there are 15 NSC members who have been swayed by the argument either way. I have seen very little from either camp that would compel me to change my mind although there was an excellent debate on LBC yesterday between (bizarrely) Alex Salmond and IDS which set out the stalls for each side well, or as well as it can be set out.

I believe that we will vote to leave and by a significant margin but probably make the right choice for all the wrong reasons. Much of the opinion i hear from those around me is idiotic xenophobic drivel but, ultimately, the old adage about patriotism being the first recourse of the scoundrel is true and it is that rather than economics and plausibility of the scaremongering that will carry the day.

My own position is quite straightforward. The EU will fail with or without the UK. I would rather be in control of outr own lifeboat when the ship sinks than locked in the lower deck with all the others. The one thing that is patently obvious is the inevitability of this. My biggest concern now is that, post referendum, it will be very clear that there are no politicians of any hue in the UK who have the first idea how to govern. Cameron and Osbourne have lost what little credibility they had by treating the electorate with contempt and generating so much errant nonsense during the campaign. Boris is an utter buffoon and Corbyn is a cowardly maoist.

 

[sir albion]

I'm with you. I'm unhappy with aspects of both camps but the economic disaster i believe will happen if we leave, far out-way the problems of remaining.

It's choosing the lesser of two evils.

You presume an economic disaster and let's be honest it's very unlikely!!!
It's really a case of going from employed to self employed and having the drive to succeed on your own....what's wrong with being ambitious,hungry and proud to strive for a bigger and better life.

That's my view on why I'll be voting out rather than the "we can't cope on our own" bla bla bla as I actually have faith in the British people to be independent and proud and to make things even better.

 

[ofco8]

To answer the original question I will make a couple of comments.

1. I think Merkel sticking her nose in with her threats is a massive mistake. Germans, twice in the last century threatened us and we proved we were not scared and faced up to them. Results?

2. We keep being told we will be worse off financially if we leave. Well, prior to 1975 joining up to Europe, young people generally got married in their early/mid twenties and the vast majority were able to buy their own houses at that age, with comparatively low deposits and repayments. That is why baby boomers seem so well off to youngsters today.
Are remains, many of whom moan about not being able to save for a deposit until they are nearly forty, saying we will be better off staying in.

 

[5ways]

You can keep believing their forecasts on this unprecedented situation but once again I ask what is their track record?

In the 2001 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, an economist from the International Monetary Fund, Prakash Loungani, published a survey of the accuracy of economic forecasts throughout the 1990s. He reached two conclusions. The first was that forecasts are all much the same. There was little to choose between those produced by the IMF and the World Bank, and those from private sector forecasters. The second conclusion was that the predictive record of economists was terrible. Loungani wrote: “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”

Now Loungani, with a colleague, Hites Ahir, has returned to the topic in the wake of the economic crisis. The record of failure remains impressive. There were 77 countries under consideration, and 49 of them were in recession in 2009. Economists – as reflected in the averages published in a report called Consensus Forecasts – had not called a single one of these recessions by April 2008.

This is extraordinary. Bear in mind that this is not the famous complaint from the Queen that nobody saw the financial crisis coming. The crisis was firmly established when these forecasts were made....More astonishing still, when Loungani extends the deadline for forecasting a recession to September 2008, the consensus remained that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009. Making up for lost time and satisfying the premise of an old joke, by September of 2009, the year in which the recessions actually occurred, the consensus predicted 54 out of 49 of them – that is, five more than there were. And, as an encore, there were 15 recessions in 2012. None were foreseen in the spring of 2011 and only two were predicted by September 2011.

Predictions from multinational organisations such as the IMF and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have remained very similar to the private sector consensus – similarly bad, that is.

The obvious conclusion is that forecasts should not be taken seriously. There is not a lot of point asking an economist to tell you what will happen to the economy next year – nobody knows. It is still a source of constant wonder to me that the demand for forecasts – in economics and elsewhere – remains undiminished.

https://next.ft.com/content/14e323ee-e602-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0#axzz33EAHFQqf

Well +1 for the FT but you need to do better than "economists are often wrong" to convince people to ignore the assembled warnings of 90% of all economists. It is not good enough to simply say they were wrong before, ergo they must be wrong now. A start would be finding more economists to support Brexit than can fit in a ....*looks up topical relevant example of the benefits of the common market...* Sunderland made Nissan Juke

 

[5ways]

To answer the original question I will make a couple of comments.

1. I think Merkel sticking her nose in with her threats is a massive mistake. Germans, twice in the last century threatened us and we proved we were not scared and faced up to them. Results?

2. We keep being told we will be worse off financially if we leave. Well, prior to 1975 joining up to Europe, young people generally got married in their early/mid twenties and the vast majority were able to buy their own houses at that age, with comparatively low deposits and repayments. That is why baby boomers seem so well off to youngsters today.
Are remains, many of whom moan about not being able to save for a deposit until they are nearly forty, saying we will be better off staying in.

It's no longer 1975. The world has changed and become tougher and more competitive. We have to be as competitive as possible in this new world. I made a post about this about 500 posts ago which I honestly can't face digging out.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Surely as the experienced mountaineer you will be in there driving the decisions rather than just meekly running away and hiding!

Unfortunately they just won't listen. They seem more interested in moving in with each other than exploring new opportunities. They even formed their own special little gang which isn't going very well, terrible arguments . The only sensible option was to leave them to it!

Flogged this one to death?

 

[drew]

Unfortunately they just won't listen. They seem more interested in moving in with each other than exploring new opportunities. They even formed their own special little gang which isn't going very well, terrible arguments . The only sensible option was to leave them to it!

Flogged this one to death?

Afraid I can only agree with the last line.

I'm off to dust off my pitons.

 

[Soulman]

A lot is guesswork but we have signs that things could get very difficult.

Take the announcement today from the CEO of JP Morgan.

Blair made JP Morgan shed loads of money in the Iraq war, and now he gets a couple of million a year as a sort of sleeping director (cough) who is Blair championing, remain..........hardly surprising the CEO want their snouts in the EU gravy train.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Well +1 for the FT but you need to do better than "economists are often wrong" to convince people to ignore the assembled warnings of 90% of all economists. It is not good enough to simply say they were wrong before, ergo they must be wrong now. A start would be finding more economists to support Brexit than can fit in a ....*looks up topical relevant example of the benefits of the common market...* Sunderland made Nissan Juke

I thought I did, even used your favourite source for added kudos. Economists and all your alphabet spaghetti of authoritative organisations are not only nearly always wrong on economic forecasting they can't even accurately predict 1 year ahead when all the evidence is staring them in the face.

Out of interest have you ever sent money to a Nigerian Prince offering remarkable investment opportunities?

 

[ofco8]

It's no longer 1975. The world has changed and become tougher and more competitive. We have to be as competitive as possible in this new world. I made a post about this about 500 posts ago which I honestly can't face digging out.

Fine if that is how you view things, perhaps being in Europe has made it tougher!!!. But if we vote to remain in I don't want to hear any moaning from remains when the immigration flood gates open, they can't afford mortgages,we have to bail out eurozone countries etc. I will just ask "Did you vote remain?" if the answer is yes will say I don't want to hear.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I will just ask "Did you vote remain?" if the answer is yes will say I don't want to hear.

talk to the hand

 

[Dick Head]

I've changed my mind since this poll was posted in May. Have you?

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showt...-Referendum-Campaign-influencing-you-NEW-POLL

 

[GT49er]

Probably because they don't think we'll leave.

Be good to prove them wrong then!

 

[GT49er]

I do understand that and that is why I implicitly asked the poster if they were happy with that loss of sovereignty specifically.

It would have been fascinating if the votes on entering the common market would have taken place with that proviso in mind.

It wouldn't have been allowed at the time - the join campaign had, as the remain campaign does now, the full weight of the political and financial interests in Westminster and the City behind it, making sure that we, the electorate, didn't accidentally vote the 'wrong' way.

 

[Hampster Gull]

You have missed the point entirely .In 1975, the 'joiners' targeted hate figures; people that a large majority of the electorate would hate - Wedgwood Benn and Enoch Powell. Now it's Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson.. No positives; just a hate campaign.
Fair enough - it worked back then. The sheep voted... ... ... ... ...

Why do you keep bleating on about sheep? Beause people have the nerve to disagree with you? The Leave campaign had long enough to sort its act out and failed

 

[Hampster Gull]

You presume an economic disaster and let's be honest it's very unlikely!!!
It's really a case of going from employed to self employed and having the drive to succeed on your own....what's wrong with being ambitious,hungry and proud to strive for a bigger and better life.

That's my view on why I'll be voting out rather than the "we can't cope on our own" bla bla bla as I actually have faith in the British people to be independent and proud and to make things even better.

I have faith in the british people to succeed as equals within the EU. Better than a game of roulette