How much is the Referendum Campaign influencing you?

[5ways]

Depends what you mean by fine. I am certain everything won't be fine if we stay in.

Completely agree there is no precedent which makes all the definitive forecasts pro or anti Brexit pure guesswork.

You can keep telling yourself that but the studies by every single reputable organisation under the sun that say that we will be poorer, significantly poorer, post-Brexit didn't get their figures out of thin air. Please heed the warnings of the IMF, OECD and Treasury - recession + job losses + years of uncertainty.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

The more high-profile immigration stories over the next three weeks, the more ground the BREXITeers will gain

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lense]

Still not convinced that this is the kind of thing that should be put to a public referendum.. very hard to really understand the ins and outs, and for every statement made by one side, there are shouts of "rubbish" "exaggeration" from the other side.. all a bit tricky for the Great British Public to make an informed decision... unless of course, a decision either way really wont make a difference in which case its all pointless..
For what it's worth, I am in.. my simplistic view is that the decision is drawn along two fronts only : Economics (in) and Immigration (Out).

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You can keep telling yourself that but the studies by every single reputable organisation under the sun that say that we will be poorer, significantly poorer, post-Brexit didn't get their figures out of thin air. Please heed the warnings of the IMF, OECD and Treasury - recession + job losses + years of uncertainty.

You can keep believing their forecasts on this unprecedented situation but once again I ask what is their track record?

In the 2001 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, an economist from the International Monetary Fund, Prakash Loungani, published a survey of the accuracy of economic forecasts throughout the 1990s. He reached two conclusions. The first was that forecasts are all much the same. There was little to choose between those produced by the IMF and the World Bank, and those from private sector forecasters. The second conclusion was that the predictive record of economists was terrible. Loungani wrote: “The record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished.”

Now Loungani, with a colleague, Hites Ahir, has returned to the topic in the wake of the economic crisis. The record of failure remains impressive. There were 77 countries under consideration, and 49 of them were in recession in 2009. Economists – as reflected in the averages published in a report called Consensus Forecasts – had not called a single one of these recessions by April 2008.

This is extraordinary. Bear in mind that this is not the famous complaint from the Queen that nobody saw the financial crisis coming. The crisis was firmly established when these forecasts were made....More astonishing still, when Loungani extends the deadline for forecasting a recession to September 2008, the consensus remained that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009. Making up for lost time and satisfying the premise of an old joke, by September of 2009, the year in which the recessions actually occurred, the consensus predicted 54 out of 49 of them – that is, five more than there were. And, as an encore, there were 15 recessions in 2012. None were foreseen in the spring of 2011 and only two were predicted by September 2011.

Predictions from multinational organisations such as the IMF and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have remained very similar to the private sector consensus – similarly bad, that is.

The obvious conclusion is that forecasts should not be taken seriously. There is not a lot of point asking an economist to tell you what will happen to the economy next year – nobody knows. It is still a source of constant wonder to me that the demand for forecasts – in economics and elsewhere – remains undiminished.

https://next.ft.com/content/14e323ee-e602-11e3-aeef-00144feabdc0#axzz33EAHFQqf

 

[One Love]

Depends what you mean by fine. I am certain everything won't be fine if we stay in.

Completely agree there is no precedent which makes all the definitive forecasts pro or anti Brexit pure guesswork.

A lot is guesswork but we have signs that things could get very difficult.

Take the announcement today from the CEO of JP Morgan.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

For what it's worth, I am in.. my simplistic view is that the decision is drawn along two fronts only : Economics (in) and Immigration (Out).

Why do you leave out the ability to determine your own law without outside interference? Or is that unimportant to you?

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[One Love]

Still not convinced that this is the kind of thing that should be put to a public referendum.. very hard to really understand the ins and outs, and for every statement made by one side, there are shouts of "rubbish" "exaggeration" from the other side.. all a bit tricky for the Great British Public to make an informed decision... unless of course, a decision either way really wont make a difference in which case its all pointless..
For what it's worth, I am in.. my simplistic view is that the decision is drawn along two fronts only : Economics (in) and Immigration (Out).

I'm with you. I'm unhappy with aspects of both camps but the economic disaster i believe will happen if we leave, far out-way the problems of remaining.

It's choosing the lesser of two evils.

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lense]

Why do you leave out the ability to determine your own law without outside interference? Or is that unimportant to you?

Sent from the boot of Lingard

It's less important for me personally, but haven't heard a great deal on that outside of the two big topics I mentioned..

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

It's less important for me personally, but haven't heard a great deal on that outside of the two big topics I mentioned..

It is an issue that is interwoven into all aspects of British politics. If you are happy that unelected people are making decisions which directly impact our law then fair enough. But I consider it an erosion of democracy. I agree the debate from both sides has been poorly presented.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[wellquickwoody]

So you'd follow Cameron and Osborne over a cliff quite happily then? This is about issues, not personalities. The remain camp is, of course, demonising its opponents to try and persuade people (like you) to vote remain, the same as the 'join' campaign did in 1975.

So marketing hasn't changed since 1975 you say? Are your other observations just as accurate?

 

[gregbrighton]

IF WE Brexit, puppies and kittens will die!

 

[JC Footy Genius]

A lot is guesswork but we have signs that things could get very difficult.

Take the announcement today from the CEO of JP Morgan.

JP Morgan are one of the main funders of the Remain campaign (£500,000) so suggestions they may cut their workforce may be just a convenient ratcheting up of the campaign.

Fears of an economic Brexit meltdown didn't stop Deutsche Boerse buying London Stock Exchange Group which is something that is happening rather than a convenient scare story prediction. Why would they go ahead with this deal if terrible economic uncertainty was just over the horizon?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Why do you leave out the ability to determine your own law without outside interference? Or is that unimportant to you?

Sent from the boot of Lingard

You need to understand that some of us do not have an issue with a body higher than the UK passing law. It's kind of the sovereignty you crave...but at a higher, European, level.

 

[drew]

More like a mountaineer deciding being free to choose which summit to climb anywhere in the world is a more rewarding target/challenge than being led up and down the same old European peaks every year.

Or to put it another way, as an experienced mountaineer, do you join an international team to make an assault on some of the greatest peaks around the world or do you try to cobble together a group of egotistical but inexperienced UK ramblers to stroll up the downs!

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Fears of an economic Brexit meltdown didn't stop Deutsche Boerse buying London Stock Exchange Group which is something that is happening rather than a convenient scare story prediction. Why would they go ahead with this deal if terrible economic uncertainty was just over the horizon?

For the company overall, the outcome won't have an effect. But, the balance between what LSE is left with, and what they move to Frankfurt, post BREXIT will be interesting.

 

[pb21]

Just out of interest what is it that people who want to leave the EU, so we don’t have to abide by its laws being imposed, feel they can’t legally do or enjoy because of EU Law?

Is it just the principle, or are people missing out and life being not as good as it otherwise would be?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

More like a mountaineer deciding being free to choose which summit to climb anywhere in the world is a more rewarding target/challenge than being led up and down the same old European peaks every year.

And ending up dead because they were stupidly optimistic and not properly equipped?

 

[One Love]

JP Morgan are one of the main funders of the Remain campaign (£500,000) so suggestions they may cut their workforce may be just a convenient ratcheting up of the campaign.

Fears of an economic Brexit meltdown didn't stop Deutsche Boerse buying London Stock Exchange Group which is something that is happening rather than a convenient scare story prediction. Why would they go ahead with this deal if terrible economic uncertainty was just over the horizon?

Probably because they don't think we'll leave.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

You need to understand that some of us do not have an issue with a body higher than the UK passing law. It's kind of the sovereignty you crave...but at a higher, European, level.

I do understand that and that is why I implicitly asked the poster if they were happy with that loss of sovereignty specifically.

It would have been fascinating if the votes on entering the common market would have taken place with that proviso in mind.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Just out of interest what is it that people who want to leave the EU, so we don’t have to abide by its laws being imposed, feel they can’t legally do or enjoy because of EU Law?

Is it just the principle, or are people missing out and life being not as good as it otherwise would be?

You are talking of pleasures and freedoms. That is a different principle to that of law, well usually anyway.

The fact is that in the end, one has to ask the question, 'am I happy for people with no common heritage or love of Great Britain, to make and impose laws on our people?'

If the answer is yes then vote in as far as I'm concerned. The EU is horribly bureaucratic in nature, many times the British have said we'll get reform from the inside but there is a huge amount of inertia in the system and in my view the French and Germans have it sewn up. This may be as we weren't involved from the outset. I would rather have a system of direct representation from parliament, where the politicians are answerable to the electorate. Our involvement with the EU waters that down.

Sent from the boot of Lingard