General Election predictions

[poidy]

Surely if you take this thread as a poll, the amount of people that have said "unfortunately a Tory majority" would suggest it will be a lot closer than that?


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[happypig]

A charismatic Conservative leader would see the Tories looking at a 100+ majority. But Theresa May has been the worst Leader, in terms of campaigning, that I can remember (except possibly Michael Howard. No, actually, even worse than him).
Even so, I reckpn a Tory majority of maybe 10-15.

Looking at afterwards:
If May doesn't get a greatly increased majority, then she's a dead woman walking. If the majority is reduced she'll be gone before the clocks go back.
If Corbyn doesn't become PM, he'll be gone. How acrimonious and damaging this is for Labour will depend on the manner of his departure.

For the life of me, though, I cannot see why she called an Election as it would either mean her or Corbyn (and possibly both) would, sooner or later, be toast. From the Tories perspective, a different Labour leader would be more likely than Corbyn to win next time.

 

[Icy Gull]

It's the year of surprises, the IRA supporter may well win this...policies apart, he is also way too shifty looking for me to have any faith in him at all. Fingers crossed I'm wrong.

 

[larus]

It's not possible that you vote Tory for the good of the country, you do it because either:
a) You're stupid
b) You're a selfish ****

I'm told (via NSC) those are the only possible reason.

Don't worry, the shy tories will vote when it matters.

Or c) I'm a stupid ****.

 

[Triggaaar]

No more so than with Theresa May leading negotiations - she is f**king useless and is surrounded by utter nobs who talk like we're absolutely enormous players on the world stage.

She's far better than Corbyn, which is why many Labour supporters are considering voting Tory for the first time, and why Labour MPs resigned from his cabinet. And of course the government act like we're big players in the world stage - we have the 5th largest economy in the world, we hardly want to pretend we're insignificant when conducting our negotiations.

Take Michael Howard, who thought he'd help out by talking about going to war with the Spanish if they held us to ransom over Gib.

He just said we'd defend Gibraltar if we had to, which of course we won't have to. He should have avoided the question more, but his comment hardly matters.

I know he isn't in the cabinet, but he is still a prominent figure and is just the sort of nob I am talking about.

Yeah, he's not a patch on Abbott.

 

[pearl]

Tory landslide unfortunately

 

[wellquickwoody]

30 plus Tory Majority but May will be seen to be useless at Brexit and there could be another GE election before we leave the EU. JC has done better than expected and if he picks his new shadow cabinet with a little more eye for the middle ground he could be the first post Brexit PM. I wish you all luck with that!

 

[LamieRobertson]

No more so than with Theresa May leading negotiations - she is f**king useless and is surrounded by utter nobs who talk like we're absolutely enormous players on the world stage. Take Michael Howard, who thought he'd help out by talking about going to war with the Spanish if they held us to ransom over Gib. I know he isn't in the cabinet, but he is still a prominent figure and is just the sort of nob I am talking about.


In the key marginals, the gap between Cons and Lab is less than 5%, so a lot will depend on whether the young vote comes out. They rarely do, so I'll go with a Tory majority of 30-35.

Lol..nice first paragraph ..it has to be those 'nobs' who convinced her to go for a GE

 

[Triggaaar]

Looking at afterwards:
If May doesn't get a greatly increased majority, then she's a dead woman walking. If the majority is reduced she'll be gone before the clocks go back.

Regardless of the fact she'll have failed to increase her majority, she will have won the election - so I don't see why she'll step down. Which PM has ever done that after winning their first election?

If Corbyn doesn't become PM, he'll be gone.

You'd think so, but if he does well and it's close, he'll see it as a win and that the country is getting behind his ideas etc. He's refused to step down when his party asked him to, so can we be sure he would after doing quite well in the election?

 

[LamieRobertson]

She's far better than Corbyn, which is why many Labour supporters are considering voting Tory for the first time, and why Labour MPs resigned from his cabinet. And of course the government act like we're big players in the world stage - we have the 5th largest economy in the world, we hardly want to pretend we're insignificant when conducting our negotiations.

He just said we'd defend Gibraltar if we had to, which of course we won't have to. He should have avoided the question more, but his comment hardly matters.

Yeah, he's not a patch on Abbott.

But the perception in the last couple of weeks seems to be that May isent better than Corbyn ..how many people will go by this

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Tory majority of 44.

 

[Triggaaar]

But the perception in the last couple of weeks seems to be that May isent better than Corbyn

According to whom?

 

[LamieRobertson]

Regardless of the fact she'll have failed to increase her majority, she will have won the election - so I don't see why she'll step down. Which PM has ever done that after winning their first election?

You'd think so, but if he does well and it's close, he'll see it as a win and that the country is getting behind his ideas etc. He's refused to step down when his party asked him to, so can we be sure he would after doing quite well in the election?

I'd agree with that last para

 

[LamieRobertson]

According to whom?

People I engage with ..yourself excluded

 

[Triggaaar]

People I engage with ..yourself excluded

You need to start engaging with brighter people

Seriously though, it's tricky to change your judgement of someone whose been avoiding interviews.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Amazes me that people would actually vote Tory based on the idea that May, Davis, Fox et al are more likely to make a success of negotiations with the EU.

Aside from the fact that the negotiations are not going to end favourably for the UK whoever is involved, I wouldn't trust that shower of halfwits in a sixth form debating society, let alone with this.

And no, I'm not a Labour supporter and I don't think that their team would necessarily did a better job. But to base your vote on these people being competent at anything is lunacy.

Tories will win, Brexit negotiations will be a disaster, May gone (the sharks are already circling after her total and utter shambles of a campaign), then....who knows?

 

[Icy Gull]

But the perception in the last couple of weeks seems to be that May isent better than Corbyn ..how many people will go by this

The IRA links suggest otherwise

 

[Triggaaar]

Amazes me that people would actually vote Tory based on the idea that May, Davis, Fox et al are more likely to make a success of negotiations with the EU.

Aside from the fact that the negotiations are not going to end favourably for the UK whoever is involved, I wouldn't trust that shower of halfwits in a sixth form debating society, let alone with this.

And no, I'm not a Labour supporter and I don't think that their team would necessarily did a better job.

Right, but we need a government of some sort, and someone has to do the Brexit negotiations. So out the options available, who do you want that to be - May, or Corbyn (possibly Corbyn in a coalition government)?

 

[happypig]

Regardless of the fact she'll have failed to increase her majority, she will have won the election - so I don't see why she'll step down. Which PM has ever done that after winning their first election?

Anthony Eden, 1957

 

[LamieRobertson]

You need to start engaging with brighter people

Seriously though, it's tricky to change your judgement of someone whose been avoiding interviews.

Lol true ..my opinion of her was formed long ago and she's done nothing to change it ..on the other hand would I want JC to lead this country in a crisis ..tricky for sure