[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Weststander]

On the narrowing of the polls, this graph is interesting. It compares Labour's lead over the Tories in 1997 with Labour's lead over the Tories in 2024. Its about a week old, with the little uptick a result of D-day-gate but we can see that Labour's lead over the Tories has held firm at 20 points, now 20 days out. And we know what happened in 1997.

Simple. There wasn’t an interloper in 97, now there’s Reform.

 

[Bodian]

If he wins his seat that is. The Guardian.

 

[Motogull]

 

[Weststander]

Wow

 

[NSC viewer]

Sunak is currently 1/3 to win his seat which suggests some jeopardy. And with Truss at 2/5 to win her constituency we could be on for an amazing double of them both losing! What a night that would be

I’d definitely be tempted by 1/3 that he doesn’t see out his 5 years as an MP. Would be surprised if he lasted a year

 

[Weststander]

Sunak is currently 1/3 to win his seat which suggests some jeopardy. And with Truss at 2/5 to win her constituency we could be on for an amazing double of them both losing! What a night that would be

I’d definitely be tempted by 1/3 that he doesn’t see out his 5 years as an MP. Would be surprised if he lasted a year

Truss will end up in the states making $m’s lecturing to Alt Right students on her brave new world. Probably part of an Alt Right lobby group. We just doesn’t want to disappear gracefully.

 

[Bozza]

Sunak is currently 1/3 to win his seat which suggests some jeopardy. And with Truss at 2/5 to win her constituency we could be on for an amazing double of them both losing! What a night that would be

I’d definitely be tempted by 1/3 that he doesn’t see out his 5 years as an MP. Would be surprised if he lasted a year

It's got to be one of the most remarkable zero to hero to zero journeys there has been...

2015 - elected as an MP
2018 - given a junior ministerial position
2020 - promoted to Chancellor of the Exchequer
2022 - Prime Minister
2024 - as you suggest - walks off into the (Californian) sunset.

 

[Petunia]

6am until polls close at 10pm and all paperwork completed. A long day. I’m doing the count at Burgess Hill. Start 9pm, finish somewhere around 5am - not sure I have made a good choice.

For many, many years I did both. If the general election coincided with a local it was usually a midday finish on the Friday!
Bizarrely, I actually miss it but I’m not sure I would cope now

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Sunak is currently 1/3 to win his seat which suggests some jeopardy. And with Truss at 2/5 to win her constituency we could be on for an amazing double of them both losing! What a night that would be

I’d definitely be tempted by 1/3 that he doesn’t see out his 5 years as an MP. Would be surprised if he lasted a year

I reckon he might look more devastated if he ended up winning his seat to be honest. Assuming the overall result will be a massive Labour majority.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Simple. There wasn’t an interloper in 97, now there’s Reform.

Yup. But the polls aren't narrowing like we're used to.

Actually there was James Goldsmith's Referendum Party, I remember them because my Dad voted for them, he couldn't bring himself to vote lefty (just realised I'm the same age now as he was then, well I won't make the same mistake lol). They got about 3% of the votes in the 550+ seats they stood in, a long way short of what Reform are projecting, but was the strongest minor party showing in decades and certainly paved the way for UKIP, Brexit Party and now Reform. According to wiki they were held directly responsible for the Tories losing 16 seats in 97. My Dad helped them get a perfectly respectable 4% in Hove

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It's got to be one of the most remarkable zero to hero to zero journeys there has been...

2015 - elected as an MP
2018 - given a junior ministerial position
2020 - promoted to Chancellor of the Exchequer
2022 - Prime Minister
2024 - as you suggest - walks off into the (Californian) sunset.

I think that's long enough to get his full MPs and PMs pension.

 

[MJsGhost]

A rare sight... on the A27 between Firle and Selmeston.

It seems to have gone down really well

 

[Thunder Bolt]

A rare sight... on the A27 between Firle and Selmeston.

It seems to have gone down really well View attachment 184118

That’s the first Cons sign I’ve seen. There are loads of Lib Dem boards around, even in Kingston and Seaford.

 

[jcdenton08]

Had a visit (first ever from any party in my ten years living in Seaford) from a young Lib Dem canvasser. Told him I’m voting Lib Dem to get the Tories out, nothing more, and he gave me a cheap paper pamphlet and offered me some posters to put in my window of my flat, which I declined as it’s against the rules.

There are Lib Dem posters and a few small banners around, nothing at all from the Tories except a glossy magazine in the post about a week ago.

 

[Weststander]

That’s the first Cons sign I’ve seen. There are loads of Lib Dem boards around, even in Kingston and Seaford.

I haven’t seen many Tory signs in 40 years. Before that photo, I always assume due to vandalism.

It is interesting living in a marginal, Brighton Pavilion, the parties are falling over themselves for our vote. Canvassing and a pile leaflet drops.

Whilst voters in Chorley or Maldon might be ignored.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I haven’t seen many Tory signs in 40 years. Before that photo, I always assume due to vandalism.

It is interesting living in a marginal, Brighton Pavilion, the parties are falling over themselves for our vote. Canvassing and a pile leaflet drops.

Whilst voters in Chorley or Maldon might be ignored.

Lewes is very marginal. The Conservative majority of 5K in 2015, dropped to 2K in 2019.

 

[Bodian]

Lewes is very marginal. The Conservative majority of 5K in 2015, dropped to 2K in 2019.

Even Adur is more of a marginal now. Electoral Calculus is predicting this (below).

When you think that both Shoreham and Worthing consistently returned Tory candidates for decades, this is quite something. When I was voting vainly against Richard Luce's highest ever majority vote, little did I know that 40 years later Labour might actually get in.

 

[Weststander]

Lewes is very marginal. The Conservative majority of 5K in 2015, dropped to 2K in 2019.

NSC’s anti-Tory masses in 2017 and 2019 had it down as a certain Caulfield loss. Similarly, for Amber Rudd in Hastings 2017. Posters spoke how they were going to relish the on stage pronouncements. Pringles and other snacks were bought in readiness.

LibDems will definitely win Lewes back. The centre right vote will be split with Reform, although a changing on the guard was obvious anyway.

 

[Weststander]

Even Adur is more of a marginal now. Electoral Calculus is predicting this (below).

When you think that both Shoreham and Worthing consistently returned Tory candidates for decades, this is quite something. When I was voting vainly against Richard Luce's highest ever majority vote, little did I know that 40 years later Labour might actually get in.

View attachment 184136

Interesting how the LibDems are nothing there now. In the 80’s always in a tussle with the Tories, I knew a LibDem councillor at my first employers.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

NSC’s anti-Tory masses in 2017 and 2019 had it down as a certain Caulfield loss. Similarly, for Amber Rudd in Hastings 2017. Posters spoke how they were going to relish the on stage pronouncements. Pringles and other snacks were bought in readiness.

LibDems will definitely win Lewes back. The centre right vote will be split with Reform, although a changing on the guard was obvious anyway.

I beg to differ with your first sentence. It was very much a Remain v Brexit vote in both of those elections, and whilst Lewes as a district were 54% Remain, there were loads of working class who would never normally vote Tory were wanting Brexit.