General Election 2015

[Stumpy Tim]

This points irks me. For around eleven years, Labour led the country at a time where the economy was absolutely booming (helped by much needed investment in infrastructure), the deficit and debt as a share of GDP was lower than what they inherited, for a couple of years we were even operating a surplus and everything was going pretty well... Until the global financial crisis. The problem we had was a total over reliance on a financial sector which was deregulated more and more as time passed by- all endorsed by the Conservatives. In reality, I'm not sure economic policy would be that different between the two parties.

Now, that's not to say the last Labour Government were perfect because they weren't at all. I have issues with some of their economic policy (selling off the gold early and declaring the end of boom and bust was surely extremely short-sighted) and certainly some of their defence (military involvement with the Middle East) and social policy (working tax credit amongst other things, hasty introduction of the winter fuel allowance as opposed to an increase in pensions) but I feel they were not as economically inept at the Tories make out, and I don't think things would have turned out much differently if there was a Conservative government in that time period.

Indeed. Let's also not forget that some of the biggest economic cock-ups have been under the Conservative's. The Beeching cuts in the 1960's, the closure of the mining industry has come back to bite us, selling off the council houses cheaply... it's not just Labour who have made economic mistakes.

The reality is that people make mistakes - we all do. No government will ever be 100% correct.

 

[Ernest]

Indeed. Let's also not forget that some of the biggest economic cock-ups have been under the Conservative's. The Beeching cuts in the 1960's, the closure of the mining industry has come back to bite us, selling off the council houses cheaply... it's not just Labour who have made economic mistakes.

The reality is that people make mistakes - we all do. No government will ever be 100% correct.

Black Wednesday

 

[Titanic]

2 weeks to go to the most interesting election day/night in years

Indeed... I particularly am looking forward to results from Scotland... Paisley and Renfrewshire South, East Renfrewshire etc...

 

[beorhthelm]

This points irks me. For around eleven years, Labour led the country at a time where the economy was absolutely booming (helped by much needed investment in infrastructure), the deficit and debt as a share of GDP was lower than what they inherited, for a couple of years we were even operating a surplus and everything was going pretty well... Until the global financial crisis. The problem we had was a total over reliance on a financial sector which was deregulated more and more as time passed by- all endorsed by the Conservatives. In reality, I'm not sure economic policy would be that different between the two parties.

two problems with this narrative. the start of the story ignores the impact Kenneth Clarke's budget projections and a raft of one off tax raids at the beginning (the gold is frankly a populist boot note, the pension raid raising 5billion a year at the cost of pension funding was a much bigger issue). that's the surpluses accounted for. the second is that despite investment, and PFI (taking lot of public spending off the balance sheet) they still managed to run up deficits peaking at 42bn mid decade. it fell back to 32bn the following year, but started to rise again and was projected to rise substantially as we went to the end of the decade. "end of boom and bust" meant Brown believed he could run a substantial deficit for ever, meaning the country would *never* be able to run down the debt.

another issue that irks me, the "reliance on financial sector": this isn't a bad thing, its a specialism we do well on a global scale, and at 16% its not like its that big. its smaller than retail or real estate sectors for example. another country might suffer if it has substantially large economic sector, say car manufacturing, and the demand for that fell.

 

[synavm]

No idea how it's all going to pan out, it's so unpredictable. I'd say both of the largest parties are going to look to form a coalition with the Lib Dems as a priority should they have enough seats between them. Assuming they do have enough seats (which is a big assumption), the Lib Dems would probably go with the party with the most seats. If the Lib Dems don't have enough seats (which is probably the most likely scenario), I'd say you're probably in minority Government territory, which would get very messy indeed. It's going to get very interesting!

If I had to bet now, I'd say a minority Labour Government backed by the SNP on a vote by vote basis is the most likely scenario. I'd also say said Government would end up dissolved long before 2020.

 

[synavm]

two problems with this narrative. the start of the story ignores the impact Kenneth Clarke's budget projections and a raft of one off tax raids at the beginning (the gold is frankly a populist boot note, the pension raid raising 5billion a year at the cost of pension funding was a much bigger issue). that's the surpluses accounted for. the second is that despite investment, and PFI (taking lot of public spending off the balance sheet) they still managed to run up deficits peaking at 42bn mid decade. it fell back to 32bn the following year, but started to rise again and was projected to rise substantially as we went to the end of the decade. "end of boom and bust" meant Brown believed he could run a substantial deficit for ever, meaning the country would *never* be able to run down the debt.

another issue that irks me, the "reliance on financial sector": this isn't a bad thing, its a specialism we do well on a global scale, and at 16% its not like its that big. its smaller than retail or real estate sectors for example. another country might suffer if it has substantially large economic sector, say car manufacturing, and the demand for that fell.

Either way, the deficit you mention there is running at a lower percentage of GDP than most developed countries operate at- I'd say it's higher than most would like, but it's manageable (and without looking at the figures, surely military involvement in the Middle East contributed to the increased deficit before the recession). It's total spin on the part of the Tories to say Labour bankrupted the country all on their own.

 

[Silk]

making the odd mistake in one of his first budgets 4 years ago having just inherited a bankrupt country with "there is no money left" from labour. and now look at the country, not only the fastest growing economy in the western world, creating more jobs in the uk than the whole rest of the EU...... heres some facts, the poorest are paying much less in tax now than under labour, the gap between richest and poorest has shortened, it was higher under labour. in the same period Osbourne made a couple of mistakes in a budget years ago, Labours chief economic brains (that had just recently bankrupted the country) predicted every single one of George Osbournes plans would not work and would create mass unemployment, would result in recession and no growth. Unsuprisingly every single forecast was hopelessly wrong.

When it comes to economic competence Labour don't have a leg to stand on because they dont understand economics, they understand borrowing, debt and taxes, they believe governments create jobs and not business, and every time a Labour government is let near the states finances it always always ends up in massive debts, high taxes and bankruptcy with our kids having thousands heaped onto their shoulders from Labours gratuitous over spending.

This government as unpalatable as it may be has done a lot more for my baby son in trying to clean up Labours mess and it's made more low earners have more in their pocket to provide for their families. And for for all labours promises, its all garbage until they learn the art of running a country within its means, creating growth without growing deficits. Otherwise its credit card economics that will always end up in everyone suffering, the poorest the most when the day to pay it all back comes.

Omnishambles I dont like Osbourne but his record is spectacular as also agreed by the head of the IMF and just about every respectable independent body.... except of course the incompetent snearing idiots that created the problems, rubbished all proposals to rectify their mistakes, predicted none of what has worked would work and cant give credit to those that created record unemployment and more jobs.

I do give credit to Labour for having a social concience, creating the NHS and theyre not all bad or not well meaning.... but they have no right to critisise Osbournes miraculous economic recovery, on the back of the disaster they left behind or to try and pretend that the current `Tory party is the same as Thatchers, it isnt. Thatchers was nasty, but the current bunch are far removed and have reinvented much (of course that doenst suit Labour who will always hate and try and rubbish everything regardless of truth - Labour also needs also to reinvent itself, it hasn't learned anything from its recent mistakes) its a statistical fact this Tory/Lid Dem has done more to to lessen the inequality gap, will raise the minimum wage more, has given everyone a payrise by raising the personal allowance by 4 grand and taken many out of tax. This lat government built more social housing that the labour government, strange but true......and the real nasty party is the party that leaves economic calamity and mismanagement to be paid for by all citizens of the country, including the poor. Where debt interest is more per year than we spend on education.

So keep to the lies, spin and PR, there's not much substance is there?

Former Labour voter in 97 01 and 05

The country was nowhere near bankrupt, why must people tell these lies?

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

Well its getting closer, the ballot papers have just arrived and Caroline's about to register a postal vote.

I was surprised the amount of candidates that are standing that don't live here.

 

[Ernest]

Indeed... I particularly am looking forward to results from Scotland... Paisley and Renfrewshire South, East Renfrewshire etc...

The Wirral for me but whatever our allegiances it will be a night of dramatic TV with far reaching consequences

 

[Gwylan]

Well its getting closer, the ballot papers have just arrived and Caroline's about to register a postal vote.
I was surprised the amount of candidates that are standing that don't live here.

It's definitely getting close. Mrs Gwylan, who's standing for councillor, received a load of bumf from the chief executive yesterday about what happens if she's elected (there's little danger of that though).

But I also noticed how few of the local would-be councillors lived in the area

 

[peterward]

Indeed. Let's also not forget that some of the biggest economic cock-ups have been under the Conservative's. The Beeching cuts in the 1960's, the closure of the mining industry has come back to bite us, selling off the council houses cheaply... it's not just Labour who have made economic mistakes.

The reality is that people make mistakes - we all do. No government will ever be 100% correct.

Right to buy is something the left fought against and now embrace and agree with. Giving people the right to buy the home they may have lived in for years was always a good thing..... The problem is how to replace \ rebuild what was lost.

Mining, now there's an interesting subject... No doubt everyone's memory remembers the Thatcher Scargill struggle, but it's a little known fact more pits were closed and miners mafe redundant under the previous 70's labour government than finally under thatcher. Scargill wanted to bring down thatcher. Labour made more miners unemployed than the Tory's as my ex 58 year old ex leceistershire 3rd generation miner colleague never tires of telling me.

What irks is not whether thatcher is right or wrong or Scargill right or wrong its the rampant hypocrisy. The same hypocrisy that currently tries to blame the Tory's for privitising the NHS (by 1%) from a labour party who first privatised parts of the nhs (by 5%)
@Synavum I agree and disagree, the boom in the early noughties was built mainly on cheap personal debt, equity release et all, debt fuelled growth is perceived. The gold sell off was a massive mistake and then brown bought a lot of Japanese yen with the money and that tanked.

It wasn't the global crisis that caused our country to bankruptcy, in 2007 in the election that never was, when milliband and balls both urged brown to go to the polls before brown bottled. Both Alistair darling and balls urged brown as they could see financial calamity with UK finances around the corner. The banking crisis (after massive deregulation under labour) deepened the crash in the UK, it did not cause it.
[MENTION=1416]Ernest[/MENTION] yes the exchange rate mechanism was a massive schoolboy error that drove interest rates to unaffordable levels for many. That was over 2 decades ago. Over 3 decades ago the country was bankrupted in 79 also.

I voted labour 3 times and I could again, if maybe David milliband was leader.

I genuinely believe the majority of the country are centrist, maybe a bit left like new labour or a bit right like the tories,. They're not hard left like current labour or old labour and not hard right like thatcher or ukip. Labours lurch to left was an error. They don't lack social conscience but fiscal prudence underpins everything unless you don't care about any consequences. The economy is only the most important part because every other public service relies on money. We can borrow but that's not a long term answer as it has to be paid as does interest.

Bring back something more akin to new labour (centrist) and I'll be all ears.

 

[peterward]

The country was nowhere near bankrupt, why must people tell these lies?

The famous note in the treasury "sorry there is no money left" summed up the arrogance of the previous government. We were on the verge of bankruptcy. We had ability to borrow. We had a huge deficit (as I'm sure you're aware means our spending far exceeds our income and we cannot survive without borrowing). If these circumstances were in your personal life you'd be bankrupt. We were surviving on the UK credit card so to speak

 

[Silk]

The famous note in the treasury "sorry there is no money left" summed up the arrogance of the previous government. We were on the verge of bankruptcy. We had ability to borrow. We had a huge deficit (as I'm sure you're aware means our spending far exceeds our income and we cannot survive without borrowing). If these circumstances were in your personal life you'd be bankrupt. We were surviving on the UK credit card so to speak

So were we bankrupt, on the verge of bankruptcy, or something else? Make your mind up.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Well its getting closer, the ballot papers have just arrived and Caroline's about to register a postal vote.

I was surprised the amount of candidates that are standing that don't live here.

Hopefully you'll get a cell next to me and we can talk Albion?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The famous note in the treasury "sorry there is no money left" summed up the arrogance of the previous government. We were on the verge of bankruptcy. We had ability to borrow. We had a huge deficit (as I'm sure you're aware means our spending far exceeds our income and we cannot survive without borrowing). If these circumstances were in your personal life you'd be bankrupt. We were surviving on the UK credit card so to speak

I thought this was a traditional joke which every outgoing treasury does?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The Wirral for me but whatever our allegiances it will be a night of dramatic TV with far reaching consequences

Agree. I usually stay up to watch it all unfold as well. '97 was particularly good as I headed off to Hereford the following day.

 

[synavm]

It wasn't the global crisis that caused our country to bankruptcy, in 2007 in the election that never was, when milliband and balls both urged brown to go to the polls before brown bottled. Both Alistair darling and balls urged brown as they could see financial calamity with UK finances around the corner. The banking crisis (after massive deregulation under labour) deepened the crash in the UK, it did not cause it.

Fair point on economic growth being built on debt, but again, much of the developed world was doing this and I really couldn't see the Tories doing anything different, indeed some argue that John Major triggered the economic growth.

My main disagreement is down to the cause of the crisis. 2007 coincided with the beginning of the subprime mortgage crisis (really the main root cause of the crash) and of course we were only officially in recession in 2008. Perhaps Miliband, Balls and Darling could see the writing on the wall.

In total agreement on a slightly more centrist Labour Party. I'll likely find myself voting Labour anyway, but I'd much prefer to see someone like David Miliband or even better Chukka Umuna leading the party.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

making the odd mistake in one of his first budgets 4 years ago having just inherited a bankrupt country with "there is no money left" from labour. and now look at the country, not only the fastest growing economy in the western world, creating more jobs in the uk than the whole rest of the EU...... heres some facts, the poorest are paying much less in tax now than under labour, the gap between richest and poorest has shortened, it was higher under labour. in the same period Osbourne made a couple of mistakes in a budget years ago, Labours chief economic brains (that had just recently bankrupted the country) predicted every single one of George Osbournes plans would not work and would create mass unemployment, would result in recession and no growth. Unsuprisingly every single forecast was hopelessly wrong.

When it comes to economic competence Labour don't have a leg to stand on because they dont understand economics, they understand borrowing, debt and taxes, they believe governments create jobs and not business, and every time a Labour government is let near the states finances it always always ends up in massive debts, high taxes and bankruptcy with our kids having thousands heaped onto their shoulders from Labours gratuitous over spending.

This government as unpalatable as it may be has done a lot more for my baby son in trying to clean up Labours mess and it's made more low earners have more in their pocket to provide for their families. And for for all labours promises, its all garbage until they learn the art of running a country within its means, creating growth without growing deficits. Otherwise its credit card economics that will always end up in everyone suffering, the poorest the most when the day to pay it all back comes.

Omnishambles I dont like Osbourne but his record is spectacular as also agreed by the head of the IMF and just about every respectable independent body.... except of course the incompetent snearing idiots that created the problems, rubbished all proposals to rectify their mistakes, predicted none of what has worked would work and cant give credit to those that created record unemployment and more jobs.

I do give credit to Labour for having a social concience, creating the NHS and theyre not all bad or not well meaning.... but they have no right to critisise Osbournes miraculous economic recovery, on the back of the disaster they left behind or to try and pretend that the current `Tory party is the same as Thatchers, it isnt. Thatchers was nasty, but the current bunch are far removed and have reinvented much (of course that doenst suit Labour who will always hate and try and rubbish everything regardless of truth - Labour also needs also to reinvent itself, it hasn't learned anything from its recent mistakes) its a statistical fact this Tory/Lid Dem has done more to to lessen the inequality gap, will raise the minimum wage more, has given everyone a payrise by raising the personal allowance by 4 grand and taken many out of tax. This lat government built more social housing that the labour government, strange but true......and the real nasty party is the party that leaves economic calamity and mismanagement to be paid for by all citizens of the country, including the poor. Where debt interest is more per year than we spend on education.

So keep to the lies, spin and PR, there's not much substance is there?

Former Labour voter in 97 01 and 05

I think this is one of the most short-sighted posts I have ever seen on here.

I am not an economist, but I know enough to know that debt is a perfectly acceptable part of the running of a nation's economy in the eyes of most economists.

We may have the fastest growing economy blah blah blah, but what about all the suffering that people have gone through to make it happen. and I am not just talking about people who have had their benefits cut - although I could come up with some VERY REAL tales of woe from my own experience where people have just been treated like pieces of smelly brown stuff by the system. A lot of members of my family work in Public Services, and the intolerable mess that has been made over the last five years is staggering - My Brother-in-Law is a Senior prosecutor in the Crown Prosecution Service and the office he works out of in the West Country is being closed soon. The cuts being made there and in the Police cast serious doubts on our ability to bring people to justice in the future. My wife is a very senior manager in Higher Education, and the treatment of people and institutions that are doing an excellent job - and are acknowledged as doing an excellent job - is disgusting. I have a brother-in-law who is a very senior doctor and a daughter who is a doctor and they both are very rude about recent reforms, and neither of them are bolshy maverick types.

In terms of comparing this government to Thatcher, my own view is that they are far, far worse. I fear they are hiding behind the austerity thing to fulfil the ideological dream of dismantling the Public Services.

I could go on, but the pain that so many people have been put through over the last 5 years shows me that I will do exactly this time what I have done for the last 43 years, since I turned 18, and that is not vote Conservative. I could no more vote Tory than I could cut off my own leg with a rusty penknife.

Rant over - I feel better for that.

 

[Ernest]

Agree. I usually stay up to watch it all unfold as well. '97 was particularly good as I headed off to Hereford the following day.

That was a fantastic weekend all round

 

[Machiavelli]

This points irks me. For around eleven years, Labour led the country at a time where the economy was absolutely booming (helped by much needed investment in infrastructure), the deficit and debt as a share of GDP was lower than what they inherited, for a couple of years we were even operating a surplus and everything was going pretty well... Until the global financial crisis. The problem we had was a total over reliance on a financial sector which was deregulated more and more as time passed by- all endorsed by the Conservatives. In reality, I'm not sure economic policy would be that different between the two parties.

Now, that's not to say the last Labour Government were perfect because they weren't at all. I have issues with some of their economic policy (selling off the gold early and declaring the end of boom and bust was surely extremely short-sighted) and certainly some of their defence (military involvement with the Middle East) and social policy (working tax credit amongst other things, hasty introduction of the winter fuel allowance as opposed to an increase in pensions) but I feel they were not as economically inept at the Tories make out, and I don't think things would have turned out much differently if there was a Conservative government in that time period.

You're quite right, and [MENTION=15046]peterward[/MENTION] acknowledges as much by indicating that he voted Labour in 97, 01 and 05. Labour had economic credibility and popularity for a long time. The Tories in addition weren't advocating cuts until some time after the recession, so I refuse to buy in to this 'Labour wrecked the economy, Osborne restored it/chaos vs competence' narrative. There were some of us indicating while Brown was claiming (and others were agreeing) that there would be no more boom and bust. Capitalism has achieved growth. It has also been beset by crises, and these crises are all the more pronounced when heavily deregulated (2008, 1929 being perfect illustrations).