[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Eeyore]

Sir Humphrey couldn't have put it more succinctly.

I've just read that in his voice

 

[A1X]

 

[Weststander]

Going by Betfair latest:

Tory 100 seats (165 in 1997)
SNP low 20’s (43 pre this GE)

 

[lawros left foot]

Just over a week gone, and what little Tory strategy there is appears to be, it’s pretty shit now but don’t vote Labour cos we don’t think they can clear up the mess we’ve made.


Dear God, July the 4th can’t come soon enough.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Be quite funny if lib dems became the official opposition.

Actually not quite funny it would be f***ing hilarious and I'd be laughing for weeks.

 

[lawros left foot]

Wouldn’t it be more economic to just open up the local authority run/tendered out, waste and recycling facilities to accept this waste rather than their foolishly construed money making schemes conjured up by these national and local politicians which when introduced just exasperated an already not insignificant problem carried out by unscrupulous waste clearance cowboys/businesses and plenty of residential populace who were/are too lazy and have no respect for their country, environment or fellow citizens and always would take the easy option and fly tip their crap for others to deal with. Charging for waste disposal was always going to increase these practices and East Sussex county council who operate their tips or franchises hardly improved this problem following last years ruling by Parliament whereby tips were instructed to receive and not charge for waste, restricting home owners etc to two small bags of decorating/building waste per week and any further bags charged at £6.00 each. A little more common sense, planning and education shown by the authorities and this disgusting practice would never have escalated to the current level of problem.
In my humble opinion like !

Well that’s just silly!

How is anyone going to make any money if waste disposal is run for the benefit of the public and environment and not to yield maximum profit?

You’ll be telling me next there shouldn’t be sewage in our rivers.

 

[nwgull]

Be quite funny if lib dems became the official opposition.

Actually not quite funny it would be f***ing hilarious and I'd be laughing for weeks.

Early days, but they seem to be running quite a good campaign as so far as getting themselves noticed in amongst the noise of the two main parties. Not much of an effect on national polling numbers yet so far, but their support seems to be more concentrated this time. Would be ironic if they did get similar number of seats as 2010 with half the votes.

 

[Eeyore]

I think Labour are on course for a huge majority. I do think it's important for other voices in parliament too and I think having a Green MP is good for Brighton.

I live in Kemptown and was planning on spoiling my ballot paper. But, as I did once before, if there is a Labour voter in Pavilion who wants to swap their vote I'd be willing to vote Labour in Kemptown for them to vote Green in Pavilion. Either way, there will be no Tories elected.

This is a totally legal practice and has existed for centuries (in case anyone is wondering) between consenting folk with no coercion.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I know that this election's four word idiot slogan has been used hundreds of times already this week, but it's almost as if the far right and far left 'don't have a plan'

 

[jcdenton08]

Whilst I hope this is the case, I have zero affinity with this Tory cabal as I’ve made perfectly clear, it’s worth again noting how the Tories consistently outperform voting intention polls. Discussed here in this blog piece and numerous other places;

In Polls We Do Not Trust: The British Polling Experience

On 18th April 2017 Theresa May announced a snap general election to take place on 8th June. The announcement came as a surprise and was widely believed to be motivated by the large lead in the polls (approximately twenty points) that Ms May holds over her main rival, Labour Party leader Jeremy...

blog.politics.ox.ac.uk

I don’t have exact figures to hand as I’m not Sir John Curtice, but it’s always a safe bet things are never quite as bad for the Tories when it comes to the pollsters as it seems.

Oh, they’re going to lose - and lose BIG - but they always outperform the polls even when deeply unpopular. The blog above talks about 2015 and 1992 in particular and is an interesting read.

 

[ROSM]

Whilst I hope this is the case, I have zero affinity with this Tory cabal as I’ve made perfectly clear, it’s worth again noting how the Tories consistently outperform voting intention polls. Discussed here in this blog piece and numerous other places;

In Polls We Do Not Trust: The British Polling Experience

On 18th April 2017 Theresa May announced a snap general election to take place on 8th June. The announcement came as a surprise and was widely believed to be motivated by the large lead in the polls (approximately twenty points) that Ms May holds over her main rival, Labour Party leader Jeremy...

blog.politics.ox.ac.uk

I don’t have exact figures to hand as I’m not Sir John Curtice, but it’s always a safe bet things are never quite as bad for the Tories when it comes to the pollsters as it seems.

Oh, they’re going to lose - and lose BIG - but they always outperform the polls even when deeply unpopular. The blog above talks about 2015 and 1992 in particular and is an interesting read.

Shy tories has been a phenomenon since 1992 (there were examples in 83 and 87 but tories were on course to win anyway).

But 1992 and to a degree 2015 saw late switchers from labour to tory (and in 2015, lib dem and green to tory) between opinion poll and exit poll/reality. As the blog above shows there was also an incorrect level of weighting in the 2015 poll and overallocated labour voters. In 2010 there was an over allocation of lib dems based on perceived cleggmania)

There is a similar possibility this time but they need to be at less than a 12 point gap (which is where a labour majority becomes possible due to historic spread of votes) for it to have an effect on the 'winner' as it were

 

[WATFORD zero]

Election diary: Tory campaign going exactly as planned, say Tories​

It’s just over a week since Rishi Sunak got soaked in the rain as he called the general election. Since then he has forgotten that Wales didn’t qualify for the Euros, paid a visit to Belfast’s Titanic quarter and been photographed under an exit sign. Richard Holden, the Tory party chair AKA Baldrick impersonator, has insisted that the campaign has been going exactly as planned.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...1&cvid=f9222a67a4ed4140a65910de93bbaf67&ei=13

 

[jcdenton08]

The “Comical Ali” approach to the truth.

 

[Sergei's Celebration]

If that actually happens where do they sit in the commons. Do they all squeeze onto the govt benches? They'd be squashed in like sardines, looking at half empty benches the other side.

Minor issue I know but these admin type things bother me

 

[nwgull]

Whilst I hope this is the case, I have zero affinity with this Tory cabal as I’ve made perfectly clear, it’s worth again noting how the Tories consistently outperform voting intention polls. Discussed here in this blog piece and numerous other places;

In Polls We Do Not Trust: The British Polling Experience

On 18th April 2017 Theresa May announced a snap general election to take place on 8th June. The announcement came as a surprise and was widely believed to be motivated by the large lead in the polls (approximately twenty points) that Ms May holds over her main rival, Labour Party leader Jeremy...

blog.politics.ox.ac.uk

I don’t have exact figures to hand as I’m not Sir John Curtice, but it’s always a safe bet things are never quite as bad for the Tories when it comes to the pollsters as it seems.

Oh, they’re going to lose - and lose BIG - but they always outperform the polls even when deeply unpopular. The blog above talks about 2015 and 1992 in particular and is an interesting read.

I disagree. Pollsters continuously adapt their analysis of raw data to improve accuracy account for stuff like shy-Tory effect. That article you linked to is 7 years old, so is a bit out-of-date and doesn’t include the most recent U.K. GEs - 2017 and 2019 - where Tory percentage was very accurate in last week of polling:

In 2017, the average percentage for Tories in the week running up was almost spot on; and in this case he Labour vote was underestimated by about 5%

In 2019 the average for both was accurate to within 1%.

 

[jcdenton08]

I disagree. Pollsters continuously adapt their analysis of raw data to improve accuracy account for stuff like shy-Tory effect. That article you linked to is 7 years old, so is a bit out-of-date and doesn’t include the most recent U.K. GEs - 2017 and 2019 - where Tory percentage was very accurate in last week of polling:

In 2017, the average percentage for Tories in the week running up was almost spot on; and in this case he Labour vote was underestimated by about 5%

In 2019 the average for both was accurate to within 1%.

But in both of those cases, the margins hugely narrowed as we got closer to the election, which always happens when the Tories are polling poorly. There will be a difference in the numbers a week before the election compared to now, and that’s not even allowing for “shy Tories” which, in my opinion, will play a part in this election regardless of recent precedence.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Fly tipping absolutely boils my piss, and I agree punishment should be significant, but the issue is catching/finding the ****s to dish out the punishment. Have they suggested how this will work?

Same way 'Rwanda' will stop the boats.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Disappointing that the Lib Dems are still in second place when they are the best party to challenge a massive Labour majority. If 1996 is anything to go by, the Tories will be an ineffective opposition for up to a decade.

Unfortunately, the hard left can’t understand pragmatism. They need the villains (Tories) to be strong or else their Marxist messages will blow away in the wind. The SNP is only popular when juxtaposed next to a right wing and profoundly incompetent UK Tory government. If the UK has a reasonable government, the SNP’s story is lost. The same goes for the messages from the hard left and they know it.

At the point where the total annihilation of the Tory Party is on the agenda, this witless clown is doing everything he can to reduce the Labour majority to ensure that the Tory opposition is a strong as possible by begging his zombie followers to waste their votes on Greens or Independents rather than on voting out Tories.



Sir Keir says ‘Country above Party’ because the Tories have been putting their party priorities above the interests of the country for years with the lowlight being the disastrous Brexit referendum.

But Jones’ priorities are bad too:

1. Marxism (ideology)
2. Having a hard Left Labour
3. International Politics
4. Great Britain

It’s time for Jones to just be honest and ask is putrid swarm to vote Tory. Without a strong enemy, he and his ilk become irrelevant.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Wouldn’t it be more economic to just open up the local authority run/tendered out, waste and recycling facilities to accept this waste rather than their foolishly construed money making schemes conjured up by these national and local politicians which when introduced just exasperated an already not insignificant problem carried out by unscrupulous waste clearance cowboys/businesses and plenty of residential populace who were/are too lazy and have no respect for their country, environment or fellow citizens and always would take the easy option and fly tip their crap for others to deal with. Charging for waste disposal was always going to increase these practices and East Sussex county council who operate their tips or franchises hardly improved this problem following last years ruling by Parliament whereby tips were instructed to receive and not charge for waste, restricting home owners etc to two small bags of decorating/building waste per week and any further bags charged at £6.00 each. A little more common sense, planning and education shown by the authorities and this disgusting practice would never have escalated to the current level of problem.
In my humble opinion like !

Round here we suddenly found that a bit of concrete post from a replaced garden fence, 'hardcore' can't be freely accepted at he local council 'dump' and has to be paid for. We also still have a booking system in operation that was introduced during Covid. Guess what? Fly tipping is on the increase, with farmers erecting posts to stop folk doing side of the road ejections. The whole thing is completely stupid and Sunk's lates wheeze will have zero impact. I caught something on the radio this morning about some new council bribe from Sunk. Now, where is that old Private Eye cartoon from the end of the Major era - 'we even cocked up the bribe'?

 

[jcdenton08]

Fly tipping, arresting disorderly unhoused people, it’s all just waffle meant to appeal to the elderly that “we’re taking back the streets”. It’s as old as the hills.

But the government has systematically underfunded the police for decades. They’re increasing the workload of already stretched forces.

This is a police service who don’t investigate car/bike/property thefts/assaults and largely deem them civil issues unless someone is seriously hurt or killed.

And now they’re suddenly expected to process drunk unhoused people and investigate fly tipping?

Loony tunes.