But remember, giving a man £720,000,000 is 'kicking the f***' out of him in the wacky world of Uncle C
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House prices to crash
- Thread starter Uncle C
- Start date
But remember, giving a man £720,000,000 is 'kicking the f***' out of him in the wacky world of Uncle C
eastlondonseagull
Well-known member
If retail prices had soared at the same rate as house prices, a jar of coffee would now cost more than £20! Just goes to show how ridiculous everything has become.
Hatterlovesbrighton
something clever
Does anyone know what the effect has been on prices in Brighton and Hove?
I was about to comment on this. f*** all, certainly in Worthing and surrounding areas. For the last 3 years, I've not really seen the prices change, however there has been less for sale and what has been for sale has been shit. There have been chancers, putting up semi-decent property but well above market rate.
Maybe I am missing something, as someone not involved in the industry but as someone that potentially could look to move onto his '2nd' home (was 1st time buyer in 2008) there doesn't seem to much under £250k that I would seriously consider buying.
eastlondonseagull
Well-known member
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #626
There were several factors that led the recovery in 2009. Mostly it was about supply and demand - few houses up for sale, and lots of mugs looking to get a bargain after the 15% fall in the market. So prices were pushed up.
During 2010 this situation changed due to a combination of fewer buyers due mortgage restraints, abolition of HIPs, BTL landlords in financial difficulties, banks offloading recovered properties, and savvy sellers getting out before the crash. So the supply and demand is in reverse and prices are dropping.
At present we are just on the turn and some places may hold up better than others for a while. All this has happened without an inevitable increase in interest rates and the effects of the recent austerity measures. Put that in the pot and you have a potent brew.
Lokki 7
WSU
I've been hearing some very smelly stories from the States about the fall out from the sub-prime debacle. If they turn out to be true then expect bank lending to dry up and prices to take another serious battering when the news breaks. Hold onto your hats lads, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #629
Broken Ladder
•The average age of a first time buyer purchasing without financial assistance has now gone up to 37.
•Nearly a third of men and a fifth of women aged 20-34 are living with their parents.
•In 2007 first time buyers’ numbers fell to their lowest level for 30 years, they are yet to recover significantly.
http://www.hip-consultant.co.uk/blog/is-the-property-ladder-broken-123/
•The average age of a first time buyer purchasing without financial assistance has now gone up to 37.
•Nearly a third of men and a fifth of women aged 20-34 are living with their parents.
•In 2007 first time buyers’ numbers fell to their lowest level for 30 years, they are yet to recover significantly.
http://www.hip-consultant.co.uk/blog/is-the-property-ladder-broken-123/
larus
Well-known member
And that just goes to show the stupidity involved with everyone who thinks house price rises are a good thing.
I too think we're going to get a crash/adjustment over the near term. There may be times when we get a dead-cat bounce, but if you read unbiased comments (can recommend http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/), then you'll see that there's a lot to be concerned about.
Just because you don't want a house price crash, doesn't mean that it's not going to happen.
Add to this the problems with ForeclosureGate in the States (there's also something else doing the rounds out there and the figures are frightening, but I can't remember what it relates to - maybe Uncle C or Lokki can advise), then it's not good.
Oh, then there's the instability within the Eurozone. All that the EU have done is kick the can down the road in terms of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain.
Why does this all matter?; it comes back to the ability of our banks to lend money - simples.
severnside gull
Well-known member
not CRASHING then
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #632
The thread title reads 'House prices to crash'. Thats like a prediction, not a statement of the current situation.
I also supplied the graph so people can follow for themselves where we are in the bubble cycle --- just turning the corner after the return to 'normal'.
If you have the stomach for it, then scan the entire 32 pages of this thread. I dont think you will find anywhere that I have said house prices are crashing.
I have based my postings primarily on facts and data.
The Maharajah of Sydney
Well-known member
This MERS debacle could ultimately see a number of banks and other financial institutions go belly-up .
Billions & billions of dollars of incorrectly documented mortgage titles with disputed ownership .
Lokki 7
WSU
I have no idea why the stockmarket is so bouyant, none of this downside potential is being priced in. I would not recommend stocks or property as an investment to anyone right now, next year could be messy.
Hatterlovesbrighton
something clever
The stock exchange is all relative though. If they are expecting it to be very shit and its only a bit shit, then stocks should go up.
Lokki 7
WSU
At the moment it is more a case of closing your eyes, crossing your fingers and hoping it all blows away before anyone notices.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,018
problem with the graph is, you can only apply it retrospectivly. we could for instance be in the bear trap point of a much longer trend. if you follow the site its sourced from, it thinks we've been in this cycle since the 1970's. as true as that might be, we've had three housing bubbles in that time, which dont all show in the graph.
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beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,018
growth and low interest rates? if you can get funding, you dont need to pay much for it. private equity buying up lots of company stock, QE has moved money from bonds to shares too. isnt it also a simple outlook that recovery follows recession?
perhaps some investors think there is a world outside of the USA and UK?
Lokki 7
WSU
Growth, well only just. Low interest rates, but businesses and homeowners struggling to get loans. The forclosure debacle looming like a tidal wave about to crash over the 'recovery'. I see a lot more downside potential than up. As stated elsewhere, we could easily see banks under huge strain again over this in the coming months regardless of how it is managed.