larus
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House prices to crash
- Thread starter Uncle C
- Start date
And, under no circumstances are you allowed to do anything productive.
- Aug 7, 2003
- 8,087
House prices down a further 3%, says Rightmove
13 December 2010 | By Daniel Thomas
Property website predicts prices could plummet by 5% in 2011
House prices could fall by as much as 5% next year if property repossessions pick up, property website Rightmove warned today.
The gloomy prediction came as Rightmove’s monthly house price index showed that asking prices for homes in England and Wales have fallen 3% over the past month to stand just 0.4% higher than a year ago.
December’s fall – the second largest ever recorded for the month – follows a 3.2% decline in November and points to a weak 2011, according to Rightmove director Miles Shipside.
“In 2011 we will see larger falls in weaker markets due to over-supply and forced sales,” he said.
“The net result is likely to see average national asking prices fall slightly. At best they could be close to flat and at worst down by 5% t if repossession numbers jump up from one in every 15 sales.”
Recent price falls and some nervousness about prices in 2011, combined with growing arrears, could result in lenders increasing the number of repossessions, according to Rightmove.
“If base rates increase then repossession numbers could form a much larger percentage of total sales, and at an extreme this could lead to even greater price falls than we are forecasting,” it said.
Areas such as the north-east and north-west of England could be the most vulnerable, given high unemployment, with property prices taking a larger than average hit, Shipside warned.
13 December 2010 | By Daniel Thomas
Property website predicts prices could plummet by 5% in 2011
House prices could fall by as much as 5% next year if property repossessions pick up, property website Rightmove warned today.
The gloomy prediction came as Rightmove’s monthly house price index showed that asking prices for homes in England and Wales have fallen 3% over the past month to stand just 0.4% higher than a year ago.
December’s fall – the second largest ever recorded for the month – follows a 3.2% decline in November and points to a weak 2011, according to Rightmove director Miles Shipside.
“In 2011 we will see larger falls in weaker markets due to over-supply and forced sales,” he said.
“The net result is likely to see average national asking prices fall slightly. At best they could be close to flat and at worst down by 5% t if repossession numbers jump up from one in every 15 sales.”
Recent price falls and some nervousness about prices in 2011, combined with growing arrears, could result in lenders increasing the number of repossessions, according to Rightmove.
“If base rates increase then repossession numbers could form a much larger percentage of total sales, and at an extreme this could lead to even greater price falls than we are forecasting,” it said.
Areas such as the north-east and north-west of England could be the most vulnerable, given high unemployment, with property prices taking a larger than average hit, Shipside warned.
sten_super
Brain Surgeon
It should be noted that this is asking prices, rather than actual sale prices. Prices, sale values and transactions all tend to fall in Q4 as people avoid moving around the festive period. Also, as discussed earlier in the thread, monthly indicators are notoriously unreliable. Having said that, there is clearly a downward trend in house prices at the moment.
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #704
Thought this deserved a little end of year review.
House prices fell by 3.4% during 2010 after sliding by 1.3% in December alone, Halifax has said.
So houses are becoming that bit more affordable.
Read more: Express.co.uk - Home of the Daily and Sunday Express | UK News :: House prices fall 3.4% in year
House prices fell by 3.4% during 2010 after sliding by 1.3% in December alone, Halifax has said.
So houses are becoming that bit more affordable.
Read more: Express.co.uk - Home of the Daily and Sunday Express | UK News :: House prices fall 3.4% in year
redneb
Active member
Come on Unc even you'll accept defeat on this soon, won't you?
House prices fell 3.4% at the back end of a world financial crisis, they'll fall MARGINALLY this year and rise back to pre-2007 prices by 2014. It's not a CRASH, it's a blip, a correction of an over hyped market.
Just to be clear I do not own any commercial or rental properties, I'm not an estate agent just an optimist. ;-)
House prices fell 3.4% at the back end of a world financial crisis, they'll fall MARGINALLY this year and rise back to pre-2007 prices by 2014. It's not a CRASH, it's a blip, a correction of an over hyped market.
Just to be clear I do not own any commercial or rental properties, I'm not an estate agent just an optimist. ;-)
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #707
The 3.4% applies only to 2010. If you want to reference the world financial crisis then quoted figures showed an average decline from Apr 07 to Dec 08 of about 13-15% (adjusted for inflation this was about 20% fall).
The upward blip during 2009 was due to 1. lack of supply 2. bank of mum and dad 3. low interest rates and 4. ramping by anyone with a vested interest to capture the gullible (estate agents etc).
1-2 are largely over and 3 will reverse eventually. 4 is the only thing that remains constant. You can add to this growing unemployment.
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- Aug 7, 2003
- 8,087
Barratt set to start 110 new sites by June
12 January 2011 | By Iain Withers
Housebuilder’s trading statememt points to boosting margins and controlling costs
Barratt expects to start work on 110 new sites during the next six months, bringing its total number of active sites to 400.
In a trading statement to the City this morning the housebuilder said it aims to “retain a firm grip on costs” to boost margins.
The firm reported that average selling prices increased by 6% to £176,000 during the last six months of 2010 while operating margins rose to 5% compared to 2.4% the previous year.
Barratt also announced a partnership with Hitachi Capital to provide finance to parents looking to help their children get on the property ladder.
Mark Clare, group chief executive, said: ”The group has delivered a significant improvement in both average selling prices and operating margin even though sales volumes have been affected by difficult trading conditions.
“We are on course to make further progress in the second half as we open new higher margin sites and continue to be value and quality focused.”
The trading statement added: “The group’s primary objective is to improve profitability through achieving full value for its products and retaining a firm grip on costs. This will remain our focus in the second half.”
Read more: Barratt set to start 110 new sites by June | Online News | Building
building.co.uk
12 January 2011 | By Iain Withers
Housebuilder’s trading statememt points to boosting margins and controlling costs
Barratt expects to start work on 110 new sites during the next six months, bringing its total number of active sites to 400.
In a trading statement to the City this morning the housebuilder said it aims to “retain a firm grip on costs” to boost margins.
The firm reported that average selling prices increased by 6% to £176,000 during the last six months of 2010 while operating margins rose to 5% compared to 2.4% the previous year.
Barratt also announced a partnership with Hitachi Capital to provide finance to parents looking to help their children get on the property ladder.
Mark Clare, group chief executive, said: ”The group has delivered a significant improvement in both average selling prices and operating margin even though sales volumes have been affected by difficult trading conditions.
“We are on course to make further progress in the second half as we open new higher margin sites and continue to be value and quality focused.”
The trading statement added: “The group’s primary objective is to improve profitability through achieving full value for its products and retaining a firm grip on costs. This will remain our focus in the second half.”
Read more: Barratt set to start 110 new sites by June | Online News | Building
building.co.uk
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #709
Their claim to have increased (their) average selling prices by 6% is a neat play on statistics. It does not mean the market has climbed 6%, just that they have either been building slightly more upmarket houses, or concentrating more on areas of the UK which command higher house prices.
The scheme to provide finance to parents looking to help their children get on the property ladder smacks of desparation. If houses were cheaper they wouldn't need to do this.
Here is a slightly different slant on the same press release
LONDON (Reuters) - Housebuilder Barratt Developments reported a 4.4 percent fall in first-half completions, partly offset by higher prices and margins, and said low mortgage availability remained its biggest problem.
"Last year's Autumn selling season was particularly bad. Therefore, it is important we get ourselves going as fast as we can with those sales in the next selling season," chief executive Mark Clare told reporters on Wednesday.
"Mortgage lending remains at unusually low levels and we view this restricted availability of mortgage finance as continuing to be the key constraint on market growth in the near term," the company said.
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Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #710
The prices of properties sold at auction slumped in December heralding falls for the wider market, according to a financial forecaster.
Read more: Stalled auctions herald house price falls in 2011 | This is Money
Read more: Stalled auctions herald house price falls in 2011 | This is Money
NMH
Banned
They had a false rise some time ago, now the rocking ship has to correct itself.
The USA will probably keep credit digging them deep into oblivion just to deny a housing crash, but the UK are between a rock and a hard place and can't move any way but down, until 'first time buyers' start happening.
The USA will probably keep credit digging them deep into oblivion just to deny a housing crash, but the UK are between a rock and a hard place and can't move any way but down, until 'first time buyers' start happening.
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #712
In case you hadn't noticed the American housing market has fallen about 30% recently and looks set to loose further. This is despite low interest rates, government mortgage support and Quatitative Easing. The only surprise so far is that the UK has not followed, but once the ball gets rolling there will be little to stop it.
severnside gull
Well-known member
well at least while you and your like are in business there is every chance that the ball WILL get rolling whether it needed to or not. You've been trying to talk the market into crisis for a long time now and I guess I should admire your persistence but somehow........................................
Uncle C
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- Thread starter
- #714
well at least while you and your like are in business there is every chance that the ball WILL get rolling whether it needed to or not. You've been trying to talk the market into crisis for a long time now and I guess I should admire your persistence but somehow........................................
I can see the Sun headlines now "Uncle C brings the housing market crashing to its knees following his constant drivel on NSC". This will be accompanied by a picture of me with my tits out.
That I don't agree with. The US is simply massive with a limitless supply of good building land and no welfare system. You lose your job in Detroit your best option is to hand in the keys and move sharpish. It simply is not the same here in the UK, particularly in the South-East, where there are more people than houses available.
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #716
The 'supply and demand' card has been overplayed and has been debated somewhere else in the depths of this thread. There is obviously plenty of demand, in the same way as we would all quite like a Ferrari.
But, with house prices being too high, they are currently not affordable and so will drop until they reach the long term multiple of earnings at which point the market will recover and first time buyers might stand a chance.
severnside gull
Well-known member
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,016
but that wasnt what Chesserolls was saying. he is pointing out that there are different market forces at work in the US housing market. it is not the same as the UK: indeed the UK market is different between regions and postcodes. The UK hasnt follwed the US because its not the same conditions.