[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Eeyore]

I think Labour can win in Clacton now. I think they could attract up to a third of voters from the Tories, if Reform do the same, Labour win.

Excepting that I suspect many Labour voters may go Reform. That's why he's gone in there.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Obviously the numbers are complete shite for reform

Hilarious

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Excepting that I suspect many Labour voters may go Reform. That's why he's gone in there.

Hard to predict. I think some current would-be Labour voters will certainly switch to Farage but equally, some latent Labour supporters and some who’d planned not to vote will now vote against Farage. These demographics might well cancel each other out. The big question for me is what happens to the Tory vote. How many will remain loyal and how many will go to Farage? Given that they had a UKIP MP, it’s not a stretch to see it going to Reform.

I’m actually quite pleased that Farage has decided to stand. I was finding the campaign a bit dull so far and I think he’ll make it more interesting, and might bring out Labour's hidden radical edge a bit more.

 

[Stato]

How do you just announce that you're the leader of a political party? I know that the rules for the vanity projects of blowhard attention seekers may be different, but I would have presumed that to become a leader of a proper political party you would need to face some kind of election of the members, rather than just getting your friend to let you do it.

Can any of us announce that we're now leader of Reform? If so, I now baggsy Farage's job and my first decision as leader is for us to close the party political wing, change our name to 'The Village Green Preservation Society' and adopt a new single issue to replace Brexit: Bring back 'It Ain't 'Alf Hot Mum'.

All together:

"Preserving the old ways from being abused
Protecting the new ways for me and for you
What more can we do?"

 

[kevo]

Throws the cat among the pigeons this. It should mean very bad news for the Tories, but I think some Labour voters in red wall seats will now go Reform. It will be interesting to see the polls in a few days' time to see how it's affected things. I do think Farage will win in Clacton, unfortunately, giving the frog-faced fascist a seat in parliament.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

How do you just announce that you're the leader of a political party? I know that the rules for the vanity projects of blowhard attention seekers may be different, but I would have presumed that to become a leader of a proper political party you would need to face some kind of election of the members, rather than just getting your friend to let you do it.

Do you seriously think Reform members wouldn’t elect Farage by a huge majority? Didn’t he found the party? Tice has obviously begged him to take over. It will boost their vote no end. Probably good news for Labour and LibDems in that it will split the Tory vote yet further. In Eastbourne for instance, the Lib Dems are not far behind the Tories. If only 3 or 4,000 Tories go for Reform it will hand the seat to the LibDems.

 

[Bob!]

New super poll shows Tories heading for election wipeout - with Lib Dems becoming second biggest party​

A new poll has indicated that the Tories are on the cusp of suffering the biggest general election disaster in their history. Redfield and Wilton’s survey of 10,000 voters published today (3 June) has the Conservatives at just 20 per cent, 26 points behind Labour. In a crushing blow for the Tories, Electoral Calculus predicts they would win a mere 24 seats if the poll was replicated in an election. The Lib Dems would be the second party on 51 seats and Labour would have a majority of 426 with more than 500 seats.

This follows the MRP poll over the weekend suggesting the Tories will win only 66 seats.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...4-poll-projection-seats-wipeout-b2555671.html

....and this is before Farage splits the Tory vote even more!

 

[Thunder Bolt]

How do you just announce that you're the leader of a political party? I know that the rules for the vanity projects of blowhard attention seekers may be different, but I would have presumed that to become a leader of a proper political party you would need to face some kind of election of the members, rather than just getting your friend to let you do it.

Reform hasn’t got any members, only donors. It’s a business, not a political party.

 

[Eeyore]

Hard to predict. I think some current would-be Labour voters will certainly switch to Farage but equally, some latent Labour supporters and some who’d planned not to vote will now vote against Farage. These demographics might well cancel each other out. The big question for me is what happens to the Tory vote. How many will remain loyal and how many will go to Farage? Given that they had a UKIP MP, it’s not a stretch to see it going to Reform.

I’m actually quite pleased that Farage has decided to stand. I was finding the campaign a bit dull so far and I think he’ll make it more interesting, and might bring out Labour's hidden radical edge a bit more.

As much as I don't admire his politics, I admire his strategy

He said that a Labour government would be slightly worse than the Tories- in other words not a lot changes (don't vote Tory). He doesn't want to put people off Labour for now. That comes later.

He said Labour has already won the election ( a vote switch will make little difference)

He parachutes into Clacton (huge BREXIT area, massive Tory majority, 'right wing' Labour voters)

He wants Labour to wipe out the Tories in the election and sets up Reform as an opposition outwith parliament on the back of a waiting vote. In the meantime they cruise in the yearly council elections.

That's his theory anyway. First indications on July 5th.

 

[Stato]

Do you seriously think Reform members wouldn’t elect Farage by a huge majority? Didn’t he found the party? Tice has obviously begged him to take over. It will boost their vote no end. Probably good news for Labour and LibDems in that it will split the Tory vote yet further. In Eastbourne for instance, the Lib Dems are not far behind the Tories. If only 3 or 4,000 Tories go for Reform it will hand the seat to the LibDems.

Whether or not he would have won a vote they didn't have is not really democracy though is it?

And the Lib Dems don't look like they need their help to take Eastbourne: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Eastbourne

 

[A1X]

New super poll shows Tories heading for election wipeout - with Lib Dems becoming second biggest party​

A new poll has indicated that the Tories are on the cusp of suffering the biggest general election disaster in their history. Redfield and Wilton’s survey of 10,000 voters published today (3 June) has the Conservatives at just 20 per cent, 26 points behind Labour. In a crushing blow for the Tories, Electoral Calculus predicts they would win a mere 24 seats if the poll was replicated in an election. The Lib Dems would be the second party on 51 seats and Labour would have a majority of 426 with more than 500 seats.

This follows the MRP poll over the weekend suggesting the Tories will win only 66 seats.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...4-poll-projection-seats-wipeout-b2555671.html

I would still be staggered to see it, but if the Tories aren't even in 2nd place then it will be a huge realignment of our politics. All those TV programmes which have (usually) 1x Labour and 1x Tory would have to go 1x Labour and 1x Lib Dem, the Tories would not longer be guaranteed spots on shows like Question Time under the BBC's rules for panel selection. The new Tory leader would have 2 questions at PMQs as opposed to 6 for Ed Davey. It would be a massive paradigm shift and I just don't think we appreciate how weird it would actually be.

 

[Stato]

Reform hasn’t got any members, only donors. It’s a business, not a political party.

Ah, Thanks. That explains more than just the answer to my question.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

With tactical voting even Rishi Sunk's seat is under threat.

 

[vegster]

How do you just announce that you're the leader of a political party? I know that the rules for the vanity projects of blowhard attention seekers may be different, but I would have presumed that to become a leader of a proper political party you would need to face some kind of election of the members, rather than just getting your friend to let you do it.

Can any of us announce that we're now leader of Reform? If so, I now baggsy Farage's job and my first decision as leader is for us to close the party political wing, change our name to 'The Village Green Preservation Society' and adopt a new single issue to replace Brexit: Bring back 'It Ain't 'Alf Hot Mum'.

All together:

"Preserving the old ways from being abused
Protecting the new ways for me and for you
What more can we do?"

I was going to post a very similar thing regarding the " transfer of power " from Mr Tice to frog face...is it democratic ? If so, who were the candidates ? Has this been overseen by the Reform UK committee ? If there is one ? Looks like just stealing power is an interesting " Reform " .....and, what happens if Tice pulls his money out and starts another political business ?

 

[GJN1]

How do you just announce that you're the leader of a political party? I know that the rules for the vanity projects of blowhard attention seekers may be different, but I would have presumed that to become a leader of a proper political party you would need to face some kind of election of the members, rather than just getting your friend to let you do it.

Can any of us announce that we're now leader of Reform? If so, I now baggsy Farage's job and my first decision as leader is for us to close the party political wing, change our name to 'The Village Green Preservation Society' and adopt a new single issue to replace Brexit: Bring back 'It Ain't 'Alf Hot Mum'.

It's a private company, unlike any other political party. And guess who's the principal shareholder?

 

[vegster]

Throws the cat among the pigeons this. It should mean very bad news for the Tories, but I think some Labour voters in red wall seats will now go Reform. It will be interesting to see the polls in a few days' time to see how it's affected things. I do think Farage will win in Clacton, unfortunately, giving the frog-faced fascist a seat in parliament.

It won't happen, even pre Brexit with lots of dissatisfied voters who misguidededly thought that the EU was the source of all our troubles, he never even got close.He stands no chance of winning now.

 

[medwayseagull reborn]

I would still be staggered to see it, but if the Tories aren't even in 2nd place then it will be a huge realignment of our politics. All those TV programmes which have (usually) 1x Labour and 1x Tory would have to go 1x Labour and 1x Lib Dem, the Tories would not longer be guaranteed spots on shows like Question Time under the BBC's rules for panel selection. The new Tory leader would have 2 questions at PMQs as opposed to 6 for Ed Davey. It would be a massive paradigm shift and I just don't think we appreciate how weird it would actually be.

The new yougov MRP poll for sky suggests Labour will only have a 194 seat majority. This system gives a constiuency by constiuency extrapolation for those nerdish enough.

 

[Bodian]

I would still be staggered to see it, but if the Tories aren't even in 2nd place then it will be a huge realignment of our politics. All those TV programmes which have (usually) 1x Labour and 1x Tory would have to go 1x Labour and 1x Lib Dem, the Tories would not longer be guaranteed spots on shows like Question Time under the BBC's rules for panel selection. The new Tory leader would have 2 questions at PMQs as opposed to 6 for Ed Davey. It would be a massive paradigm shift and I just don't think we appreciate how weird it would actually be.

And Question Time - how will they choose the audience?!

 

[Bodian]

The new yougov MRP poll for sky suggests Labour will only have a 194 seat majority. This system gives a constiuency by constiuency extrapolation for those nerdish enough.

All the light blue are classed as 'Toss Up'. So it won't take many tory voters to switch to Reform for them to turn light red or orange instead.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

It will be interesting to see the next You Gov poll , a possibility of the Tories reduced to 20 or less seats after the GE