[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The targeting of Rayner by everyone bar Farage is a pattern on these debates. All going for the same marginal voters leaving the Tories.

Nothing personal against her, but in both debates she appears overwhelmed by it all. Whilst the ultra full of themselves patriarchy of Quinn and Farage are able to dominate at will. Definitely hopeless time keeping eg Denyer barely gets a word in.

Yes, Rayner has been angered by the interruption and gainsaying ("we have said we won't raise taxes"...."Labour will raise taxes" WTF?) and lost her thread. Not sure the bullying and hectoring will have much traction with the electorate, though. Mordor looks like she's the one seething at 14 years of governmental mismanagement. A very strange look.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I reckon loads are saying they will vote reform for the lols and won't actually vote for them

The sort of rum coves doing R5 voxpops and backing Reform sound like they aren't sure what an election even is.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Farmers have had enough

Are they the same farmers who backed Brexit and were then shocked when their EU subsidies disappeared?

 

[Machiavelli]

Is Eric standing?

This might be the post of the year.
But back to Eric, he's finally found someone pedalling his 1970s National Front agenda

 

[Weststander]

Yes, Rayner has been angered by the interruption and gainsaying ("we have said we won't raise taxes"...."Labour will raise taxes" WTF?) and lost her thread. Not sure the bullying and hectoring will have much traction with the electorate, though. Mordor looks like she's the one seething at 14 years of governmental mismanagement. A very strange look.

These debates … very little learnt, I only think they’re significant if someone has a car crash. I’m watching for the entertainment and it’s interesting watching them beg for our votes. Only happens every 5 years.

I’m struck in all of them, my 19 year old ‘Woke’ daughter agrees, by the ultra confidence and dominance of the males. The patriarchy. Not necessary a public school thing, Flynn went to a comp. In the earlier debate, Flynn went for Rayner’s jugular, she didn’t truly reply.

 

[A1X]

YouGov do seem to show Labour support falling relatively steadily though. 10 points in a fortnight, carry on like that and it will be down to the mid 20s! But I don't know what their methodology change was all about.

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I think the corresponding rise in the Lib Dem vote is actually more relevant here and suggests a switch toward tactical voting

 

[Machiavelli]

The targeting of Rayner by everyone bar Farage is a pattern on these debates. All going for the same marginal voters leaving the Tories.

Nothing personal against her, but in both debates she appears overwhelmed by it all. Whilst the ultra full of themselves patriarchy of Quinn and Farage are able to dominate at will. Definitely hopeless time keeping eg Denyer barely gets a word in.

Etchingham is a disgrace.
Mordaunt has been primed to target Rayner, and has talked over her constantly, without the chair intervening. Rayner has been instructed not to rise to the bait and to appear dignified; it doesn't really suit her, but all in keeping with the Ming vase strategy.

 

[A1X]

Etchingham is a disgrace.
Mordaunt has been primed to target Rayner, and has talked over her constantly, without the chair intervening. Rayner has been instructed not to rise to the bait and to appear dignified; it doesn't really suit her, but all in keeping with the Ming vase strategy.

Not watching but Etchingham was rubbish on the head-to-head debate too

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

These debates … very little learnt, I only think they’re significant if someone has a car crash. I’m watching for the entertainment and it’s interesting watching them beg for our votes. Only happens every 5 years.

I’m struck in all of them, my 19 year old ‘Woke’ daughter agrees, by the ultra confidence and dominance of the males. The patriarchy. Not necessary a public school thing, Flynn went to a comp. In the earlier debate, Flynn went for Rayner’s jugular, she didn’t truly reply.

The SNP bloke seems quite cool. Yes, this is a 'man's world'. Maybe this is why Mordor is being so aggressive. As a female colleague said to me a year ago, describing her lot as a young member of staff, 'beware women punching down'.

Farage has absolutely nothing to lose and can make up policy on the hoof without challenge. He's loving it.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Etchingham is a disgrace.
Mordaunt has been primed to target Rayner, and has talked over her constantly, without the chair intervening. Rayner has been instructed not to rise to the bait and to appear dignified; it doesn't really suit her, but all in keeping with the Ming vase strategy.

Nailed it.

I'd like to be a fly on the wall when, later, Rayner discusses how it all went, with trusted colleagues over a glass or two of Prosecco.

"I was itching to give her a dry slap but it would have taken an hour to wash the make up, greasepaint and botox off me 'and"

 

[aolstudios]

Not watching but Etchingham was rubbish on the head-to-head debate too

She is shamefully weak

 

[Eeyore]

They did in 1992.

Could the opinion pollsters actually get it wrong?

The 'Sheffield' moment.

I'm pretty sure the polls in 1992 weren't anywhere this stark though. Normally the gap narrows in the government's favour during a campaign. At the moment, it seems that the Tories will probably want the election tomorrow.

 

[Weststander]

Etchingham is a disgrace.
Mordaunt has been primed to target Rayner, and has talked over her constantly, without the chair intervening. Rayner has been instructed not to rise to the bait and to appear dignified; it doesn't really suit her, but all in keeping with the Ming vase strategy.

Did you watch the first debate with Rayner? Can’t recall the adjudicator, but they allowed Flynn to bully Rayner for the entire debate.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Etchingham absolutely awful once again. Mordaumt has got away with murder. Rayner was bad tonight, and her question to Mordaunt was pathetic.

Daisy Cooper again impressed for the Lib Dems, noticeably positive by contrast with the women from the two main parties. Stephen Flynn was again excellent, his retort to Farage's call for more Referenda was brilliant and I think he gets his second MOTM in a row. Why is he not SNP leader?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Are they the same farmers who backed Brexit and were then shocked when their EU subsidies disappeared?

Farmers voted the same way as the public 52% leave 48% remain with the NFU advising to vote remain.

 

[clapham_gull]

I loving the weirdness of the polls this election.

As Reform pick up in the polls against the Tories even if Labour drop a few points, they potentially increase their majority.

Our system is f##### right ?

 

[clapham_gull]

Etchingham absolutely awful once again.

It never recovered when it lost it's shop, but to be fair that bistro in the station waiting room that serves pizzas on the weekend is cracking.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

The 'Sheffield' moment.

I'm pretty sure the polls in 1992 weren't anywhere this stark though. Normally the gap narrows in the government's favour during a campaign. At the moment, it seems that the Tories will probably want the election tomorrow.

They did in 1992.

Could the opinion pollsters actually get it wrong?

They would have to get it wrong by a margin they have never got it wrong before at this stage.

But polls aren't static, they change as people change their minds.

1992 saw polls narrowing during the campaign and over the 18 months prior, that’s not happened at all this time around

Just the classic narrowing that always happens as the election gets closer and closer. People are actually thinking now about the realities of who they want to vote for, rather than just backing the opposition with general anger at the government

On the narrowing of the polls, this graph is interesting. It compares Labour's lead over the Tories in 1997 with Labour's lead over the Tories in 2024. Its about a week old, with the little uptick a result of D-day-gate but we can see that Labour's lead over the Tories has held firm at 20 points, now 20 days out. And we know what happened in 1997.

 

[wellquickwoody]

I call Bull Shit to that, how can an effective opposition operate when the Govening party are elected with a ‘landslide’ victory wiping out even the ‘Redwall’ constituencies giving the winning party the ability to pass whatever bills they want backed by a far right wing media blowing smoke up their arseholes leaving the opposition parties effectively silenced, unable to have any input in the legislation process ?

I’m going to assume you are young(ish), under 35 perhaps? The vast majority of media are not FAR right wing, just like the vast majority of Tories are not scum, or even the likes of Rees Mogg and Redwood are not actually Nazis.

The vast majority of what gets labelled as ’far right’ these days, was in fact perfectly normal 20 or 30 years ago. If you actually truly believe that John Major (centerist right), Margxxet Thaxxcher (right) or David Cameron (centerist right) were actually evil, nasty fascists then you only show your own political naivety.

 

[abc]

Are they the same farmers who backed Brexit and were then shocked when their EU subsidies disappeared?

Bit of a myth which came from one (not conducted in a way to be statistically relevant) poll on farmers weekly. But the average age of farmers then was high and they may well have followed the voting profle of the country as a whole. Younger farmers were certainly anti brexit. Not so much because of the removal of subsidies (many, inc the nfu, campaigned for this) but the blatant madness of giving up free access to the biggest trade bloc in the world!