General Election 2015

[Westdene Seagull]

It will be a carve up and hopefully Farage will have some sort of say in what happens in the event of a hung parliament.......it will be the ONLY time he has any say mind you, If the foaming at the mouth Kippers get any sort of control we will be royally going to hell in a handcart.

Yes well done, nice bit of night fishing !

 

[seagulls4ever]

Other polls:

Populus: CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%.
YouGov/Sun: CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%.
ComRes/Indy telephone poll: CON 29%(+1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 12%(+3), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 5%(-2).

 

[Buzzer]

Lord Ashcroft latest polls for Brighton Pavilion:

Green 38%
Lab 28%
Con 21%
UKIP 8%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 1%

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/1...t-labour-final-marginals-poll-2014/#more-7089
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Brighton-Pavilion-Data-tables-Dec-14.pdf

 

[BLOCK F]

That's a big Labour majority but I'm still hoping for the Labour-SNP dream ticket

Nightmare, more like.

 

[Machiavelli]

Lord Ashcroft latest polls for Brighton Pavilion:

Green 38%
Lab 28%
Con 21%
UKIP 8%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 1%

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/1...t-labour-final-marginals-poll-2014/#more-7089
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Brighton-Pavilion-Data-tables-Dec-14.pdf

Thanks for this Buzzer. We're a bright lot round these parts.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Lord Ashcroft latest polls for Brighton Pavilion:

Green 38%
Lab 28%
Con 21%
UKIP 8%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 1%

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/1...t-labour-final-marginals-poll-2014/#more-7089
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Brighton-Pavilion-Data-tables-Dec-14.pdf

Good post, see the Yellows are down to 5% and last election in Lewes polled 52%...they share a boundary don't they? If so must be some sort of record difference & poss why Baker is running scared?

 

[London Irish]

Nightmare, more like.

For the elitists and trust funders, sure

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Lord Ashcroft latest polls for Brighton Pavilion:

Green 38%
Lab 28%
Con 21%
UKIP 8%
Lib Dem 5%
Other 1%

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/1...t-labour-final-marginals-poll-2014/#more-7089
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Brighton-Pavilion-Data-tables-Dec-14.pdf

Local polling by both parties have them neck and neck

 

[Buzzer]

Local polling by both parties have them neck and neck

I'd wager that Lord Ashcroft's polling is slightly more sophisticated and a tad more independent.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I'd wager that Lord Ashcroft's polling is slightly more sophisticated and a tad more independent.

Ashcroft's poll would have only been from about 1,000 responses , the local parties on the ground will be gauging the percentages throughout the entire constituency on a much larger basis. The only worthwhile statistics are those known after the event because predictions and forecasts can still go tits up.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Local polling by both parties have them neck and neck

I'm struggling to see anything but a Green victory in Brighton.

 

[Buzzer]

Ashcroft's poll would have only been from about 1,000 responses , the local parties on the ground will be gauging the percentages throughout the entire constituency on a much larger basis. The only worthwhile statistics are those known after the event because predictions and forecasts can still go tits up.

I don't think that's entirely true. Ashcroft has far greater resources at his disposal, he's also got a professional team of statisticians who publish their questions, their results and the various weightings with the reasoning behind them. People from all parties take Ashcroft's polls very seriously and it wouldn't surprise me if the likes of Labour HQ put more store behind these results than canvassing by their local party members. Even something as simple as saying "Hi, I'm conducting a poll on behalf of your local Labour Party..." can skew opinions let alone leading and/or loaded questions, and then you've got to take into account how the data is collected and interpreted. I sincerely doubt they have the same expertise locally.

 

[Diablo]

Can we amalgamate this with the Harveys Post.......And invite Nigel Farage as proffesional Beer drinker and Ukip leader to comment.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Latest Ipsos/Mori poll has the Tories back in front with a 3% lead.

 

[melias shoes]

Latest Ipsos/Mori poll has the Tories back in front with a 3% lead.

It's going to be swings and roundabouts right up to the election. That's the only poll that counts.

 

[Greyrun]

Telegraph has the Tories in the lead by 4% over Labour whilst UKIP has dropped 20 points to 13%.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

I'd wager that Lord Ashcroft's polling is slightly more sophisticated and a tad more independent.

Given the unpopularity of the green council is the strong polling entirely down to Caroline Lucas do you think?

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Telegraph has the Tories in the lead by 4% over Labour whilst UKIP has dropped 20 points to 13%.

I've been saying for months that the election will be decided by how many who voted UKIP at the European elections drift back to the Tories.

Enough and they'll probably be the largest party. Otherwise it's Ed.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Telegraph has the Tories in the lead by 4% over Labour whilst UKIP has dropped 20 points to 13%.

Golly UKIP were on 33% I think that alarming drop is actually Nigel's own personality rating rather than the party support.

 

[Buzzer]

Given the unpopularity of the green council is the strong polling entirely down to Caroline Lucas do you think?

Got to be, hasn't it? What do you reckon?