Oh well Unc I bought a buy-to-let this week, so that's me f**ked I guess!
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House prices to crash
- Thread starter Uncle C
- Start date
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,015
fortuitously i have kept the paper, Evening Standard from lat Friday. says rises were "annual pace of 8.1% during the past thress months". not sure if they mean year on year for Q4 or annualised from rises over those three months. cites Your Move as the source, though i wonder if they use asking price, not a very accruate guide imo.
untill such reports offer numbers excluding re-mortgages, i dont really think they have much bearing on the health of the housing market. the re-mortgaging sub-industry has tanked, as i suppose you are aware, because who wants to re-mortgage when they are on 2.5-3% and pay a grand for the privilege?
Guerrero
New member
When there is little to feel good about the Tory press will try to find something.There is nothing to suggest that anything is going to get much better in the next year or so.EXCEPT FOR BHAFC.New Stadium.Quality manager.Premiership football beckoning.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,015
sort of the point. though one might say the current headline numbers are a fraction of those at the peak. so just how are the "mortgages advanced" numbers distorted? in the past 2-3 years we might have a 50%* drop in total mortgages advnaced but only say 20% drop in advances for new mortgages/moves. this would mean the measure is a poor correlation to house purchases and prices.
(* purely hypothetical/indicative)
Well you cant say you weren't warned.
True mate, so true ... My prediction is profit on capital value by 2014 if I wanted to sell and in the meantime 9.4% return on investment.
There are no interest payments but you're right there may be unforeseen costs but I do think I have most events covered. Like anything there's risk, but hey started businesses in a recession and some have said "You're mad" which will be the same ones that say you're JUST lucky when you cash your chips!
Just re-read that sounded far too cocky, do feel confident on the future but didn't need to portray it in that way ... sorry
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
£ 6 billion net lending in 2010 and expected to go into negative net lending in 2011 ( more being paid back on mortgages than being lent out ).
Beach Hut
Brighton Bhuna Boy
If you remortgage like we did last month as current one ended does the paid back and loaned money count as a positve and negative to the net lending figure ?
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
Its the same money going around the system unless you increased the borrowing. The new lending figures are likely to go into negative this year ie new lending will be less than payments made back on existing mortgages. When people have extra cash like those on tracker and variable rates in the last 2 years they are more likely to pay off credit cards and loans first and then their mortgage but as I said before even more likely to spunk it away.
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
Peoeple sitting on tracker and variable rates get a reality check when they try and come to re mortgage as
1. The property price falls may mean they go into a higher loan to value than they would have previously done meaning higher rates
2. Any and I mean any adverse credit in the last 3 years including a late payment on a credit card may mean they will be declined
3. Self employed people will find it very difficult to re mortgage in the future
4. Tighter criteria will mean they may well not qualify for a mortgage in the future even on a like for like basis
5. Anyone that did self cert in the past and want self cert now, forget it
6. The FSA want to ban interest only and if anyone who has interest only now may find it hard for a new lender to take them on , on the same basis
This will mean as it stands millions of people will become mortgage prisoners with no option but to stay with their present lender on the svr which is ok now at 3-4% but what happens when it goes to 7-8% ?
1. The property price falls may mean they go into a higher loan to value than they would have previously done meaning higher rates
2. Any and I mean any adverse credit in the last 3 years including a late payment on a credit card may mean they will be declined
3. Self employed people will find it very difficult to re mortgage in the future
4. Tighter criteria will mean they may well not qualify for a mortgage in the future even on a like for like basis
5. Anyone that did self cert in the past and want self cert now, forget it
6. The FSA want to ban interest only and if anyone who has interest only now may find it hard for a new lender to take them on , on the same basis
This will mean as it stands millions of people will become mortgage prisoners with no option but to stay with their present lender on the svr which is ok now at 3-4% but what happens when it goes to 7-8% ?
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Beach Hut
Brighton Bhuna Boy
Must admit ours went up £100 a month when we remortgaged but hey ho, only 8 years left.
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
Should have spoken to an independant mortgage broker mate.
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #778
Hometrack shows prices down again by 0.5% in January and now showing a real 2.2% drop year on year. The markets going to struggle with any Spring bounce this year.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE70Q00620110127
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE70Q00620110127
Arthritic Toe
Well-known member
Interesting looking at this Guardian article from 2006. It typifies all that was wrong during those credit boom years and the mad deluded blindness that was affecting the whole country.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2006/dec/16/business.houseprices
The sub headline reads "House prices in UK will never crash, say Mr and Mrs Wilson of Ashford, Kent. And they should know..."
For the record, these figureheads of the buy-to-let boom have been in trouble for the last couple of years. However, they were lent so much money by the banks, that they became too big to fail. As a result, they were given easy repayment terms, so they don't go bankrupt. This in itself typifies how the financcial crisis is playing out. Those who saw the problems coming and were prudent are the ones who are are being punished to bail out the idiots who caused the whole thing.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2006/dec/16/business.houseprices
The sub headline reads "House prices in UK will never crash, say Mr and Mrs Wilson of Ashford, Kent. And they should know..."
For the record, these figureheads of the buy-to-let boom have been in trouble for the last couple of years. However, they were lent so much money by the banks, that they became too big to fail. As a result, they were given easy repayment terms, so they don't go bankrupt. This in itself typifies how the financcial crisis is playing out. Those who saw the problems coming and were prudent are the ones who are are being punished to bail out the idiots who caused the whole thing.
Hotchilidog
Well-known member
- Jan 24, 2009
- 9,120
Just about to sell my flat and get somewhere a bit bigger. Not looking forward to it at all.