General Election 2015

[Buzzer]

Hey, if you start a campaign against Random House, I'll support it and the great thing about is Brand is that he probably will too!

Let me know about your first big campaign meeting, I'll be there

But then Brand would have to write out all future editions in crayon. That's no way to treat the successor to Thomas Paine.

 

[Gwylan]

I'm not at all sure that we will even see debates. Cameron has nothing to gain by entering into them. He was ambushed by Clegg in the debates during the last election cycle and I suspect that he would struggle contain Farage this time around.

I never said that Miliband was unelectable but I think it is too simplistic to suggest that his polling woes are solely a media creation. While it is only anecdotal I know of very few people, including firm Labour supporters, who feel confident about his prospects.

Returning to my theme, I can't imagine that Miliband will particularly want to engage in debates either. His popularity ratings are very low and his advisors must know that it is a real risk taking on televised debates when he is still currently poised to be the leader of the largest party when the dust has settled.

I would be far from surprised if both Cameron and Miliband made mood music about wanting a debate but that they simply "could not reach an agreement" and end up vetoing the whole thing, as they are not yet embedded as an election norm.

I agree with much of this: Cameron would be mad to enter into a debate with Farage; I don't think Farage is that good but (bizarrely, for a public school-educated, millionaire stockbroker) he has a man of the people schtick that would really throw CMD.

Miliband would be even more ill-advised to get involved: I personally think he's come up with some decent ideas and he's trying to move away from the Blair/Brown approach and let his shadow cabinet be more prominent - it's working to some extent but what's he not is a skilled debater/public speaker - he'd definitely come off worst.

The decision on the Greens could well give both Miliband and Cameron an out. And let's be thankful that there's no call for Respect to be include because Georgeous George would eat both of them alive

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Labour had a fundraising dinner for the homeless in Glasgow last night : Ed donated some shortbread

 

[drew]

Why would I change it to £100K? Is that the "going rate" for strawberry farmers in your world. If so, why are so many farmers selling off land to pay off farming losses when they can simply plant some strawberries and rake in the cash?

But he didnt get in. Spoon-faced Cameron couldn't beat one of the most unpopular uncharismatic Labour leaders in history, was only the Lib Dem rats that got him in. The truth is Tory vote is in long term decline and they have next to no chance of getting a majority this time either, hence why they are rushing Boris into parliament

The aftermath of the global recession and Labour being led by, probably, the least respected labour leader in living memory, the last election should have been a shoe in for any tory leader but Cameron failed to win the election outright.

I'm not sure that can be seen as anything other than voter apathy in the extreme. % votes was less than 15% and 12% of that was by postal vote... and given that there's an extremely long history of postal vote fraud from that area I'm not surprised at all by these figures in what was, is and always will be a Labour stronghold. As I said, most people think that Labour and Tory are two sides of the same coin and the result is 85% of the electorate not giving a toss about the election.

Scandal or no scandal, I think Labour are more than 'hoping' for political wins in South Yorkshire, it's a given no matter what the election is about.

Difficult to see how the PCC elections which drew widespread apathy across the country can be used as a gauge for the general elections. Equally, I don't think the turnout for the Scottish referendum will be carried forward to a general election.

Because he doesn't realize that when he said that if Labour form the next government they will freeze energy prices, this prompted them NOT to lower prices this winter energy company's fear that if Labour win they will have prices that are too low to make any money. Nice one ed.

How often prior to this have the energy companies effectively lowered the bills anyway?

Personally I'm waiting for the People's Front of Judea to issue their Manifesto.

Not to be confused the the party at the opposite end of the political scale, the Judean's People's Popular Front!

 

[jakarta]

the judean's people's popular front!

Bloody Splitters!!!!

 

[London Irish]

But then Brand would have to write out all future editions in crayon. That's no way to treat the successor to Thomas Paine.

Yes, spotted another flaw in this big anti tax avoider campaign you and I are launching, I actually work for a company kind of related to Random House. So from now on, I will only be posting mildly centre-right opinions on NSC, apologise most humbly for any confusion caused by previous 15,000 posts

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I don't buy this. There have been surveys that show UKIP gain virtually all their support from disaffected Tories, with very few Labour. Labour's problem is people not voting, not them turning to UKIP. If you look at UKIP's list of 20 target seats, 18 of them are Tory held and only one Labour - it doesn't strike me that UKIP think they're going to hit Labour too hard.

The Labour target seat is Grimsby , in May UKIP won another 5 seats on the county council to take them up to 8 seats and missed out capturing Immingham ward by eight votes. Labour lost their overall control. UKIP appear to be polling a 36% support in the constituency presently.

 

[GreersElbow]

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/31/update-conservatives-lead-1/

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 30th Oct - Con 33%, Lab 32%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%; APP -22

 

[beorhthelm]

Really don't buy this Tory spin that Milliband is unelectable either. After the election there was much talk of Labour being out of office for 15 years or more (including several threads on here), now, four years later, the party's ahead in the polls and the talk is that it's because the leadership is poor that they're not further ahead.

You can tell the likes of the Mail and the Sun are really rattled by Miliband because of the way they spin this weak leadership nonsense. I do admit that he does have a problem in Scotland though but I don't think that's because he's weak - there are a multitude of issues at play there (and it probably doesn't help that the last three leaders have been Scottish and the one before that, Welsh).

i cant work out if its funny or sad that some think the contention Miliband is unelectable is a spin story. Labour may be set to be the largest party in May, but the fact is he is a massive drag on the party. while Labour is ahead in polling personal opinion polls have Miliband similar or sometime lower than Clegg. Clegg. how can anyone dismiss that as spin? even a Mirror commissioned poll reported his statemanship rating "lept" from 18% to 34%. a future leader of UK only a 3rd consider him statemanlike, and thats a high point.

he was told to stay out of Scotland for the referendum, Labour prefering to pull in the charismatic leader figure of Gordon Brown... he has a lot more than "a problem" in Scotland. Miliband has been critised by many in his own party in a manner i dont recal in any leader except imminently before their departure. he is only in his position because he picked up some support from the "anyone but David Miliband" in the parlimentry Labour party, and support from unions precisely because they thought he's an empty vessal they could influence and control (not necessarily gone to plan).

 

[London Irish]

i cant work out if its funny or sad that some think the contention Miliband is unelectable is a spin story. Labour may be set to be the largest party in May, but the fact is he is a massive drag on the party. while Labour is ahead in polling personal opinion polls have Miliband similar or sometime lower than Clegg Clegg. how can anyone dismiss that as spin? even a Mirror commissioned poll reported his statemanship rating lept from 18% to 34%. a future leader of UK only a 3rd consider him statemanlike and thats a high point

This really isn't rocket science, even of the Virgin variety.

The entire single focus of the Tory attack machine and their flying media monkeys has been Miliband. Of course his negatives are going to be vast. Anything pummelled to that extent by negative campaigning is going to take a hit.

This is the modern way of attack campaigning, the Tories are putting all their eggs into presidentialising the race into a contrast between two men, rather than of the policies of the parties.

The gullability is believing any other Labour leader wouldn't face such ferocious attack short of electing an actual right-winger like Blair to lead the party again.

 

[beorhthelm]

The entire single focus of the Tory attack machine and their flying media monkeys has been Miliband. Of course his negatives are going to be vast. Anything pummelled to that extent by negative campaigning is going to take a hit.

what even amongst his own party? you dont have to have any media monkey input to recognise the man lacks charisma or political gravitas to lead a major political party. his demeanour is one of someone uncomfortable with his position. he's a party intellectual ponderer, not a polictical bruiser, a minister, not Prime Minister.

blaming it on the media ignores how they where happy to run down Duncan-Smith and Howard. blaming Tory strategy ignores that the Labour dont seem to have any of their own, except relying on electoral bias. i think of some of the capable politicans under Labour in the past decade i wonder where on earth they have all disappeared to.

 

[London Irish]

what even amongst his own party? you dont have to have any media monkey input to recognise the man lacks charisma or political gravitas to lead a major political party. his demeanour is one of someone uncomfortable with his position. he's a party intellectual ponderer, not a polictical bruiser, a minister, not Prime Minister.

blaming it on the media ignores how they where happy to run down Duncan-Smith and Howard. blaming Tory strategy ignores that the Labour dont seem to have any of their own, except relying on electoral bias. i think of some of the capable politicans under Labour in the past decade i wonder where on earth they have all disappeared to.

Yes - the attacks in his own party are the easiest to understand! He stood on a platform of saying the Blairities ****ed up. But the parliamentary Labout party has seen vast numbers of these Blairite cuckoos been elected over the past 15 years - they don't like him and are so traitorous they will happily brief privately against him. Not surprising - their forerunners split the Labour Party in the 80s to form the SDP and preferred to hand the country to Thatcher rather than allow a genuine left of centre party to put its programme to the British people.

Intellectual gravitas? Miliband is one of the smartest guys in British politics, an actual career PR hack like Cameron isn't fit to lick his boots as a genuine intellectual.

A political bruiser? I've no idea what cliched stereotype that's meant to be, but let me tell you one key fact. Miliband leads a party where most of the MPs didn't support his election and where most of the members didn't vote for him, he has actually no power base inside his own party (he was elected by the vote of affilated union members). Now whatever you may think of him, that takes some guts and a thick skin to lead a party in those circumstances.

Yet the party remains united - publically at least, the Blairite worms will continue to gutlessly brief privately but won't show their faces if they have any self-survival sense. Contrast that with Cameron, MPs defecting to the de facto right wing split Ukip - and a man so lacking in backbone he'll change his mind on Europe overnight and back again depending on how the internal war in his own party is going this week.

What Miliband hasn't got of course is an array of tame press proprietors pumping out Tory propaganda every day to mystify all this.

 

[beorhthelm]

Intellectual gravitas? Miliband is one of the smartest guys in British politics, an actual career PR hack like Cameron isn't fit to lick his boots as a genuine intellectual.

interesting you read that, as i didnt write it. i dont deny he is an intellectual. i think thats half the problem, he'd be better off at a university. i said lack Political gravitas, he cant put across a strong message.

Miliband leads a party where most of the MPs didn't support his election and where most of the members didn't vote for him, he has actually no power base inside his own party (he was elected by the vote of affilated union members). Now whatever you may think of him, that takes some guts and a thick skin to lead a party in those circumstances.

quite, he cant even gain support of his own people. he cant call them in to line, cant convince them of a political message to tell the electorate and take them forward in some selmblance of unity. strong politicians will have thier natural opponents, internally and externally, sulk in the corner as they know they cant win, or come inside the tent as they say, to be part of a project an influence from within. seems Miliband struggles to get his own front bench to pitch in for the team, they just pipe up for their brief then return to cover.

 

[drew]

what even amongst his own party? you dont have to have any media monkey input to recognise the man lacks charisma or political gravitas to lead a major political party. his demeanour is one of someone uncomfortable with his position. he's a party intellectual ponderer, not a polictical bruiser, a minister, not Prime Minister.

blaming it on the media ignores how they where happy to run down Duncan-Smith and Howard. blaming Tory strategy ignores that the Labour dont seem to have any of their own, except relying on electoral bias. i think of some of the capable politicans under Labour in the past decade i wonder where on earth they have all disappeared to.

But surely you also recognise that no party leader enjoys universal support from his MPs (apart maybe for Farage who just has the one)!

 

[beorhthelm]

But surely you also recognise that no party leader enjoys universal support from his MPs (apart maybe for Farage who just has the one)!

absolutly, but there seems nearer universal disenchantment in Labour. just look what happen in scotland. he has no visable support from his team, when someone has a go at him theres no one fighting for his cause. there was a long piece on one of the non-"tory" papers with lists of constituencies complaints about policy, strategy, saying things where vague. i cant recall which it was, but it was pretty damning. he has a couple of soundbites and when he puts forth something looking like a policy its pulled apart by the time the Evening Standard goes to print. yes, there maybe media bias, but the fact is its so easy, because there's no substance. i recall his recent housing policy, i worked out in about 5 minutes its little more than what already happens, certainly nothing radical, it amounted to "we'll build a few more houses".

 

[Gwylan]

absolutly, but there seems nearer universal disenchantment in Labour. just look what happen in scotland. he has no visable support from his team, when someone has a go at him theres no one fighting for his cause. there was a long piece on one of the non-"tory" papers with lists of constituencies complaints about policy, strategy, saying things where vague. i cant recall which it was, but it was pretty damning. he has a couple of soundbites and when he puts forth something looking like a policy its pulled apart by the time the Evening Standard goes to print. yes, there maybe media bias, but the fact is its so easy, because there's no substance. i recall his recent housing policy, i worked out in about 5 minutes its little more than what already happens, certainly nothing radical, it amounted to "we'll build a few more houses".

But you could have said the same about Cameron eight months before the last election. You can certainly say it about Farage who, when pressed on policies other than controlling immigration and withdrawing from the EU, said "Bringing back grammar school" and nothing else. Miliband has made it abundantly clear that details would be provided in time for the next election - as has Farage - but it's only Miliband who gets grief for this.

And it's just not true to say that Miliband is alone among party leaders with levels of disenchantment. There have been a lot of rebellions by Tory MPs (I seem to recall CMD has faced more rebels than any other Tory leader but I'm not certain of that) and it's clear that wide sections of the party genuinely loathe him. And UKIP's one MP made it clear that he disagreed with Farage on HIV patients on the very same day he was elected. But it's only Miliband who gets the abuse.

I do think he has genuine problems in Scotland but I think that most Labour leaders would have those, I certainly don't think they'd not be there if his brother or Balls had been elected instead - it's clear that the Scots are revolting and it will take some effort to bring them back into the fold

 

[The Merry Prankster]

But surely you also recognise that no party leader enjoys universal support from his MPs (apart maybe for Farage who just has the one)!

And I think that they are split over the subject of pig sticking.

 

[Greyrun]

Why do people talk about right wing bias in the press and media.Guardian,Independent and the Mirror are all left of centre as opposed to the Mail,Telegraph,Express and the Sun.The BBC,SKY and ITV do not seem to overtly biased.

 

[Brighton Mod]

Why do people talk about right wing bias in the press and media.Guardian,Independent and the Mirror are all left of centre as opposed to the Mail,Telegraph,Express and the Sun.The BBC,SKY and ITV do not seem to overtly biased.

The BBC's reporting and selection of news items is way left of centre. Milliband would have been given a much rougher ride had they been more to the centre.

 

[Stoo82]

How often prior to this have the energy companies effectively lowered the bills anyway?

Well they do. Almost all the time in the summer. Particularly when the cost oil and gas is low. Like it is now.