[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Napper]

Although I would love those results I can't see the tories doing that badly! My gut says they'll get around 150+ and labour's majority will be far less than predicted

Suspect so . Very rare to find anyone who admits being a Tory ( even when they were popular )

When it comes to the crunch . The selfish ones will still put their x in the Tory box

Won’t be as bad for them as predicted

 

[Lenny Rider]

Suspect so . Very rare to find anyone who admits being a Tory ( even when they were popular )

When it comes to the crunch . The selfish ones will still put their x in the Tory box

Won’t be as bad for them as predicted

My daughter, a fully paid up Labour member since she was 16, went out ‘door knocking’ with the Labour canvassing team in Worthing West on Saturday and Sunday, she commented on the large amount of people on the doorsteps who said they were either still voting Tory because they always had done or they hadn’t yet made their minds up.

I still think we’ve yet to see a real media blitz against Farage and Reform, it possibly started on Friday night with the Nick Robinson Putin question, which will help firm up what’s left of the Tory vote.

Still reckon they will end up with between 130/150 seats, which isn’t a bad thing as an effective opposition is an important pre requisite for democracy.

Back in the Corbyn days, there was talk of Labour wanting to lower the voting age to 16, if they still want to do that, is that just put through by an act of parliament or does that have to be a referendum to the country?

 

[Weststander]

My daughter, a fully paid up Labour member since she was 16, went out ‘door knocking’ with the Labour canvassing team in Worthing West on Saturday and Sunday, she commented on the large amount of people on the doorsteps who said they were either still voting Tory because they always had done or they hadn’t yet made their minds up.

I still think we’ve yet to see a real media blitz against Farage and Reform, it possibly started on Friday night with the Nick Robinson Putin question, which will help firm up what’s left of the Tory vote.

Still reckon they will end up with between 130/150 seats, which isn’t a bad thing as an effective opposition is an important pre requisite for democracy.

Back in the Corbyn days, there was talk of Labour wanting to lower the voting age to 16, if they still want to do that, is that just put through by an act of parliament or does that have to be a referendum to the country?

Act of parliament.

 

[Lenny Rider]

Act of parliament.

Worrying

 

[Weststander]

Worrying

Just have to go with uncontrollables. I’m more worried about the rise of both extremes. Going by Europe just now including France, it might surprise nsc’ers to know that this includes millions of young voters choosing far right parties.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Still reckon they will end up with between 130/150 seats, which isn’t a bad thing as an effective opposition is an important pre requisite for democracy.

I know this is ‘just an opinion’ but as stated on earlier on this thread, if you’ve got the balls to put your money where your mouth is, you’ll be doing very well at the bookies!

However, a word of warning. Visits to the bookies has not been working so well for your fellow Tories recently!

 

[Lenny Rider]

Just have to go with uncontrollables. I’m more worried about the rise of both extremes. Going by Europe just now including France, it might surprise nsc’ers to know that this includes millions of young voters choosing far right parties.

Depends what they get promised in the various manifestos though

 

[Weststander]

I know this is ‘just an opinion’ but as stated on earlier on this thread, if you’ve got the balls to put your money where your mouth is, you’ll be doing very well at the bookies!

View attachment 184593

However, a word of warning. Visits to the bookies has not been working so well for your fellow Tories recently!

The Telegraph talks of 79 seats, even a literally party ending 21 seats (to be replaced by a racist/Putin loving Reform).

Hard to see 100 seats. If that happens, perhaps due to shy Tories voting and nonchalance amongst non-Tories not voting.

 

[Bodian]

My daughter, a fully paid up Labour member since she was 16, went out ‘door knocking’ with the Labour canvassing team in Worthing West on Saturday and Sunday, she commented on the large amount of people on the doorsteps who said they were either still voting Tory because they always had done or they hadn’t yet made their minds up.

I still think we’ve yet to see a real media blitz against Farage and Reform, it possibly started on Friday night with the Nick Robinson Putin question, which will help firm up what’s left of the Tory vote.

Still reckon they will end up with between 130/150 seats, which isn’t a bad thing as an effective opposition is an important pre requisite for democracy.

Back in the Corbyn days, there was talk of Labour wanting to lower the voting age to 16, if they still want to do that, is that just put through by an act of parliament or does that have to be a referendum to the country?

Why would the L:ib Dems not be an 'effective opposition'?

 

[Lenny Rider]

I know this is ‘just an opinion’ but as stated on earlier on this thread, if you’ve got the balls to put your money where your mouth is, you’ll be doing very well at the bookies!

View attachment 184593

However, a word of warning. Visits to the bookies has not been working so well for your fellow Tories recently!

Hugo old boy, since first voting in the local elections of 1983, I’ve voted for every single major party both locally and nationally, bar the far right, based on the candidate rather than the party.

This weekend with Mrs H away and my Grandson having his daily nap I’ve had the chance to sit down and read all the literature that’s been put through my door*, I’ve also had both the Tories and Labour actually knock on my door.

Due to boundaries and related house moves I’m not in a position to vote for Sir Peter Bottomley this time, who despite his numerous detractors on here, is a good constituency MP.

Having spoken to both sets of canvassers and read all the leaflets, I know who I’m going to vote for, I doubt it will affect the overall result but IMHO it’s the person who would serve the people of East Worthing best.

*I‘m surprised big Nigel, didn’t go the whole hog and put a Union Flag with a swastika on the Reform election leaflet

 

[Lenny Rider]

The Telegraph talks of 79 seats, even a literally party ending 21 seats (to be replaced by a racist/Putin loving Reform).

Hard to see 100 seats. If that happens, perhaps due to shy Tories voting and nonchalance amongst non-Tories not voting.

Do you not think this all part of the fear factor?

Almost scaring the silent Tories and ‘undecided’ to go the polling stations.

I would have expected nothing less but the The Mail, whether popular on here or not, but the most visited Newspaper Website in the UK have gone with this today.

Seat by seat, how you can help stop a Starmer supermajority

A survey by More in Common found 96 seats in which the Conservatives were within five points of Labour. Winning all of them would see the Tories get 203 seats and slash Labour's majority.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Hugo Rune]

The Telegraph talks of 79 seats, even a literally party ending 21 seats (to be replaced by a racist/Putin loving Reform).

Hard to see 100 seats. If that happens, perhaps due to shy Tories voting and nonchalance amongst non-Tories not voting.

I’m not sure that the shy Tory vote will be a thing on the 4th July, even if it is, it’ll surely be neutralised by the shy Labour votes.

That’s the 6% or so who have ditched Labour since the last election as they are not left wing enough. Despite the campaigns of cretins like Owen Jones, I’m seeing a realisation on social media (from these types) that they’ll hold their noses and vote the Tories out. I’ve seen a lot of stuff on social media to suggest this will happen. Folk who were saying ‘Starmer is a c***’ now talking about voting Labour then changing the party from within once they are in power.

The exception will be people who are voting on a situation on another continent who wrongly believe the UK government have any power or influence to change the situation. That will result in some surprise Tory and Reform wins which is odd, because those candidates will be far less sympathetic to their one issue voting choice than a Labour candidate.

 

[Lenny Rider]

I’m not sure that the shy Tory vote will be a thing on the 4th July, even if it is, it’ll surely be neutralised by the shy Labour votes.

That’s the 6% or so who have ditched Labour since the last election as they are not left wing enough. Despite the campaigns of cretins like Owen Jones, I’m seeing a realisation on social media (from these types) that they’ll hold their noses and vote the Tories out. I’ve seen a lot of stuff on social media to suggest this will happen. Folk who were saying ‘Starmer is a c***’ now talking about voting Labour then changing the party from within once they are in power.

The exception will be people who are voting on a situation on another continent who wrongly believe the UK government have any power or influence to change the situation. That will result in some surprise Tory and Reform wins which is odd, because those candidates will be far less sympathetic to their one issue voting choice than a Labour candidate.

Out of interest Hugo whats your overall prediction seats wise?

And if the Tories end up with less than a 100 and with the Lib Dem’s snapping at their heels around the 60 mark, will that effectively signal the end of the Tory party as we know it?

 

[stewart12]

Out of interest Hugo whats your overall prediction seats wise?

And if the Tories end up with less than a 100 and with the Lib Dem’s snapping at their heels around the 60 mark, will that effectively signal the end of the Tory party as we know it?

we've already seen the end of the Tory party as we know/have known it- it really started with, or slightly before, Brexit and was accelerated when Johnson and Cummings purged the party of a huge sway of moderate MP's. What will be left on the party after the election will be very interesting. I imagine we'll see a big leap to the right in an effort to combat Reform and it'll be a constant banging on about immigration. There's plenty of decent, moderate Tory MP's and it's a shame they haven't been more vocal in recent years as I imagine a lot of them are about to lose their jobs

 

[Weststander]

I’m not sure that the shy Tory vote will be a thing on the 4th July, even if it is, it’ll surely be neutralised by the shy Labour votes.

That’s the 6% or so who have ditched Labour since the last election as they are not left wing enough. Despite the campaigns of cretins like Owen Jones, I’m seeing a realisation on social media (from these types) that they’ll hold their noses and vote the Tories out. I’ve seen a lot of stuff on social media to suggest this will happen. Folk who were saying ‘Starmer is a c***’ now talking about voting Labour then changing the party from within once they are in power.

The exception will be people who are voting on a situation on another continent who wrongly believe the UK government have any power or influence to change the situation. That will result in some surprise Tory and Reform wins which is odd, because those candidates will be far less sympathetic to their one issue voting choice than a Labour candidate.

Genuinely never heard of that phenomenon. It's always been a badge of honour, even amongst super rich tax avoiding celebs to say "I'm Labour".

 

[Eeyore]

I’m not sure that the shy Tory vote will be a thing on the 4th July, even if it is, it’ll surely be neutralised by the shy Labour votes.

That’s the 6% or so who have ditched Labour since the last election as they are not left wing enough. Despite the campaigns of cretins like Owen Jones, I’m seeing a realisation on social media (from these types) that they’ll hold their noses and vote the Tories out. I’ve seen a lot of stuff on social media to suggest this will happen. Folk who were saying ‘Starmer is a c***’ now talking about voting Labour then changing the party from within once they are in power.

The exception will be people who are voting on a situation on another continent who wrongly believe the UK government have any power or influence to change the situation. That will result in some surprise Tory and Reform wins which is odd, because those candidates will be far less sympathetic to their one issue voting choice than a Labour candidate.

With its algorithms, social media is a personal bubble. I was sure BREXIT wasn't going to happen.

Part of me still thinks that the Tories, although defeated heavily, will do better than the polls suggest. Another part of me wonders if they will face their Canada moment and a new opposition will be formed over the next 5 years.

For an election that is so cut and dried it is the most intriguing one I can remember.

 

[Lenny Rider]

With it's algorithms, social media is a personal bubble. I was sure BREXIT wasn't going to happen.

Part of me still thinks that the Tories, although defeated heavily, will do better than the polls suggest. Another part of me wonders if they will face their Canada moment and a new opposition will be formed over the next 5 years.

For an election that is so cut and dried it is the most intriguing one I can remember.

Like many others I went to bed that night thinking Remain would win, for all his faults, the loss of Cameron as PM is a pivotal part of the recent history of the UK.

We will obviously never know but I wonder if there would be a different scenario if this election was Dave vs Sir Keir?

 

[Eeyore]

Like many others I went to bed that night thinking Remain would win, for all his faults, the loss of Cameron as PM is a pivotal part of the recent history of the UK.

We will obviously never know but I wonder if there would be a different scenario if this election was Dave vs Sir Keir?

I think the wipe out here has more to do with the public having had enough of the Tories themselves rather than government policy.

If anyone asked me what I don't like about them most I would say gongs for mates, Partygate, contracts for mates and the utter contempt they seem to show for folk at large. People have had enough of it. The betting thing, although small, is a snapshot of it all.

As regards day to running of government, I doubt much will change under Labour (despite the right wing press trying to tell us they eat babies). I think most see it that way and that's why the Tories are in for a rout. Add to that Farage to appeal to the popular illusion that white van man is non-gratis in his own country and it's not looking good for them.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I think the wipe out here has more to do with the public having had enough of the Tories themselves rather than government policy.

If anyone asked me what I don't like about them most I would say gongs for mates, Partygate, contracts for mates and the utter contempt they seem to show for folk at large. People have had enough of it. The betting thing, although small, is a snapshot of it all.

As regards day to running of government, I doubt much will change under Labour (despite the right wing press trying to tell us they eat babies). I think most see it that way and that's why the Tories are in for a rout. Add to that Farage to appeal to the popular illusion that white van man is non-gratis in his own country and it's not looking good for them.

If all Labour achieve is an end to strikes, a modest reduction in NHS waiting times and a stabilisation of inflation and corresponding reduction in interest rates it’ll honestly be fantastic for the country.

Daily life is a stress filled snowball of delay, worry and financial difficulties for so many these days, while the government hand out contracts to their mates and guzzle wine in Downing Street.

Five years of an adult in charge, doing their best. That’s what it comes down to people voting for after eight years of chaos.

I genuinely feel sorry for the hard working, well meaning centre right One Nation Tories, of whom there are many. They’ve seen their party transformed by a coup.

 

[Weststander]

With its algorithms, social media is a personal bubble. I was sure BREXIT wasn't going to happen.

Part of me still thinks that the Tories, although defeated heavily, will do better than the polls suggest. Another part of me wonders if they will face their Canada moment and a new opposition will be formed over the next 5 years.

For an election that is so cut and dried it is the most intriguing one I can remember.

Very true about social media. I know several Labour and Tory voters who up until the 10pm exit poll in 2019 thought Corbyn was a near cert for Prime Minister.

Making the fatal mistake that an avalanche (100m’s?) of Facebook and Twitter posts then likes, all Momentum loving during the campaign, was representative. It was the same niche voters in an echo chamber, it meant little.