[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Machiavelli]

Interesting to note the change in polling in late September - a tory collapse and a labour 'soar'.

I can't recall what happened to trigger this. Sunk had been 'in charge' for a year. Any thoughts?

Edit @Bob! points out that was 2022, and was the 'Truss Experiment'. And she is still an MP and is earning money talking bollocks at 'meetings' in America. Sake!

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There are two precipitous falls in Tory support during this parliament. The first was when Partygate came out, the second was KamiKwasi-related.

 

[Weststander]

It’s an Owen Jones thing. The narrative is that Labour is the same as the Tories because Starmer decapitated Corbyn. I suppose it’s just some of the social media channels I follow but the venom directed at Labour has been astonishing.

However, since the election has been called, I’ve seen a huge reduction in it. Owen Jones’ campaign to reduce the Labour majority seems to be being rejected. My impression is that rhe hard left voters who had declared they’d never vote Labour under Starmer have shifted to voting the Tories out, even if it means placing an X in the red box.

My theory on that, is not their restraint, when do gobs on a stick shut up? Instead they've been blindsided by the scale of the likely majority and Labour's seamless success in the last three weeks in ousting antisemitic candidates. Even the Abbott shenanigans, when you look back, was a coup. The bitter left jumped the gun in thinking they had a Starmer/Reeves gotcha moment.

This was predicted by several of us years back. The main group attempting to ruin Starmer/Reeves first term will be the unelectable rabble who demand a domestic and overseas tick list with no compromise.

A huge majority of sensible MP's leaves that in tatters.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Was out canvassing for Faiza Shaheen in South Woodford, amongst over 300 that spread around the constituency on Sunday. My team of 6 was only joined by Faiza and my only non BHA sporting hero - Ronnie O'Sullivan! Bloomin' marvelous!

Hope she wins.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Reading this and the contribution from @Eeyore you're responding to, it's almost as if the IFS have it completely wrong and, really, all the fundamentals are in place. Nothing to see here. The policy framework is working brilliantly. There are no foreseeable problems ahead. Let's have more of the same.
I know you're both not saying that and would hope that you don't think that, but let's say I disagree with the thrust of both of your contributions.

I’m saying the opposite. I think the things I listed are all any new government can realistically achieve.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Was out canvassing for Faiza Shaheen in South Woodford, amongst over 300 that spread around the constituency on Sunday. My team of 6 was only joined by Faiza and my only non BHA sporting hero - Ronnie O'Sullivan! Bloomin' marvelous!

Splitting the anti-tory vote, ensuring that Duncan-Smith is re-elected.

Edit, although apparently not. See https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/threads/general-election-2024-4th-july.408105/post-11185950

 

[Weststander]

There are two precipitous falls in Tory support during this parliament. The first was when Partygate came out, the second was KamiKwasi-related.

On that graph if you take Jan 20 to Nov 21, the 44% election high had fallen by 4%.

After that, do you think other things were at play too? R5/LB phone ins and media coverage covered what I'd call a pincer movement on governments from both:
a) Mass anger in general about masks, lockdowns, no overseas travel, the cost of furlough, liberties infringed. Pandemic fatigue; and
b) Mass anger that we should locking down far more and for longer, schools closed for much longer, emergency workers excused from work if they were concerned at all.

NSC covid threads exemplified that, it was nasty.

Subsequently governments everywhere paid the price, they were all booted out including Merkel's party, Trump and Macron's party. Just one to go.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Hope she wins.

She won't.

This is the New Statesman view:

"As for Shaheen, her misplaced Twitter “like” of the “Israel lobby” tweet isn’t the whole story. There are other social media posts that might look like red flags to a Labour Party committed to distancing itself from the Corbyn era (and a party anxious about getting drawn into a fight over Gaza). On the day the election was called, she reposted a photo of herself standing with Corbyn, saying she had been “active on Palestine for 20 years and will be so if I make it into gov”. That post has since been deleted, but earlier this week she tweeted that the “number 1 issue on the doorstep and via email so far” in her constituency was Gaza. The list goes on.

You might argue – as plenty are – that none of this is grounds for deselection. But to undecided voters unsure if they can trust Labour, the message this decision sends is that Keir Starmer meant it when he said he would change his party. And the more noise the left makes about it the more likely that message is to be heard. People across the country who have never heard of Faiza Shaheen and don’t care what happens in Chingford and Woodford Green are now aware of the row. The calculation is that the negative sentiment around party infighting will be outweighed, in the minds of key voters, by the sense that Starmer has a zero-tolerance approach."

 

[Audax]

She won't.

This is the New Statesman view:

"As for Shaheen, her misplaced Twitter “like” of the “Israel lobby” tweet isn’t the whole story. There are other social media posts that might look like red flags to a Labour Party committed to distancing itself from the Corbyn era (and a party anxious about getting drawn into a fight over Gaza). On the day the election was called, she reposted a photo of herself standing with Corbyn, saying she had been “active on Palestine for 20 years and will be so if I make it into gov”. That post has since been deleted, but earlier this week she tweeted that the “number 1 issue on the doorstep and via email so far” in her constituency was Gaza. The list goes on.

You might argue – as plenty are – that none of this is grounds for deselection. But to undecided voters unsure if they can trust Labour, the message this decision sends is that Keir Starmer meant it when he said he would change his party. And the more noise the left makes about it the more likely that message is to be heard. People across the country who have never heard of Faiza Shaheen and don’t care what happens in Chingford and Woodford Green are now aware of the row. The calculation is that the negative sentiment around party infighting will be outweighed, in the minds of key voters, by the sense that Starmer has a zero-tolerance approach."

All of which stands in stark contrast to Sunak's approach of ignoring any problems and hope they go away (eg refusing to do anything re: the gambling issue until an "investigation" is completed).

 

[Comrade Sam]

Hope she wins.

It's highly likely, the place is awash with her posters and she's highly respected in the community. The Labour drop in has little support and is literally knocking on doors on her own - she's trying her best to split the anti Tory vote. The last of the local Tories are elderly racist nut jobs.

 

[Comrade Sam]

Also no one gives a toss about her twitter likes.

 

[Hotchilidog]

She won't.

This is the New Statesman view:

"As for Shaheen, her misplaced Twitter “like” of the “Israel lobby” tweet isn’t the whole story. There are other social media posts that might look like red flags to a Labour Party committed to distancing itself from the Corbyn era (and a party anxious about getting drawn into a fight over Gaza). On the day the election was called, she reposted a photo of herself standing with Corbyn, saying she had been “active on Palestine for 20 years and will be so if I make it into gov”. That post has since been deleted, but earlier this week she tweeted that the “number 1 issue on the doorstep and via email so far” in her constituency was Gaza. The list goes on.

You might argue – as plenty are – that none of this is grounds for deselection. But to undecided voters unsure if they can trust Labour, the message this decision sends is that Keir Starmer meant it when he said he would change his party. And the more noise the left makes about it the more likely that message is to be heard. People across the country who have never heard of Faiza Shaheen and don’t care what happens in Chingford and Woodford Green are now aware of the row. The calculation is that the negative sentiment around party infighting will be outweighed, in the minds of key voters, by the sense that Starmer has a zero-tolerance approach."

Who cares what the New Statesman thinks?

A hard working local candidate who has put in the leg work over the last few years building up the Labour vote has been treated like dirt and thrown away for purely factional reasons. If IDS does retain his seat then it is a sad case of FAAFO for Starmer who takes peoples votes for granted.

Labour will win with a decent majority the fate of this seat will not determine the outcome of this election, so people are free to vote their conscience this time.

 

[beorhthelm]

It's highly likely, the place is awash with her posters and she's highly respected in the community. The Labour drop in has little support and is literally knocking on doors on her own - she's trying her best to split the anti Tory vote. The last of the local Tories are elderly racist nut jobs.

talking of splitting the vote, i wonder if this seat might be won on the lowest share?

 

[Hugo Rune]

Out of interest Hugo whats your overall prediction seats wise?

And if the Tories end up with less than a 100 and with the Lib Dem’s snapping at their heels around the 60 mark, will that effectively signal the end of the Tory party as we know it?

I think the Tories will get smashed. All the parties are after their seats. SNP will take a few in Scotchland, the Lib-Dems will do a lot of damage in the South West and Home Counties. And then reform will take a lot of their votes in the Red Wall constituencies.

The polls aren’t narrowing like they normally do, Rishi has a weekly scandal up his sleeve to make sure floating voters are put off at every moment.

I think the Lib-Dems and the Tories will have about 50 seats each. I can’t see how the Tories can have many more. Declaring war on young people was an absurdly stupid thing for the Tories to do. The power of social media is going to get a huge ‘young voter’ turn out which is going to shock a lot of people.

 

[pb21]

Rishi has a weekly scandal up his sleeve

He has been kept under strict lock and key protocols recently though. Scandals, feck-ups and general omnishambles have subsided in recent days.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Who cares what the New Statesman thinks?

A hard working local candidate who has put in the leg work over the last few years building up the Labour vote has been treated like dirt and thrown away for purely factional reasons. If IDS does retain his seat then it is a sad case of FAAFO for Starmer who takes peoples votes for granted.

Labour will win with a decent majority the fate of this seat will not determine the outcome of this election, so people are free to vote their conscience this time.

Since you ask, I care little about what the New Statesman thinks about this, but I care more than I do about what you think about it .

I am sick to death of seeing Labour mocked and ridiculed, as they have been, over many years, because of stupid comments and behaviours made by some of its people, going all the way back to Bernie Grant gloating over the police getting a 'good kicking', Ken Livingstone making supercilious comments about the 'links' between Hitler and Zionism, and up to Corbyn's appalling handling of anti-Semitism, repeatedly refusing to condemn it by name, then doing so and then recanting almost immediately, resulting in his expulsion. Not a moment too soon. I couldn't give a stuff about his good causes and hard work as a constituency MP.

I listened to Rob Rinder on Nihal today, and was struck by his comments that although he has never been a victim of antisemitism himself, he is increasingly feeling that the UK may not be the safe haven he had always imagined it to be. Of course there are anti-Semites and racists in UK society. But there has always been the idea that the main political parties, especially Labour, oppose it. Yes, we know that Reform and other clowns have given racists a sense of entitlement. But the relentless and partial hammering of Israel and 'Zionism' by people on the left who never ever criticize the 'other side' in the same way has made some Jews feel like maybe the UK is no longer safe. It is a thing. And when Labour people repeat the tropes it is shameful. We are supposed to be the good guys.

So I have no sympathy for a labour candidate who 'likes' anti-Semitic tropes on Twitter. You call that a 'factional' issue. Crikey. And defend her on the grounds of the amount of hard work she does? Double crikey.

You will recall that Azhar Ali, a labour candidate in the Rochdale by-election was dumped by Starmer for stating at a meeting that Israel allowed the 7 October offensive to go ahead, in order to "green light" an invasion of Gaza, with the Labour party then getting stitched up when a leaked recording was made public by the Daily Mail when it was too late for Labour to offer a new candidate. Labour is not going to sit around when this sort of gormless tomfoolery is taking place. It cannot afford to any more, especially in a run up to an election. Anyone who has been shown to be 'a bit' anti-Semitic is likely to find themselves 'a bit' slung out of the party. Good. There are no 'buts'.

 

[oldboyroy]

The Telegraph talks of 79 seats, even a literally party ending 21 seats (to be replaced by a racist/Putin loving Reform).

Hard to see 100 seats. If that happens, perhaps due to shy Tories voting and nonchalance amongst non-Tories not voting.

As I alluded to on another thread, they, the tories will get their usual always voters and can't see them being below 100. They have a way of getting their support to the polling stations by whatever means possible especially the elderly generation. Reckon they'll lose but not as big a loss as the polls suggest. I say reckon they'll lose but I bloody hope they do. Its not a foregone conclusion yet, sadly.

 

[Machiavelli]

On that graph if you take Jan 20 to Nov 21, the 44% election high had fallen by 4%.

After that, do you think other things were at play too? R5/LB phone ins and media coverage covered what I'd call a pincer movement on governments from both:
a) Mass anger in general about masks, lockdowns, no overseas travel, the cost of furlough, liberties infringed. Pandemic fatigue; and
b) Mass anger that we should locking down far more and for longer, schools closed for much longer, emergency workers excused from work if they were concerned at all.

NSC covid threads exemplified that, it was nasty.

Subsequently governments everywhere paid the price, they were all booted out including Merkel's party, Trump and Macron's party. Just one to go.

I'm actually just repeating what Prof Sir John Curtice said. Drop 1 is more protracted than Drop 2 which lasted for the lifetime of a lettuce. With Drop 1 which I'd periodise to Jun21-Jan22, there was the drip-drip effect of Partygate info coming out. Having said that PSJC talked about two 6% point drops, and you can see that being in a tighter timescale from Sep21-Jan22, see:

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I'm waiting for the Tory attack on Labour this week and next as they reveal themselves as the real nasty party. They will do everything including blatant lies to scare shy Tories into going to the polling station on 4th July.

 

[nicko31]

Oh dear...

Tories are a ‘shower of shit’, says Conservative candidate James Cracknell

Former Olympian standing in Colchester adds: ‘If one of my teammates got caught for cheating they’d be dead to me’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Oh dear...

Tories are a ‘shower of shit’, says Conservative candidate James Cracknell

Former Olympian standing in Colchester adds: ‘If one of my teammates got caught for cheating they’d be dead to me’

www.theguardian.com

Good to see the Tories carefully vetting their candidates:

UK could rejoin EU in a generation, says James Cracknell

Former Olympic rower, who is Tory candidate for Colchester, believes country could re-enter bloc when young Remainers are older

www.telegraph.co.uk