[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[abc]

What i find extraordinary is that the tories and reform polling combined puts them neck and neck with labour. Not so long ok reform/ukip didn’t exist and i guess that 99% of reform votes would go to tories if that was the case now.
Not only should labour be way ahead of the combined far right but despite the consensus on here about the failures of the last 10 years, the attraction to right wing politics remains strong in the country.
Also, anyone who votes Tory or Reform must know that this means Farage as their next leader.

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

What i find extraordinary is that the tories and reform polling combined puts them neck and neck with labour. Not so long ok reform/ukip didn’t exist and i guess that 99% of reform votes would go to tories if that was the case now.
Not only should labour be way ahead of the combined far right but despite the consensus on here about the failures of the last 10 years, the attraction to right wing politics remains strong in the country.
Also, anyone who votes Tory or Reform must know that this means Farage as their next leader.

The attraction to right wing politics is apparent in Europe too, with France, Germany, Austria and Belgium all heading in that direction. All a bit worrying.

 

[Lenny Rider]

Are a number of these people in these polls actually almost ashamed to say they are voting Tory so give another answer but actually when they get in the polling booth they will revert to type?

The Pollsters for Trump vs Clinton got totally blindsided, I was in the US in 2016, CNN were virtually having a Coronation for Hilary before we went to bed, come breakfast time it was completely different story.

Clearly Labour will win, but by these huge margins predicted?

 

[Seagull27]

What i find extraordinary is that the tories and reform polling combined puts them neck and neck with labour. Not so long ok reform/ukip didn’t exist and i guess that 99% of reform votes would go to tories if that was the case now.

I don't agree - I think a significant portion of Reform votes will be working class people who traditionally vote Labour, but are pro-brexit and anti immigration. Having voted Tory in 2019 for these reasons plus Corbyn, they are now voting Reform.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Are a number of these people in these polls actually almost ashamed to say they are voting Tory so give another answer but actually when they get in the polling booth they will revert to type?

The Pollsters for Trump vs Clinton got totally blindsided, I was in the US in 2016, CNN were virtually having a Coronation for Hilary before we went to bed, come breakfast time it was completely different story.

Clearly Labour will win, but by these huge margins predicted?

They are going to get annihilated with Ed Davey sitting across from Kier Starmer in parliament with the 30 or so Tories left sitting at the back next to the Greens, Reform and SNP.

 

[Gwylan]

Are a number of these people in these polls actually almost ashamed to say they are voting Tory so give another answer but actually when they get in the polling booth they will revert to type?

The Pollsters for Trump vs Clinton got totally blindsided, I was in the US in 2016, CNN were virtually having a Coronation for Hilary before we went to bed, come breakfast time it was completely different story.

Clearly Labour will win, but by these huge margins predicted?

The polling companies say that they have adjusted their methodologies to account for 'shy Tories'; whether they're accounting for 'shy Reform voters' remains to be seen.

BTW, the pollsters for Trump v Clinton didn't get wrong: virtually all of them said that Clinton would win the popular vote by between 3 to 5%. That, of course, meant nothing to the actual result. However, that does have relevance to the UK: it's perfectly possible for the vote share to be something like Lab 40% Cons 22% Reform 16% LDs 12% Others 10% and see Labour win about 500 seats

 

[Lenny Rider]

BTW, the pollsters for Trump v Clinton didn't get wrong: virtually all of them said that Clinton would win the popular vote by between 3 to 5%.

CNN, Whoopi Goldberg and everyone at Hilary’s victory party did unfortunately

I wonder what the US would like today if Clinton had sent Trump packing that night?

 

[oldboyroy]

I hazard a guess that reform are taking more votes off Labour and can see their lead cut significantly and they will scrape home

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

What i find extraordinary is that the tories and reform polling combined puts them neck and neck with labour. Not so long ok reform/ukip didn’t exist and i guess that 99% of reform votes would go to tories if that was the case now.
Not only should labour be way ahead of the combined far right but despite the consensus on here about the failures of the last 10 years, the attraction to right wing politics remains strong in the country.
Also, anyone who votes Tory or Reform must know that this means Farage as their next leader.

Both left and right have a base, there must be a good 30% of people on each side who never change their vote regardless of the state of the country, the state of the parties, the leaders, whatever. Of course when your 'side' is completely shit many of those people will not bother voting, and some of them will switch between parties on their side of the divide - Tory to Reform, Labour to Green or SNP - but we should never be so naive as to expect large numbers of lifelong Tories flipping to Labour, nor vice versa, just not in the DNA.

To add to that, every now and again there comes along a leader so charismatic that he can get people voting in ways they never thought they would, Blair, Boris and yes, Farage. All else being equal, would we be surprised if the Conservatives would have won this election if it was a Johnson - Corbyn repeat? Farage will be getting a lot of those Redwall Johnson supporters.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I hazard a guess that reform are taking more votes off Labour and can see their lead cut significantly and they will scrape home

Most of those type of voters left Labour in 2019 and handed the redwall seats to the Conservatives. They will be heading to Reform in their droves, which should surely result in Labour reclaiming them all

 

[ROSM]

Historically even when awful, the tories have never got far less than 30% in an election. Add ukip, bnp etc to that and right/far right usually get a minimum of c32%

Combining the poll of polls for tories and reform gives c35% so marginally up on previous years but not by the margins seen in other western countries (plus india) at the moment.

Labours biggest area of voters movement is to lib dems who are on average up from 9% to c12%.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

and i guess that 99% of reform votes would go to tories if that was the case now.

I'd say that in certain parts of Northern England Reform would be taking votes from Labour.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

What i find extraordinary is that the tories and reform polling combined puts them neck and neck with labour. Not so long ok reform/ukip didn’t exist and i guess that 99% of reform votes would go to tories if that was the case now.
Not only should labour be way ahead of the combined far right but despite the consensus on here about the failures of the last 10 years, the attraction to right wing politics remains strong in the country.
Also, anyone who votes Tory or Reform must know that this means Farage as their next leader.

After listening to the Grimsby voxpops on R5 yesterday, it is clear that many who once voted Labour are now backing Reform.

This is not a direct shift since many of them went for Johnson last time.

There is a rum lot out there, mostly among the 'lower' social classes, who started out Labour (because they support the 'working man'), then drifted away as labour increasingly identified as supportive of (initially) women's rights (tsk), racial equality (pah!) then gay rights (eugh!). They started bleating about how the working class had been betrayed. Then of course you get a nice well spoken former minor public schoolboy as PM (Blair), who is clearly a bit of a wimp, and that's it. Game over. Having been Fully Betrayed, they jumped ship and started voting Tory.

From there it is easy to drift into the fag-stained embraced of Farage. Even middle aged men read the internet and, guess what, there is all sorts of Real Truth out there if you look. Soon your timeline is peppered with Bot Feed, and your echo chamber is relentlessly telling you that your country has been stolen by Trained Marxists and the like. You have spent ten, twenty years telling your mates the country has gone to the dogs. We are Swamped with Muslim terrorists, do-as-you-likies, and so on.

I am sadly confident that plenty who have bothered to read what I have written have been nodding in agreement - with the narrative and how true it is that 'we' have been betrayed.

'We' haven't. 'We' have simply been lied to by carpetbaggers who have made million out of our credulity, fear and prejudices.

 

[CheeseRolls]

The targeting of Rayner by everyone bar Farage is a pattern on these debates. All going for the same marginal voters leaving the Tories.

Nothing personal against her, but in both debates she appears overwhelmed by it all. Whilst the ultra full of themselves patriarchy of Quinn and Farage are able to dominate at will. Definitely hopeless time keeping eg Denyer barely gets a word in.

I thought just about everyone bar Mordaunt came across well. She had an opportunity to really spear Rayner with one question and absolutely blew it. Asking Rayner to deny that labour would raise Capital Gains Tax, which Mordaunt said would hit hard working families when they sold their houses. It was just lame.

She also visibly gulped when the government's schools record was attacked, specifically on their failure to address crumbling school buildings. Defending this governments record is tough, but Mel Stride for one has looked a lot more competent and capable than Pompey Penny.

 

[Eeyore]

Looks like the Express are having a meltdown.

 

[Machiavelli]

Did you watch the first debate with Rayner? Can’t recall the adjudicator, but they allowed Flynn to bully Rayner for the entire debate.

I did. Mishal Husain was chairing who I have a soft spot for. I'd say that she erred on the side of non-intervention but it wasn't as stark as with Etchingham last night who I've no time for after the Sunak-Starmer head-to-head, and did nothing to salvage things. Beth Rigby has won clearly so far, but very much aided by the format (the worst of which was the head-to-head by some considerable distance).

 

[CheeseRolls]

I'd say that in certain parts of Northern England Reform would be taking votes from Labour.

Channel 4 news last night had a vox pop from Rugby. One gent in his sixties sporting an Italian track suit top told them he supported "Faridge" as it was important we stuck to being English (I paraphrase). These are strange times.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Are a number of these people in these polls actually almost ashamed to say they are voting Tory so give another answer but actually when they get in the polling booth they will revert to type?

The Pollsters for Trump vs Clinton got totally blindsided, I was in the US in 2016, CNN were virtually having a Coronation for Hilary before we went to bed, come breakfast time it was completely different story.

Clearly Labour will win, but by these huge margins predicted?

Shy Tories? Yes, I expect so. Consider NSC. There used to be a gaggle of Brexit gloaters on here and most of them have now disappeared, But they will all be trotting out on July 4 to put their X by the Tory name on the ballot. For sure.

 

[Eeyore]

I’m going to assume you are young(ish), under 35 perhaps? The vast majority of media are not FAR right wing, just like the vast majority of Tories are not scum, or even the likes of Rees Mogg and Redwood are not actually Nazis.

The vast majority of what gets labelled as ’far right’ these days, was in fact perfectly normal 20 or 30 years ago. If you actually truly believe that John Major (centerist right), Margxxet Thaxxcher (right) or David Cameron (centerist right) were actually evil, nasty fascists then you only show your own political naivety.

I didn't have an issue with Cameron. I liked Major. Thatcher had sat at Keith Joseph's feet too long and I think she had become naive to the problems of working class folk. The North will never forgive her.

 

[Machiavelli]

The polling companies say that they have adjusted their methodologies to account for 'shy Tories'; whether they're accounting for 'shy Reform voters' remains to be seen.

BTW, the pollsters for Trump v Clinton didn't get wrong: virtually all of them said that Clinton would win the popular vote by between 3 to 5%. That, of course, meant nothing to the actual result. However, that does have relevance to the UK: it's perfectly possible for the vote share to be something like Lab 40% Cons 22% Reform 16% LDs 12% Others 10% and see Labour win about 500 seats

Interesting. I'd offer that while 'shy Tories' have been a prominent feature for decades, the notion of a 'shy Reform' voter is oxymoronic: they only operate with loudhailers