General Election 2015

[Ernest]

Can't see Worthing/Shoreham going UKIP and if they've been campaigning they've done it quietly, I think the UKIP will be another Social Democrat party and will either return to the Tories or fade into obscurity and of course Farage will continue to fill his boots in Brussels

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Over on www.ukpollingreport.co.uk I had to laugh at this post on the Thursday Poll blog


"I set out below a prediction which I doubt events will prove wrong:
1. At some point tonight someone will come on this site and state they have seen it tweeted that the YouGov poll shows Tories with a 11% lead.
2. Regular on this site will be up in arms and ask for the evidence, but also be timid in suggesting perhaps this might be a troll.
3. there will be another tweet copied and pasted from a Sun reporter that tonight’s poll is very interesting.
4. over 100 posts will be expended deliberating whether interesting means Labour or Tories have a significant lead.
5. Yougov poll will come out at 10.30 showing one party or other has a 1 point lead.
6. Sarcastic remarks will be made about SNP / Salmond / coalition being a game changer (not) will be made.
7. We will all go to bed, and same ritual will happen tomorrow."


Does it remind you of a certain thread on NSC

 

[8ace]

Betfair Predicts - 2015 UK General Election

Brighton Pav - Green
Brighton Kemp - Labour
Hove - Labour

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Betfair Predicts - 2015 UK General Election

Brighton Pav - Green
Brighton Kemp - Labour
Hove - Labour

Hove is very much a bell-weather seat , whoever wins should indicate how the election will swing

 

[Hampster Gull]

And the 'omnishambles' budget. What was that about?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_9712000/9712855.stm

Words used by Red Ed, hardly unbiaised. Everyone has ups and downs but judge on resutls

 

[8ace]

Hove is very much a bell-weather seat , whoever wins should indicate how the election will swing

Looking good for Ernets and Lord Haw Haw

 

[Titanic]

Well... this is a WEIRD one...

Tonight's Survation/Daily Mirror (22-23rd April):

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 29% (-4)
UKIP 18% (+1)
LD 10% (+3)
SNP 4% (NC)
GRE 4% (+1)

 

[Bodian]

This may have been posted before/elsewhere - an interesting article on the relationship between voting and football ground location. http://may2015.com/ideas/election-2015-football-lays-bare-the-great-divides-in-british-politics/

 

[melias shoes]

98p for a 4 pack in Asda , 99p in 99p stores , £1 in Poundland

As long as it's plain chocolate.

 

[crookie]

Well... this is a WEIRD one...

Tonight's Survation/Daily Mirror (22-23rd April):

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 29% (-4)
UKIP 18% (+1)
LD 10% (+3)
SNP 4% (NC)
GRE 4% (+1)

Doubt the Mirror will be making that front page news !!

 

[penny's harmonica]

This thread needs a little light relief. Let's take five
http://youtu.be/hN2D_VgbgEg

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Well... this is a WEIRD one...

Tonight's Survation/Daily Mirror (22-23rd April):

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 29% (-4)
UKIP 18% (+1)
LD 10% (+3)
SNP 4% (NC)
GRE 4% (+1)

LibDems on 10% ? WTF ?

 

[Kuipers Supporters Club]

Well... this is a WEIRD one...

Tonight's Survation/Daily Mirror (22-23rd April):

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 29% (-4)
UKIP 18% (+1)
LD 10% (+3)
SNP 4% (NC)
GRE 4% (+1)

That Survation poll would mean:

Conservative 279
Labour 251
Liberal Democrat 30
UKIP 11
SNP 56
Green 1
Others 4 (PC and GG)

(Doesn't Include N.I)



( I used the latest data available in Scotland for Percentages from YouGov/The Times: SNP: 49%, Lab: 25%, Con: 17%, LD: 5%, UKIP:3%, Greens:1%)

Con + LD + DUP would still be short. If Tories could take 4 points off UKIP (polling at 14 gives 5 MPs) - that might be the difference if Labour stayed on 29 - would give Tories 282 and + LD could rely on the Unionist parties in a confidence and supply deal at about 321.

 

[Prince Monolulu]

 

[Titanic]

Well... this is a WEIRD one...

Tonight's Survation/Daily Mirror (22-23rd April):

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 29% (-4)
UKIP 18% (+1)
LD 10% (+3)
SNP 4% (NC)
GRE 4% (+1)

Looks just as WEIRD in this graphic form:

 

[Ernest]

View attachment 64854

Vote Green you mean

 

[peterward]

Looks just as WEIRD in this graphic form:

ignore it, unless more polls show a trend... been loads of random polls, but mean is pretty much Lab/Con neck and neck.

What is incredible (as much as i dont support UKIP) is that Ukip have over 10% about 4-5 million voters and they will likely end up with below 5 seats.

SNP has 4% and about 1.5-2 million voters and will end up with around 50 seats and may well be the kingmakers in government.

what a crackpot system

 

[Soulman]

ignore it, unless more polls show a trend... been loads of random polls, but mean is pretty much Lab/Con neck and neck.

What is incredible (as much as i dont support UKIP) is that Ukip have over 10% about 4-5 million voters and they will likely end up with below 5 seats.

SNP has 4% and about 1.5-2 million voters and will end up with around 50 seats and may well be the kingmakers in government.

what a crackpot system

Yep, crackpot system indeed.........it's called "democracy"..............i think Pat sums it up in "We have a democracy problem"

 

[Ernest]

You had your chance to change things but it was an overwhelming majority to remain FPTP

 

[Titanic]

Latest ComRes/ITV poll:

CON - 36% (+2)
LAB - 32% (-1)
UKIP - 10% (-2)
LDEM - 8% (-4)
GRN - 5% (+1)

Different again, but equally INTERESTING.