General Election 2015

[brakespear]

I shall stay up as long as I feel able to - not all night though as I have work the next day

 

[jimbob5]

And the Greens

The point is, everyone will rant on about it but when it comes to having a chance to change, they'll be totally disinterested. Idiots.

 

[Gwylan]

when it comes to having a chance to change, they'll be totally disinterested

Uninterested

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It was. PR comes in many forms. it was considered a compromise because a purer form of PR would be too unpalatable.

I thought it was a "preferential" system which I thought was different to what is commonly referred to as PR?

 

[Stato]

Interesting that Cameron has today questioned the legitimacy of a government led by a party leader who does not have the most seats. Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the aftermath of the 1974 election. The incumbent Tory Edward Heath had 4 seats less than Labour's Harold Wilson:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974

"Heath did not resign immediately as Prime Minister. Assuming that Northern Ireland's Unionist MPs could be persuaded to support a Conservative government on confidence matters over one led by Wilson, he entered into negotiations with (Jeremy) Thorpe to form a coalition government. Thorpe, never enthusiastic about supporting the Conservatives, demanded major electoral reforms in exchange for such an agreement. Unwilling to accept such terms, Heath resigned and Wilson returned for his second spell as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom."

It seems quite clear that, despite the politicking, if no majority is gained, Cameron can try first to form a government whether he comes first or second, just as his Tory predecessor did. If he cannot, anyone else can try. The arguments about legitimacy are nonsense and will only be made if Fleet Street does not get the result its owners want.

 

[pb21]

Interesting that Cameron has today questioned the legitimacy of a government led by a party leader who does not have the most seats. Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the aftermath of the 1974 election. The incumbent Tory Edward Heath had 4 seats less than Labour's Harold Wilson:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974

"Heath did not resign immediately as Prime Minister. Assuming that Northern Ireland's Unionist MPs could be persuaded to support a Conservative government on confidence matters over one led by Wilson, he entered into negotiations with (Jeremy) Thorpe to form a coalition government. Thorpe, never enthusiastic about supporting the Conservatives, demanded major electoral reforms in exchange for such an agreement. Unwilling to accept such terms, Heath resigned and Wilson returned for his second spell as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom."

It seems quite clear that, despite the politicking, if no majority is gained, Cameron can try first to form a government whether he comes first or second, just as his Tory predecessor did. If he cannot, anyone else can try. The arguments about legitimacy are nonsense and will only be made if Fleet Street does not get the result its owners want.

Indeed.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...more-seats-labour-get-ready-very-british-coup

 

[Wrong-Direction]

It is though. 99% of the time, politics bores the arse off most people. This is the only time you actually get to see anything remotely interesting. The sight of some smug faced, over-confident incumbent MP who's held a seat for decades realising he's just been turfed out in favour of a bright young upstart is always a joy, no matter who you vote for. Or one of the big names failing. There's a decent chance- so I read, I'm by no means an expert- that Nigel Farage won't win the South Thanet seat he's targeting (I must say, I'd assumed he'd be a dead cert to win). Given the huge publicity he's enjoyed throughout this campaign, and the fact that he's his party leader, the outcome of that particular vote will be fascinating. IMHO, like.

Hmmm each to their own

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Will there be a live stream...

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Hmmm each to their own

Have one of my bananas and chill-out

 

[beorhthelm]

The arguments about legitimacy are nonsense and will only be made if Fleet Street does not get the result its owners want.

to be fair, the arguments will be made because its good for filling column inches and airtime. as you say there are precedents and from reading/watching this week its pretty clear there are procedures and protocol in place , its just lots of huff and puff on all sides.

whats more interesting is how long the predicted Labour/SNP not-an-agreement will last. i watched last night as a SNP rep stated a couple of times that Labour will not put forward a Queens speech the SNP do not support. that sort of assumption to how matters will be proceeding is what is going to create genuine debate, of who is really in charge of that alliance.

 

[Titanic]

Final Opinium poll (04 - 05 May):

CON - 35% (-)
LAB - 34% (-)
UKIP - 12% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (-)
GRN - 6% (+1)

It would appear that Ed has squandered his seven point lead somehow.

 

[Gwylan]

It would appear that Ed has squandered his seven point lead somehow.

How? I don't think you understand how opinion polls work

 

[ROSM]

Final Opinium poll (04 - 05 May):

CON - 35% (-)
LAB - 34% (-)
UKIP - 12% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (-)
GRN - 6% (+1)

It would appear that Ed has squandered his seven point lead somehow.

Leads in opinion polls pre an election always greatly favour the opposition, which in this instance was great for trolling and winding up the toffs and tories on nsc

What we have now is a view and theme that consistently puts cons 1% ahead in most polls with one or two outliers and a few level

All within the 3% margin of error. There hasn't been a late surge to the status quo BUT there are many more undecided at this stage than I'm previous.

So given undecideds normally go 2:1 to the incumbent on a 2 party system, you can expect to see tories get most votes and maybe just more seats. My prediction is;

Tories 36%, Labour 33, ukip 14, lib dem 11 others 6

Seats would mean

Cons 285, Labour 278, snp 39, lib dems 30, green 1, ukip 2 others 15

I'm other words lib dems to avoid meltdown and snp to do slightly worse than polling a la Clegg mania last time

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

Polls mean very little this time.

It will come down to:

How many seats in Scotland Labour hold on to (my guess is more than is currently estimated)

How many marginals the Tories lose to Labour as a result of UKIP

How many seats the Lib Dems lose (to both Labour and the Tories)

 

[Stato]

to be fair, the arguments will be made because its good for filling column inches and airtime. as you say there are precedents and from reading/watching this week its pretty clear there are procedures and protocol in place , its just lots of huff and puff on all sides.

whats more interesting is how long the predicted Labour/SNP not-an-agreement will last. i watched last night as a SNP rep stated a couple of times that Labour will not put forward a Queens speech the SNP do not support. that sort of assumption to how matters will be proceeding is what is going to create genuine debate, of who is really in charge of that alliance.

I am sure that, if they get the chance to put forward a queen's speech, Labour would be very careful not to present something which it does not feel it could win a vote on. However, whilst Milliband has made a hostage to fortune by saying he will not deal with the SNP, Sturgeon has done the same by saying that her party will not shore up the tories. Should Labour put forward a queen's speech having had no discussion, the SNP would have some serious thinking to do before deciding to vote against. They would need to be absolutely convinced that they would not be blamed by the electorate.

However I think it would be irresponsible of Milliband not to speak to them. Completely ignoring the wishes of the SNP, could be seen by the Scots as disenfranchising Scotland. This would be tantamount to admitting that the Union is over.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

However I think it would be irresponsible of Milliband not to speak to them. Completely ignoring the wishes of the SNP, could be seen by the Scots as disenfranchising Scotland. This would be tantamount to admitting that the Union is over.

Good point - but having been so explicit that he wouldn't talk/deal with them, or be propped up by them, he simply couldn't do it.

 

[Ernest]

It will be a sad day for British democracy if a few non dom foreigners owning British newspapers try and influence the result of the election

 

[ROSM]

Good point - but having been so explicit that he wouldn't talk/deal with them, or be propped up by them, he simply couldn't do it.

He said no coalition or confidence and supply. So that only leaves issue by issue which is how snp ran Scotland as a minority between 2007 and 2011. It means a lot of talking to a lot of people. Interesting democracy

 

[London Irish]

Cold hearted marxist barsteward though I am, I'm beginning to feel sorry for this bint

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gen...ative-MPs-garden-with-1300-litres-of-oil.html

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Cold hearted marxist barsteward though I am, I'm beginning to feel sorry for this bint

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gen...ative-MPs-garden-with-1300-litres-of-oil.html

Hmmmmmm. No comment.

(Joke at the expense of my knobbish-comment last week)