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[Politics] How many seats will the Tories get ?
- Thread starter Uncle Spielberg
- Start date
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #22
We all know Starmer is in but the tories will get far north of 100 seats maybe near 200 and bookies got this badly wrong
MattBackHome
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 11,873
Just shy of 100. I'll go for 94.
Absolute bloodbath.
Absolute bloodbath.
Who really cares? Labour will win the election with a comfortable working majority. Neither the Lib. Dems. or Reform will be in a position to offer the Tories a chance of forming a coalition government. Just as well, IMHO.
Here's hoping they don't fcuk it up ............... hope being the operative word.
Here's hoping they don't fcuk it up ............... hope being the operative word.
Stato
Well-known member
- Dec 21, 2011
- 7,365
John Curtice is talking somewhere between 50 & 150. If forced to guess, I would think that the 'shy tories' previously underestimated by some polls are likely to be balanced by increased determined tactical voting and that he won't be much out. I think they'll just break three figures. In 97 Blair won a 179 seat majority on 43.2% against Major's 30.7%. Starmer is polling a little below Blair's percentage, but Sunak is well below Major's. The squeeze from the right from Reform has been spoken about a lot, but the Lib Dem squeeze from the left in the southern strongholds will likely be a much bigger factor in terms of lost tory seats. There is not a huge appetite for this Labour Party, but the anti-tory vote is stronger than I have ever known it. I know multiple lifelong Daily Mail reading tories who have said that they just cannot bring themselves to vote for them.
Survation are predicting that this Parliament could also change it's make up in other radical ways. The percentage of women MPs could go from 34% to as high as 42%. Not parity, but as near as it's ever been before. Statista are also saying that a three figure Labour majority would be likely to make this the most ethnically diverse UK Parliament ever. Given the number of MPs that didn't stand this time and the comments made about the working environment by some of the younger female MPs that left, let's hope that whatever the political make up on Friday, the place can be more representative of the country and a less toxic environment for all who work there.
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,887
And most Tories leaving the count five minutes before the announcement to get on Indeed..
Agree, but I don't think you'll get the 7-1 payout. I think it comes under 150 seats.
US Seagull
Well-known member
Can somebody ELI5 how to actually read this?
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 12,109
I definitely agree that there are many tory voters, who aren't accounted for in the polls.
However I don't think there is much motivation for them to vote, this time around.
There are a lot of factors for this.
However I don't think there is much motivation for them to vote, this time around.
There are a lot of factors for this.
- Starmer doesn't scare them enough
- The result is already conceded
- Reform is an option
- Sunak doesn't inspire confidence
- The Tories don't deserve it
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 12,109
It's a betting exchange market.
You can either BACK or LAY against the results listed
.
BACK (Blue column) is the traditional bet - i.e. you are betting on the result happening. The numbers represent the multiplier for your bet.
LAY (Pink Column) is a bet that the result does not happen.
In a LAY bet you are taking the role of the bookmaker and you have to commit to cover the winnings of the result happening.
i.e
for the 0-49 @ 15 Market , a £10 LAY bet, requires the punter to pay £140 liability bet to cover the £10 bet.
If they are correct they take the £10 as their winnings.
The £value under each odds represents the maximum amount of money available in the market.
i.e the amount a punter can currently place a BACK bet on 0-49 = £15 - or LAY = £11
The difference between the odds represents the bookies margin.
For example to cover both results
£10 Back bet on 0 -49 @13 - Costs £10 to win £120
£10 Lay bet on 0-49 @15 - Costs £140 to win £10
The bookie takes £140 to cover any bets they would have to pay out at £120
Last edited:
oldboyroy
Well-known member
Still believe the tories will be out in force today and expect them to be close even forcing a hung parliament. Would love them to get annihilated with only double digit seats but wouldn't be surprised if they get near or over 200!
- Apr 19, 2018
- 2,130
Over 100 but fewer then 120.
aftershavedave
Well-known member
105 but could be less
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,013
yeah, the 150 cut-off in the markets make it bit tricky. playing around with Electoral Calculus only have to be a few % more than polling to get out of the sub 100 to the ~150 level. but tricky to decide which side, i think the polls are off but not so off.
I think the Tories will get about 135/140
I also think Reform will get more than predicted. I can see them picking up around 20/30 seats. Polling companies have accounted for shy Tories but I don't think they've got a handle on shy Reformers.
I think the Labour majority will be under 100, not the 'supermajority' that people are talking about
I also think Reform will get more than predicted. I can see them picking up around 20/30 seats. Polling companies have accounted for shy Tories but I don't think they've got a handle on shy Reformers.
I think the Labour majority will be under 100, not the 'supermajority' that people are talking about