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General Election 2015



Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,706
The Fatherland
Whilst it would be stupid to trust any politician, doesn't it make it even harder when a politician announces that he will need to pass a law to ensure that he keeps a promise! Cameron has stated that he will pass a law ensuring that taxes for working people aren't increased before 2020. He can only pass the law if he is in government and therefore surely if he is in government, he merely has to make the decision not to increase taxes? That said, he could make the law, encounter economic problems, possibly out of his control, that require a more money and therefore make a new law scrapping the first!

He has criticised Milliband for is interview with Brand, describing it as a joke, but isn't his statement even funnier because he meant it to be serious?

The Tories are all over the place at the moment. They'll be put out of their misery very shortly though.
 




glasfryn

cleaning up cat sick
Nov 29, 2005
20,261
somewhere in Eastbourne
Whilst it would be stupid to trust any politician, doesn't it make it even harder when a politician announces that he will need to pass a law to ensure that he keeps a promise! Cameron has stated that he will pass a law ensuring that taxes for working people aren't increased before 2020. He can only pass the law if he is in government and therefore surely if he is in government, he merely has to make the decision not to increase taxes? That said, he could make the law, encounter economic problems, possibly out of his control, that require a more money and therefore make a new law scrapping the first!

He has criticised Milliband for is interview with Brand, describing it as a joke, but isn't his statement even funnier because he meant it to be serious?


and did you notice the guys and girls he was speaking to looked rather bemused and certaily did not find it funny.
 


Soulman

New member
Oct 22, 2012
10,966
Sompting
Quesir Mahmood held in postal vote fraud probe in Blackburn.


A Labour local election candidate has been suspended by the party following his arrest on suspicion of electoral fraud.

Quesir Mahmood, 38, was arrested on Monday and questioned by Lancashire Police in connection with alleged postal vote irregularities.

Mr Mahmood, a project manager in the pharmaceutical industry, is standing in the Wensley Fold ward for a seat on Blackburn with Darwen Council.

He has been bailed until 4 June.

A party spokesman said: "The Labour Party takes adherence to the Electoral Commission's code of conduct very seriously.

"The individual has been suspended pending the outcome of any police investigation."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-32492853

Seems a lot of these people are infiltrating the Labour party, more fool them, their agenda is pretty clear after the fraud in Tower Hamlets and a few other constituencies.
 


Soulman

New member
Oct 22, 2012
10,966
Sompting
And this, what a flaming hypocrite.
just under 96,000 Stemcor shares handed to Ms Hodge in 2011 came from [Liechtenstein], which is renowned for low tax rates. Three quarters of the shares in the family’s Liechtenstein trust had previously been held in Panama, which Ms Hodge described last month as “one of the most secretive jurisdictions” with “the least protection anywhere in the world against money laundering”. The veteran Labour MP was accused of sheer hypocrisy. She has repeatedly attacked big businesses and bankers who used offshore arrangements, but has not declared that she benefited from an offshore trust.”
http://order-order.com/2015/04/29/hodge-the-dodges-tax-hypocrisy-goes-box-office/#_@/SIHaDEPCOtmZXA
 


Kevlar

New member
Dec 20, 2013
518
we have not been recovering at a decent rate for several years
when the coalition came to power GDP growth was 1%
it took 4 years for the government to return to those rates
there has been a raft of historically low economic data
last year it was average wages flatlining for 7 years
recently it was productivity flatlining for 7 years
it is true that austerity lite uk has done better than real austerity Europe
but the recovery the time taken to reach the previous GDP high
has been the longest reliably recorded I am not sure if you took
the more relatively accurate measurement of GDP per capita if we are there yet!
The slowest recovery historically since the south sea bubble.
and apparently the growth rate in the first quarter of this year is half
the last quarter of last year.
IF mad plans to balance the books in a weak country actually happen
recession will return.
After much faster recovery from the global financial crisis in the USA
recently their government sector deficits have fallen rapidly.
Their latest economic data show a yearly growth rate of .2 %
it is not suprising the last 18 recessions in the USA were preceded
by falling government sector deficits.
 








Titanic

Super Moderator
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,923
West Sussex
YouGov poll (28-29 Apr):

CON - 35% (+1)
LAB - 34% (-1)
UKIP - 12% (=)
LDEM - 9% (=)
GRN - 4% (=)

Combined with likely SNP total wipeout of Labour in Scotland... this is still on a knife edge... which is interesting.

 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,706
The Fatherland
I do hope so then you can be put out of yours and get backto posting pictures of posh food in the corporate hospitality areas of the Amex lol

Good point. I have to put civic duty above my usual interests at present.
 


Seagull on the wing

New member
Sep 22, 2010
7,458
Hailsham
Hypocrisy is the vogue at the moment....from MOST of the politicians. They talk about millionaires and business leaders funneling funds abroad to dodge paying tax here,yet they themsewlves have done the same and fiddled expenses (one claiming 25p). There are a lot of people who are on benefits who will no,t or want to work.. If there was a way to stop it this country would save millions,but it's a way of the world at the moment.
 


drew

Drew
NSC Patron
Oct 3, 2006
23,621
Burgess Hill
Quesir Mahmood held in postal vote fraud probe in Blackburn.


A Labour local election candidate has been suspended by the party following his arrest on suspicion of electoral fraud.

Quesir Mahmood, 38, was arrested on Monday and questioned by Lancashire Police in connection with alleged postal vote irregularities.

Mr Mahmood, a project manager in the pharmaceutical industry, is standing in the Wensley Fold ward for a seat on Blackburn with Darwen Council.

He has been bailed until 4 June.

A party spokesman said: "The Labour Party takes adherence to the Electoral Commission's code of conduct very seriously.

"The individual has been suspended pending the outcome of any police investigation."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-32492853

Seems a lot of these people are infiltrating the Labour party, more fool them, their agenda is pretty clear after the fraud in Tower Hamlets and a few other constituencies.

For the purposes of clarity, could you confirm exactly what you mean by 'these people'?
 




Titanic

Super Moderator
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,923
West Sussex
This latest IPSOS/MORI poll is also rather interesting...

ipsosmori-poll-1-762x428.jpg
 








ROSM

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2005
6,776
Just far enough away from LDC
IF that trend continues, and the Tories can get to 37% - taking another point from Lab and UKIP - then they will be very close to a majority

The poll of polls with all conducted in the last 7 days gives conservative a 1% lead. I expect that on the day the figure will be closer to 3% in real votes. The expected flight to the status quo is happening albeit slower and in not as much depth as 2010 or 2005

However it's the marginal polls, both the ITV and ashcroft ones that show labour performing better than on a national spread

All pointing to tories having highest vote share and maybe more seats but still unable to form a government

Unless something amazing happens tonight......
 




Southy

Active member
Jul 7, 2003
668
The poll of polls with all conducted in the last 7 days gives conservative a 1% lead. I expect that on the day the figure will be closer to 3% in real votes. The expected flight to the status quo is happening albeit slower and in not as much depth as 2010 or 2005

However it's the marginal polls, both the ITV and ashcroft ones that show labour performing better than on a national spread

All pointing to tories having highest vote share and maybe more seats but still unable to form a government

Unless something amazing happens tonight......

Another factor is that Labour are winning the ground war in terms of reaching voters direct and activists on the ground. The Tories have a real problem with this due to lack of numbers of activists where as Labour will have the numbers on the ground to canvass and then knock up and get people out to vote on the day. This could make a key difference in the seats where the swing is within 5% in a Con/Lab marginal as turn out on the day could swing 20/30 seats Labours way.
 






peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,278
The poll of polls with all conducted in the last 7 days gives conservative a 1% lead. I expect that on the day the figure will be closer to 3% in real votes. The expected flight to the status quo is happening albeit slower and in not as much depth as 2010 or 2005

However it's the marginal polls, both the ITV and ashcroft ones that show labour performing better than on a national spread

All pointing to tories having highest vote share and maybe more seats but still unable to form a government

Unless something amazing happens tonight......

Totally agree, You cant apply national polls to predicted uniform swing in marginals. Incumbency plays a big role, a lot of good local MPs in constituencies will buck the national trend. Could end up Hove Labour, Pavilion Green, Kemptown Tory.

Will come down to a few marginals in England, UKIP is the fox in the hen house, theyve split the tory vote, and the Torys would get in without them. Could come down to how many Kippers switch back or even tactical voting. Ashcroft polling says Torys will vote Clegg in Sheff Halam to stop Labour and Labour will vote Tory in S.Thanet to decapitate Farage.

Will be an interesting night, get the pringles in
 


glasfryn

cleaning up cat sick
Nov 29, 2005
20,261
somewhere in Eastbourne
quite honestly polls do not mean a thing
the polls in Israel showed one thing one and half hours (90min) before the election and yet still the far right got in I am just hoping our lot have got it wrong as well and ED sails in with a majority
 


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