General Election 2015

[n1 gull]

Not on Oddschecker and they've been favourite to win most seats for ages

Now oddschecker has Cameron more odds on than Milliband

 

[alfredmizen]

i'll just leave this here, posted in another thread and i'm sure no one wants to miss it.

Bet none of them comment though....

 

[beorhthelm]

Only with the bookies/punters. The Tories have pulled the gap in the opinion polls -- which are far more important than what bets people have had -- but it's been neck-and-neck for a while now, as looking at any 'poll of polls' will tell you.

you shouldnt be so dismissive of the betting. this isnt just blokes having a tenner on Miliband/Cameron. there are many professional players in these markets, they do a lot of research and analysis to back substantial bets, often with access to information not necessarily in the public domain (raw polling data for instance).

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

you shouldnt be so dismissive of the betting. this isnt just blokes having a tenner on Miliband/Cameron. there are many professional players in these markets, they do a lot of research and analysis to back substantial bets, often with access to information not necessarily in the public domain (raw polling data for instance).

Are you related in any way to Vegas Seagull

 

[daveinprague]

Bet none of them comment though....

What would you like? Milibrand courts Russel Brand...Nigel Farage courts far right activists.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tml?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

What would you like? Milibrand courts Russel Brand...Nigel Farage courts far right activists.

The final choice the electorate faces is very much like a Morecambe & Wise sketch - Miliband , Clegg , Sturgeon and Wood in bed together or Cameron , Clegg , Farage and Robinson in bed together.

 

[pb21]

Bet none of them comment though....

"parties are legally not allowed to tally votes at these events, they all do and the constituency teams then dutifully pass their field intelligence back to HQ."

If this 'Uncut Labour' website actually has any evidence whatsoever that they do, they should be forwarding it on the the relevant authorities as it is clearly undemocratic.

 

[Flex Your Head]

This is the frightening thing that the Murdoch media try and railroad Cameron back into power

Indeed: http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...more-seats-labour-get-ready-very-british-coup

 

[Titanic]

Highest Populus score of the year for the Conservatives ...

Populus poll (01 - 03 May):

CON - 34% (+1)
LAB - 34% (+1)
UKIP - 13% (-2)
LDEM - 10% (+1)

 

[Bold Seagull]

Indeed: http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...more-seats-labour-get-ready-very-british-coup

Good article, but didn't this happen in 2010?

'We are sleepwalking into a dangerous moment. If there is a left-of-centre, anti-Tory majority in parliament then the Tories must fall, however many seats they have won. Left-wing parties will have won the election and a left-of-centre government led by Labour must take office. And yet it would be deemed “illegitimate” by the Tories and most of the media. That really would be a situation with few precedents in an advanced democracy: where the opposition and media refuse to accept the democratic legitimacy of the national government.'

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I'm quite looking forward to all the UKIP voters who have never previously had any interest in proportional representation, and didn't bother voting in the AV referendum earlier this Parliament, becoming very vocal in their support of it come Friday morning.

As someone who will be voting UKIP on Thursday, I'll say it now for you - I've supported PR for a long time. It's unfair on all the voters for the smaller parties that their voice is not represented in parliament. If UKIP get 15% of the vote then they should get around 95 MPs or, if UKIP aren't your bag, then if the Greens get around 6% of the vote they should have around 35 MPs. Yes, I voted in the AV referendum and I voted for AV even though it wasn't real PR. FPTP only benefits Labour and the Tories - nobody else.

 

[Simster]

As someone who will be voting UKIP on Thursday, I'll say it now for you - I've supported PR for a long time. It's unfair on all the voters for the smaller parties that their voice is not represented in parliament. If UKIP get 15% of the vote then they should get around 95 MPs or, if UKIP aren't your bag, then if the Greens get around 6% of the vote they should have around 35 MPs. Yes, I voted in the AV referendum and I voted for AV even though it wasn't real PR. FPTP only benefits Labour and the Tories - nobody else.

Very much this. I consider UKIP to be an absolute bunch of clowns, but if those clowns command 15% of the popular vote, then they deserve representation in parliament.

I do hope that a movement for fair representation will take hold soon.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Very much this. I consider UKIP to be an absolute bunch of clowns, but if those clowns command 15% of the popular vote, then they deserve representation in parliament.

I do hope that a movement for fair representation will take hold soon.

Clowns in your opinion. UKIP are fielding 683 candidates in this election.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Very much this. I consider UKIP to be an absolute bunch of clowns, but if those clowns command 15% of the popular vote, then they deserve representation in parliament.

I do hope that a movement for fair representation will take hold soon.

Not sure what it is though. So many problems with PR, if we thought the West Lothian question is a constitutional challenge, then PR will make that look like the proverbial walk in the park. It just isn't easy to take our local constituency vote for our representation to parliament, and turn those votes into something that count toward elected members that might not actually represent us.

That said, I very much doubt 15% in FTPT would equate to 15% in PR. Voting patterns would radically change as much as the electoral system. Tactical voting would take on a whole new meaning, and you might well be faced with local representation that has absolutely no bearing on how that locality voted. Not yet see a system presented what I could say that has to be done. I voted Yes in the AV, because any change, or looking at change would be a good thing in my opinion. However there is no convincing answer as far as I can see at the moment.

 

[Gwylan]

FPTP only benefits Labour and the Tories - nobody else.

Oh no, the party that benefits most from it is the SNP. It's on course to win 100% of all Scottish seats with about 50% of the vote. Plaid Cymru could do well out out of FPTP too

 

[Bold Seagull]

Clowns in your opinion. UKIP are fielding 683 candidates in this election.

for the 650 available seats?

 

[Deleted member 22389]

for the 650 available seats?

Don't know where I heard it. People just see Farage as UKIP.

 

[Simster]

Clowns in your opinion. UKIP are fielding 683 candidates in this election.

for the 650 available seats?

QED.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

for the 650 available seats?

The actual number of UKIP candidates standing is 624 but the weighting methodology applied by some pollsters extrapolates the real numbers

 

[Bob!]

Clowns in your opinion. UKIP are fielding 683 candidates in this election.

Definitely Clowns then, standing against themselves in a few seats!