General Election 2015

[Buzzer]

But he didnt get in.

He did. He's still there now.

The truth is Tory vote is in long term decline and they have next to no chance of getting a majority this time either.

The same is probably true about Labour too, I reckon. Both parties are guilty of having taken their core support for granted for decades and for being seen to be full of chancers, crooks and career politicians. The rare examples on either side that have the courage of their convictions just aren't acceptable as leaders to the Parliamentary party so both parties have ended up with wallies leading them. And I'm certainly no fan of Gordon Brown but he has more charisma in his little finger than Miliband has in his whole body.

I reckon the belief that Labour and Tory politicians are all the same and just in it for themselves is at an all-time high across the whole of the electorate. I've got no figures to back this up but I feel that voter apathy esp in Labour heartlands is much more damaging long-term than people changing their vote. Voter turnout is consistently higher in Tory areas and get the right leader and the Tories can get their vote back. Get people out of the habit of voting and that's a lot more difficult to win back.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

The truth is Tory vote is in long term decline and they have next to no chance of getting a majority this time either, hence why they are rushing Boris into parliament

You'd better tell Ladbrokes that as they have mistakenly just shortened the Tories from 5/4 to Evens to gain the most seats next May

 

[London Irish]

You'd better tell Ladbrokes that as they have mistakenly just shortened the Tories from 5/4 to Evens to gain the most seats next May

Most seats or a majority?

 

[London Irish]

He did. He's still there now.



The same is probably true about Labour too, I reckon. Both parties are guilty of having taken their core support for granted for decades and for being seen to be full of chancers, crooks and career politicians. The rare examples on either side that have the courage of their convictions just aren't acceptable as leaders to the Parliamentary party so both parties have ended up with wallies leading them. And I'm certainly no fan of Gordon Brown but he has more charisma in his little finger than Miliband has in his whole body.

I reckon the belief that Labour and Tory politicians are all the same and just in it for themselves is at an all-time high across the whole of the electorate. I've got no figures to back this up but I feel that voter apathy esp in Labour heartlands is much more damaging long-term than people changing their vote. Voter turnout is consistently higher in Tory areas and get the right leader and the Tories can get their vote back. Get people out of the habit of voting and that's a lot more difficult to win back.

Well I could quibble with most of that but overall I think the Labour vote is more durable than you think.

I mean check this out - if Labour can get a win here after what happened there, there is pretty much hope for anything

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29850080

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Two important factors to consider before next May

Labour in Scotland - how many seats will they win(compared to the last election?

Still time for UKIP to implode, will the 'core' Tory vote that you say is in decline swing back in time to keep Milliband out?

 

[Buzzer]

I mean check this out - if Labour can get a win here after what happened there, there is pretty much hope for anything

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29850080

I'm not sure that can be seen as anything other than voter apathy in the extreme. % votes was less than 15% and 12% of that was by postal vote... and given that there's an extremely long history of postal vote fraud from that area I'm not surprised at all by these figures in what was, is and always will be a Labour stronghold. As I said, most people think that Labour and Tory are two sides of the same coin and the result is 85% of the electorate not giving a toss about the election.

Scandal or no scandal, I think Labour are more than 'hoping' for political wins in South Yorkshire, it's a given no matter what the election is about.

 

[London Irish]

I'm not sure that can be seen as anything other than voter apathy in the extreme. % votes was less than 15% and 12% of that was by postal vote... and given that there's an extremely long history of postal vote fraud from that area I'm not surprised at all by these figures in what was, is and always will be a Labour stronghold. As I said, most people think that Labour and Tory are two sides of the same coin and the result is 85% of the electorate not giving a toss about the election.

Scandal or no scandal, I think Labour are more than 'hoping' for political wins in South Yorkshire, it's a given no matter what the election is about.

Well, some people do make the case that Labour is as vulnerable to Ukip as the Tories are, I think this puts the lie to that.

And yes I wouldn't want you to mistake me for someone who thinks we have even a half-healthy political system in this country, I agree with you on apathy as I am more Brand than Miliband - but the electoral realities are that splits to the right will harm Cameron more than splits to the left will harm Miliband - Ukip > SNP if you like (though I hope SNP give Miliband a massive hiding up there).

 

[Buzzer]

I am more Brand than Miliband

Really? I didn't have you down as the gullible sort.

 

[Stoo82]

What exactly is so bad about Miliband? Is it because he looks funny? I think he is a better leader than Kinnock and Duncan Smith. I mean Cameron only got in with a bit of luck and he turned out to be ok.

Because he doesn't realize that when he said that if Labour form the next government they will freeze energy prices, this prompted them NOT to lower prices this winter energy company's fear that if Labour win they will have prices that are too low to make any money. Nice one ed.

 

[London Irish]

Really? I didn't have you down as the gullible sort.

Ha, he's much more interesting than you think - this is the kind of stuff he tweets to his 9 million followers (admittedly a million of those will be journalists writing trashing pieces)

http://www.thebaffler.com/odds-and-ends/soak-the-rich

Tickles me much that Brand's young woman fanbase will now have heard of Thomas Piketty

 

[Buzzer]

Ha, he's much more interesting than you think - this is the kind of stuff he tweets to his 9 million followers (admittedly a million of those will be journalists writing trashing pieces)

http://www.thebaffler.com/odds-and-ends/soak-the-rich

Tickles me much that Brand's young woman fanbase will now have heard of Thomas Piketty

I don't doubt he's interesting but I don't think much of his 'philosophy' bears up to much scrutiny. The latest edition of Private Eye has got him bang to rights.

 

[London Irish]

I don't doubt he's interesting but I don't think much of his 'philosophy' bears up to much scrutiny. The latest edition of Private Eye has got him bang to rights.

"Au contraire Buzzy-wuzzy" - to further ruin your Friday afternoon here's your worst nightmare, Palace and a lefty

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...his-critics-have-to-say-about-it-9829224.html

 

[Buzzer]

"Au contraire Buzzy-wuzzy" - to further ruin your Friday afternoon here's your worst nightmare, Palace and a lefty

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...his-critics-have-to-say-about-it-9829224.html

Russell Brand's new book, eh? The one where he urges people to boycott Top Shop because of Philip Green's "unethical tax avoidance"? The one published by Random House...the Random House whose complex tax affairs end up in the Principality of Luxembourg?

 

[London Irish]

Russell Brand's new book, eh? The one where he urges people to boycott Top Shop because of Philip Green's "unethical tax avoidance"? The one published by Random House...the Random House whose complex tax affairs end up in the Principality of Luxembourg?

"Well you’ve got him there, because if he was a proper rebel he’d have written the book in crayon on his ceiling, or spelt the words out using fallen cooking apples so as not to damage the environment" - Mark Steel

 

[jimhigham]

The next election is looking to be hugely interesting for political junkies because of all the new factors at play not seen in the past.

We have UKIP looking set to drain the Tory vote but also take a fair chunk out of Labour in the north. There is the possibility of the Greens increasing their vote share as disaffected left leaning folk leave the LibDems. The Miliband factor looks to be costing Labour badly and they could be destroyed North of the border if recent polls have any credibility.

Pop all of these into the mix and a coalition of some sort seems almost inevitable but it is very hard to gauge who will be the largest party and who will hold the balance of power. While first past the post means that the Greens are unlikely to gain (m)any more seats the current volatility means that we are not a million miles away from having 5 meaningful parties in the mix in England.

We live in interesting times.

 

[Buzzer]

"Well you’ve got him there, because if he was a proper rebel he’d have written the book in crayon on his ceiling, or spelt the words out using fallen cooking apples so as not to damage the environment" - Mark Steel

A very weak apologia. So you're saying that Brand couldn't have found a publisher in this country that pays UK taxes fairly? Not one single ethical publisher to publish a book calling for a more ethical way in life?

Poor old Russell.

 

[jakarta]

The next election is looking to be hugely interesting for political junkies because of all the new factors at play not seen in the past.

We have UKIP looking set to drain the Tory vote but also take a fair chunk out of Labour in the north. There is the possibility of the Greens increasing their vote share as disaffected left leaning folk leave the LibDems. The Miliband factor looks to be costing Labour badly and they could be destroyed North of the border if recent polls have any credibility.

Pop all of these into the mix and a coalition of some sort seems almost inevitable but it is very hard to gauge who will be the largest party and who will hold the balance of power. While first past the post means that the Greens are unlikely to gain (m)any more seats the current volatility means that we are not a million miles away from having 5 meaningful parties in the mix in England.

We live in interesting times.

Personally I'm waiting for the People's Front of Judea to issue their Manifesto.

 

[London Irish]

A very weak apologia. So you're saying that Brand couldn't have found a publisher in this country that pays UK taxes fairly? Not one single ethical publisher?

Poor old Russell.

Hey, if you start a campaign against Random House, I'll support it and the great thing about is Brand is that he probably will too!

Let me know about your first big campaign meeting, I'll be there

 

[Gwylan]

We have UKIP looking set to drain the Tory vote but also take a fair chunk out of Labour in the north.

I don't buy this. There have been surveys that show UKIP gain virtually all their support from disaffected Tories, with very few Labour. Labour's problem is people not voting, not them turning to UKIP. If you look at UKIP's list of 20 target seats, 18 of them are Tory held and only one Labour - it doesn't strike me that UKIP think they're going to hit Labour too hard.

The Miliband factor looks to be costing Labour badly and they could be destroyed North of the border if recent polls have any credibility.

Really don't buy this Tory spin that Milliband is unelectable either. After the election there was much talk of Labour being out of office for 15 years or more (including several threads on here), now, four years later, the party's ahead in the polls and the talk is that it's because the leadership is poor that they're not further ahead.

You can tell the likes of the Mail and the Sun are really rattled by Miliband because of the way they spin this weak leadership nonsense. I do admit that he does have a problem in Scotland though but I don't think that's because he's weak - there are a multitude of issues at play there (and it probably doesn't help that the last three leaders have been Scottish and the one before that, Welsh).

While first past the post means that the Greens are unlikely to gain (m)any more seats .

Labour have been given a big helping hand by the BBC's decision to exclude the Greens from the debate. I wonder what the publicity would have done for the Green vote

 

[jimhigham]

Labour have been given a big helping hand by the BBC's decision to exclude the Greens from the debate. I wonder what the publicity would have done for the Green vote

I'm not at all sure that we will even see debates. Cameron has nothing to gain by entering into them. He was ambushed by Clegg in the debates during the last election cycle and I suspect that he would struggle contain Farage this time around.

I never said that Miliband was unelectable but I think it is too simplistic to suggest that his polling woes are solely a media creation. While it is only anecdotal I know of very few people, including firm Labour supporters, who feel confident about his prospects.

Returning to my theme, I can't imagine that Miliband will particularly want to engage in debates either. His popularity ratings are very low and his advisors must know that it is a real risk taking on televised debates when he is still currently poised to be the leader of the largest party when the dust has settled.

I would be far from surprised if both Cameron and Miliband made mood music about wanting a debate but that they simply "could not reach an agreement" and end up vetoing the whole thing, as they are not yet embedded as an election norm.