General Election predictions

[tinycowboy]

Laura Kuenssberg doesn't seem to think it'll be close. I know many doubt her impartiality, but, out of interest anyway, she says:

"Again and again, whether in Wales, or the Midlands, or the North East, we heard voters say "I'm normally Labour, but…" contemplating voting Conservative for the first time. That was certainly partly down to the public perception of Jeremy Corbyn. Labour campaigners reported a vitriolic reaction to Jeremy Corbyn in many places. One candidate texted in shock to say, "you can't overestimate how unpopular he is on the doorsteps". Labour, Tory, SNP, or Lib Dem we heard this time and again. Whatever the picture the national polls suggest, some Labour candidates still believe their party could be looking at a dreadful set of results with the party crashing to well below 200 seats."

 

[ManOfSussex]

Tory majority of 50 and Amber Rudd to hold Hastings & Rye. (Unfortunately)

Disastrous Brexit negotiations to come and the fact I think she's damaged goods from this campaign, I don't think May will be around this next time next year.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Tory win with ease, however May to be gone within the year

 

[Brian Parsons]

I find myself for the first time ever unsure of who will win. The Tories will mean further austerity and further erosion of the NHS and heaven forbid the return of fox hunting. Labour scares me shitless and the Lib Dems are a Mickey mouse outfit. Tories with no change of majority.

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk

 

[soistes]

Smallish Tory majority 10-30 seats.

I think they'll hang onto most Midlands/Northern seats they won last time, and gain a few more (like Birmingham Edgebaston) as previous Labour defectors to UKIP shift to the Tories this time. However,even in this area Labour may regain a few marginals they just lost with small majorities to the Tories last time (e.g. where there's a student vote like Derby North) which will dent the Tory majority. I think it will be further dented by a small number of Tory losses in London and parts of the South East where there was a strong remain vote and/or a strong student vote (e.g Kemptown to Labour, Twickenham to Lib Dems) .

May won't survive for long after the election, as the Tory party will turn on her for having dragged them through a nervy election campaign for no obvious benefit, and because the "strong and stable" brand which was her big selling point going into the Brexit negotiations has been irreparably damaged.

This will be seen as a relative success for Corbyn (compared with the wipe-out that most commentators predicted and many of the Labour centrists predicted, and some wanted), and will strengthen his chances of surviving for a while.

 

[Bob!]

Tory majority around 40.
May unable to negotiate a Brexit deal.
Ends up with her preferred option of no deal.
May resigns.
Health Service trashed.
Corbyn win in 2022.

 

[Don Quixote]

Conservative majority. Conservatives on 350, labour on about 220. Lib dems a handful.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Sticking with my 80 - 120 Tory landslide prediction. 103.

 

[1234andcounting]

Tories with small overall majority, 15-20 seats. Lib Dems regain some seats lost in 2015. Can't see May hanging on for long after the election though. Probably the least inspiring election campaign by a PM that I can remember. She is so dull she makes John Major look like David Bowie (now), Prince (also now) and Johnny Depp (as Captain Sparrow rather than the method acting wife beater) rolled into one.

 

[Ernest]

Labour to win by a majority of 400+

 

[hart's shirt]

Albion to finish higher than Palace.

 

[jakarta]

In the end most people will look at the Corbyn/McDonnell/Abbott combination and think no thank you very much.

The Tories have had a terrible campaign but will limp over the line with a majority of 30 or so.

 

[ForestRowSeagull]

Labour around 200 seats, Tory with a significant majority. 1 green and no UKIP.

 

[Triggaaar]

As a natural Tory voter (by this I mean - to paraphrase - "It's the economy stupid" as the economy needs to be successful to fund everything else)

It's not possible that you vote Tory for the good of the country, you do it because either:
a) You're stupid
b) You're a selfish ****

I'm told (via NSC) those are the only possible reason.

However, this election is really so tough to call.

Don't worry, the shy tories will vote when it matters.

 

[SK1NT]

Unfortunately a Tory majority 45-50.

However at least Labour won't be used as a scape goat when people realise that our brexit deal is nowhere near as good as the deal we had in the EU.

Nobody will come out of the Brexit negotiations looking good and i'd rather that be the Tories.

 

[Triggaaar]

I predict a combination of May not being able to handle negotiations and the party increasingly red faced at her fumbling attempts and humiliating scenes at negotiations that she will step down from leadership in the next 6 months.

I predict you'll be wrong. And when it's pointed out that you're wrong, you'll make some lame excuse.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Blue majority of about 30.

Both leaders replaced with 12 months, shambles in the campaign all round. May needs more presence and I wouldn't leave Jezza in charge of a kettle unsupervised.

Farron, Sturgeon looking at alternative careers totally.

 

[inland seagull]

It wouldn't surprise me if the current Tory majority of 17 seats remains the same, however I don't think any result would surprise me . Labour were looking strong in the polls at the weekend but Diane Abbott has once again dragged the party throught the mire. I can't help thinking that many voters will get to the polling booth and decide that they just can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn

 

[SK1NT]

http://b3ta.com/blog/anti-tory-election-posters-for-you-to-share/

 

[Simster]

If that happens, the Remainers will be proved right, as Brexit will be a ****ing disaster.

No more so than with Theresa May leading negotiations - she is f**king useless and is surrounded by utter nobs who talk like we're absolutely enormous players on the world stage. Take Michael Howard, who thought he'd help out by talking about going to war with the Spanish if they held us to ransom over Gib. I know he isn't in the cabinet, but he is still a prominent figure and is just the sort of nob I am talking about.


In the key marginals, the gap between Cons and Lab is less than 5%, so a lot will depend on whether the young vote comes out. They rarely do, so I'll go with a Tory majority of 30-35.