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House prices to crash
- Thread starter Uncle C
- Start date
The Modfather
New member
Like I said, just a correction in Brighton.
According to that website, £250k for a bog standard 3 bed house in Baden Road.
I know this area well, and despite the price reducing, this is still overpriced.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,018
you've refered to that site before. it doesnt really show much, other than highlight some lemons in the market and some that have been overvalued. just because an asking price was £167k doesnt mean its dropping to £135k is a reflection of the wider market. a house unsold for over a year probably suggest some fundemental problem with the house, not a reflection of the wider market.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,018
you've refered to that site before. it doesnt really show much, other than highlight some lemons in the market and some that have been overvalued. just because an individual asking price was £167k doesnt mean its dropping to £135k is a reflection of the wider market. a house unsold for over a year probably suggest some fundemental problem with the house, not a reflection of the wider market. yes, the market is down, but its not 30% down because one property has lowered their asking price that much.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,018
and where do you get 470 lemons from? firstly, i would question the quality of the source data when number 2 on the list is not even a Brighton property. secondly, from page 7 they show 10% drops in prices - is that normal or unnormal? where is the background to compare to? the hundreds listed that are only a few% down certainly support the claim "prices have hardly reduced". the site is quite vulgar really, i dont really see the need to highlight and take such glee because a few poor sods on the first pages are either desperate to sell, greedy/poorly advised by estate agents or have problem properties.
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #589
You can question what you like, and nit-pick over individual examples, but if there were no price reductions then the search would show 0 properties not 470.
Of course there are a range of reductions, the market has only just turned downwards again. I have never claimed that the crash has happened, just that it has started.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,018
its hardly nitpicking when a source is so riddled with false data. past the obvious Rottingdean and foreign listings, a couple more properties picked out are from Crawley and Haywards Heath. not exactly a representation of values in BN1 then. as a data source its evidently unreliable and therefore any conclusions drawn from it must be too.
(not that im saying prices arent falling, just lets not refer to that dodgy site again)
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #591
There is a much better site for looking at historical house prices for those that are seriously interested. The Property Snake site gives a quick and dirty summary of the market place, which is useful to to give an overall impression when folks are skim reading like on NSC.
If you would like better, then go to Property-Bee. When you view a property listing on a site like rightmove.co.uk, the toolbar will show the changes to the price and details since the property was listed.
http://www.property-bee.com/
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,018
quick and dirty? over half the properties on the first page on the link provided arent even in Brighton, and i believe only one is actually in BN1. how can one trust the valuation if the country or town isnt even corrrect? grossly inaccurate and distorted would be a better description.
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #593
I think, like many NSC postings, this is a gross over reaction. A real 'dummy out the pram' moment.
The postcode is used by the site to target the area within and around that postcode. The price reductions are real enough which is the whole point of this thread.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,018
if highlighting the site is obviously inaccurate is overreating, so be it. how can you know the price reductions are real, since the accuracy of the site is shown to be so poor?
Uncle C
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #596
The International Monetary Fund have asked me to attach the following.
"The fund, in its half-yearly World Economic Outlook, said it was 'worrisome' that UK property prices still remained so expensive.
What remains worrisome (about the UK), is that house prices are still high based on traditional valuation yardsticks, and policy support may not be enough to prevent further correction."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/06/uk-housing-market-set-for-fall-imf
"The fund, in its half-yearly World Economic Outlook, said it was 'worrisome' that UK property prices still remained so expensive.
What remains worrisome (about the UK), is that house prices are still high based on traditional valuation yardsticks, and policy support may not be enough to prevent further correction."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/06/uk-housing-market-set-for-fall-imf
seagullsovergrimsby
#cpfctinpotclub
There are 2 houses in my street that are for sale , one has been on the market just over 2 years , the other which is our neighbours , 15 months. The house which has been on the longest had an original asking price of £225k and our neighbours went on at £195k , both are now on at £185k. These houses are in a small development of 4 bed detached homes built within the last 7 years. The first house has had 2 viewings and our neighbours none. The problem locally is nothing is happening at what is the medium to top end of the market in Grimsby. You can still pick up a 3 bed semi (ex council) for £100k and providing you have a 30% deposit getting a mortgage is feasible.
The Modfather
New member
I suppose it depends on each individuals interpretation of a "crash".
It doesn't take a member of mensa to realise that property prices are vastly overpriced in the South of England, and that during a recession these prices will reduce.
If prices reduce to a such a level that it is more affordable for people to get on the property ladder, surely this will kickstart the market again, particluarly among first time buyers.
The last crash, in the early 90's was caused due to the large number of repossessions when mortgage repayments became unaffordable. This should not happen on such a scale this time due to the unprecedented low mortgage rates.
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
Some excellent news for Uncle C today just announced.
UK house prices fell 3.6% in September, Halifax says There has been an increase in the number of properties available House prices fell by 3.6% in September from the previous month, according to the latest figures from the Halifax.
However the bank, now part of the Lloyds Banking Group, said it was too early to conclude that this was the start of a sustained fall in prices.
The three-month on three-month comparison, seen as a smoother measure of prices showed a 0.9% drop in September.
The average UK home is now valued at £162,096, the survey found.
UK house prices fell 3.6% in September, Halifax says There has been an increase in the number of properties available House prices fell by 3.6% in September from the previous month, according to the latest figures from the Halifax.
However the bank, now part of the Lloyds Banking Group, said it was too early to conclude that this was the start of a sustained fall in prices.
The three-month on three-month comparison, seen as a smoother measure of prices showed a 0.9% drop in September.
The average UK home is now valued at £162,096, the survey found.
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
More properties on market
Less people wanting/able to buy
Lenders still not giving mortgages 3 years after the credit crunch started, mortgage numbers still running at less than 50% of historic average
Austerity measures and lack of confidence in public sector
FSA want to make it harder/impossible to get a mortgage in the future with a raft and ill thought out restictive measures at a time when the market is already on its knees.
The Doomsday scenario and prediction of Uncle C may come true.
Less people wanting/able to buy
Lenders still not giving mortgages 3 years after the credit crunch started, mortgage numbers still running at less than 50% of historic average
Austerity measures and lack of confidence in public sector
FSA want to make it harder/impossible to get a mortgage in the future with a raft and ill thought out restictive measures at a time when the market is already on its knees.
The Doomsday scenario and prediction of Uncle C may come true.