General Election 2015

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Gather round you young folk .........................


....... back in the day the Dome was the place to watch the results come in. They announced the local results (not sure about Hove, but they did Kemp Town and Pavilion) and did all the speeches - and had screens for the national results coming in. The National Front were out in force waving Union Jacks, all the parties were there - it was politics in the raw. I went there for both 1974 elections - the atmosphere was electric.

 

[Cian]

I've to be in work for 5:30am on Friday so I'm planning a near total inversion of my day rather than hanging around for the first few seats then trying to get an hour or two kip.

Will be getting in the Irn Bru (have to, with the SNP probably being kingmakers) and crisps in as sustenance.

 

[pb21]

I’ll stay up for the exit poll, which from 2010 I remember was surprisingly accurate and essentially the actual result, at least in terms of the number of MPs.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I’ll stay up for the exit poll, which from 2010 I remember was surprisingly accurate and essentially the actual result, at least in terms of the number of MPs.

It was incredibly accurate BUT this time we have the UKIP factor - how many seats will Labour win because ex Tories are voting UKIP - and the SNP factor, where Labour look like being wiped out in Scotland.

 

[pb21]

It was incredibly accurate BUT this time we have the UKIP factor - how many seats will Labour win because ex Tories are voting UKIP - and the SNP factor, where Labour look like being wiped out in Scotland.

True, I guess there is less history on which to base the exit poll statistics and it will therefore be more likely to be wrong...

 

[Machiavelli]

you shouldnt be so dismissive of the betting. this isnt just blokes having a tenner on Miliband/Cameron. there are many professional players in these markets, they do a lot of research and analysis to back substantial bets, often with access to information not necessarily in the public domain (raw polling data for instance).

What do you make of the pollster analysis that points in a very different direction, or the first story on this site?:

http://politicalbetting.com

 

[whosthedaddy]

I like others on here have booked the next day off so as to do an all-nighter, I know the result won't be clear until Friday lunch-time probably but watching and listening to the winners and losers' reactions can be very telling.

The most interesting part of this election will be seeing if the SNP can wipe out all or almost all of the Labour seats north of the border and listening to the excuses of those who have lost their seats explain just how it happened. Other than that it will be telling if the Lib Dems hold onto their West Country seats or not, and whether UKIP can win more than the two seats they have already.

I suspect if the Conservatives achieve around 300 seats then they will try to form the next government with support from the Lib Dems and, if required, the DUP.

 

[Stato]

Indeed: http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...more-seats-labour-get-ready-very-british-coup

It wouldn't happen in Germany. Helmut Schmidt was made chancellor of West Germany after elections in 1976 and 1980. Both times his party came second in the number of seats, but with no overall majority, the party that could make a coalition which could legislate governed. Logically, this is the only workable outcome. Should Cameron get a Queen's Speech through because of media pressure on Labour to let him, the same media pressure could not be brought to force each time he tried to pass legislation that would turn parts of his programme into law. The only legislation the tories would be able to get through would be tory policies that a good proportion of the Labour Party would vote for. In other words, Blairism.

The optimist in me sees potential for some real democracy to emerge from this election, with whoever governs having to argue their case over each issue rather than whipping the robots through votes. I expect this optimism will be crushed by the battle lines being drawn in the first newspaper headlines on Friday.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

What do you make of the pollster analysis that points in a very different direction, or the first story on this site?:

http://politicalbetting.com

I note [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] didn't make any reference to the latest Ashcroft national poll which shows the Tory lead has been cut back from 6 points to only 2 from the previous poll

 

[Ernest]

I note [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] didn't make any reference to the latest Ashcroft national poll which shows the Tory lead has been cut back from 6 points to only 2 from the previous poll

Or this one

Latest Mirror/Survation poll:

LAB 34 (n/c)
CON 33 (n/c)
UKIP 16 (n/c)
LD 9 (n/c)
SNP 4 (+1)
GREEN 4 (+1)
OTHER 1 (-1)

 

[melias shoes]

Wow. Real surprise. The Independent have come out in favour of Conservstive Liberal coalition. Theyve called it right

Yep.Have some of that. You're right though very surprising.

 

[Ernest]

Yep.Have some of that. You're right though very surprising.

Not really seeing as the owner is a Russian who owns the Standard too

 

[melias shoes]

i'll just leave this here, posted in another thread and i'm sure no one wants to miss it.

Very interesting. Thanks for that.

 

[melias shoes]

Not really seeing as the owner is a Russian who owns the Standard too

Go with that though,won't we?

 

[Ernest]

More interesting from the Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-watch-david-cameron-and-boris-johnson-being-told-theyre-elitist-and-out-of-touch-because-they-went-to-eton-10226546.html

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Final poll from Survation

LAB 34%
CON 33%
UKIP 16%
LD 9%
SNP 4%
GREEN 4%

 

[melias shoes]

More interesting from the Independent

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-watch-david-cameron-and-boris-johnson-being-told-theyre-elitist-and-out-of-touch-because-they-went-to-eton-10226546.html

No it isn't it's the usual divisive drivel that's often spouted by lefties. What type of school did Harriet harperson attend. You know that independent fee paying one.

 

[portslade seagull]

I'm sure if you all look hard enough there will be a poll which suits your particular needs or prejudices

 

[beorhthelm]

What do you make of the pollster analysis that points in a very different direction, or the first story on this site?:

http://politicalbetting.com

i think its one pundits opinion - he even says so himself - going against the grain. most interesting thing on that page is the post from 4th May showing the polling for Sheffield Hallam naming Clegg, against the polling based on party. appears he is supported and will hold.

 

[Hampster Gull]

The only way is UP