[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Weststander]

Agreed. To think that they were ahead in the polls two or so years ago, which is quite something for a sitting government. But the public think it's 14 years where they've got poorer, and public services are on their knees.
The easy thing for me to say would be "that's what they do", but this isn't like 1997 or 1964. Things were in a pretty good situation in both those years, now the decline is palpable. Brexit wasn't the cause of this, it was the sign of it. Thankfully more are waking up to this.

Interesting times ahead, hopefully tangibly different. Our offspring were never going to have a chance of owning a home under the status quo, for example. A large majority will hopefully give Labour the strength to dismiss mischief makers from within who really would like to ruin the term with their unelected demands on UK and overseas matters.

 

[Weststander]

Whilst here in Hove very little seems to be going on, no leaflets nor have i seen gangs of canvassing teams, i guess most are accepting the Kyle will walk it so better off deploying volunteers to the Pavilion constituency

I had a decent bet on Kyle winning last time, the bookies thought the Tory candidate would win. Local knowledge, I thought Kyle was good and popular.

I had a perusal at Betfair tonight, no opportunities.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

This is an astonishing list. Almost every Tory from moderate to right wing/ERG type leaving the Commons. Including JRM, Johnson, Hunt, IDS, Truss. Similarly the SNP decimated. Sussex becomes a sea of orange and red. LibDems quadruple their seats. Greens win Pavilion and Bristol Central.

Not hyperbolic to claim a once a century event, the last time, the powerful Liberal Party being decimated in 1924.

Only 2m Tories planning not to vote at all, can mitigate this.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html

I presume this is considerably related to Farage stealing votes from the Tories. If I were a Tory I'd be bloody livid.

And yet there are lifetime Tories on NSC claiming they will vote Reform. I....really don't think.....that will help you. And that's a gift from me as it certainly serves my preference, as it makes the whole lot of you, sensible and foolish, look like idiots.

 

[Cotton Socks]

I pointed out to my mum tonight that if she puts a usual tick by the Conservatives box she's going to be sending her grandson for national service. I counter argued her 'it will be good for him' thought, with the fact that I'd think he'd be a hindrance to the army. Xbox games don't actually make you want to fight in real life & that the money could be better spent on training people that do actually want to join, that was swept aside. I asked her if she knew anyone that had done national service & if it was a positive thing in their life. I didn't get much of an answer aside from my Dad missed it by one year. I don't think she'll bother to vote (thankfully).

 

[Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ]

Apologies if already covered - is there a risk of a Tory / Reform coalition government?

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Apologies if already covered - is there a risk of a Tory / Reform coalition government?

No because votes doesn't necessarily equal a high number of seats due to First Past the Post.

In all scenarios it is looking like Labour will get over 200 more seats than the Tories and Reform combined.

 

[Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ]

No because votes doesn't necessarily equal a high number of seats due to First Past the Post.

In all scenarios it is looking like Labour will get over 200 more seats than the Tories and Reform combined.

Cheers, good news!

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Cheers, good news!

Also in most seats reform will be splitting the right wing vote making it more likely for Labour or Lib Dems to win.

I suppose there is a risk that Reform/Tories agree some right wing alliance where they tell voters to vote for whoever is most likely to win in that seat to keep LD/Labour out. But not sure that would make a meaningful difference at this stage in more than a handful of seats.

It is too late to stand candidates down.

 

[Chicken Run]

No because votes doesn't necessarily equal a high number of seats due to First Past the Post.

In all scenarios it is looking like Labour will get over 200 more seats than the Tories and Reform combined.

So you’re a fan of FPTP then?

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

So you’re a fan of FPTP then?

Errrr no.

 

[Chicken Run]

Errrr no.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Interesting times ahead, hopefully tangibly different. Our offspring were never going to have a chance of owning a home under the status quo, for example. A large majority will hopefully give Labour the strength to dismiss mischief makers from within who really would like to ruin the term with their unelected demands on UK and overseas matters.

This may be the exception that proves the rule, but I know of three young couples who have bought their homes in the last two years, in the local area.
It’s not impossible.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Litmus Lancing

 

[Weststander]

This may be the exception that proves the rule, but I know of three young couples who have bought their homes in the last two years, in the local area.
It’s not impossible.

I know one too, Uckfield so cheaper. Ten years of parents ploughing money into ISA’s and LISA’s. Without the parents generosity who luckily one this matter had just one kid, probably a life of renting.

 

[Weststander]

I presume this is considerably related to Farage stealing votes from the Tories. If I were a Tory I'd be bloody livid.

And yet there are lifetime Tories on NSC claiming they will vote Reform. I....really don't think.....that will help you. And that's a gift from me as it certainly serves my preference, as it makes the whole lot of you, sensible and foolish, look like idiots.

Just pre election, Beffair had the Tories winning in the 100 to 150 ranges, 125 consistently about right. Now halved. Farage throwing his SS cap in the ring, imho the main factor.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Litmus Lancing

For many people it's what the politician says that matters, not what the politician actually does.

 

[Bodian]

Apologies if already covered - is there a risk of a Tory / Reform coalition government?

No because votes doesn't necessarily equal a high number of seats due to First Past the Post.

In all scenarios it is looking like Labour will get over 200 more seats than the Tories and Reform combined.

Even if we didn't have FPTP - Tory/Reform combined are less than the left of centre parties. So it would be the latter who would form a coalition.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

For many people it's what the politician says that matters, not what the politician actually does.

That, and tabloid headlines. Details don’t matter.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Litmus Lancing

Brains turned to mush by the Daily Mail and too much daytime TV.

 

[Bodian]

Litmus Lancing

Yes - but remember, they are on their way to the food bank. Of course they are not going to vote Labour. Labour want to do away with food banks!