General Election 2015

[pastafarian]

I've never heard of English Democrats. Pretty sure I'd have noticed if they had a candidate here.

i think their candidates are mostly around yorkshire,i expect a small surge in their popularity when the SNP meddling in westminster becomes tiresome

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Populus was the first of the polls to be released today , I wonder why it wasn't posted by [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] ?

LAB moves to 2% lead with Populus
Lab 34 (nc) Con 32 (-1) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 15 (+1)

 

[n1 gull]

Ashcroft National Poll, 17-19 April:

CON 34% (+1)
LAB 30% (-3)
UKIP 13% (-)
LDEM 10% (+1)
GRN 4% (-2)

I am not surprised by this poll. The IMF report plus good unemployment numbers must start to make a difference, let alone that daft bint from Scotland applying for the Nick Clegg job

 

[Silk]

The Guardian...... must be true then.

It's a poll, you idiot, not the Guardian's opinion!

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

The Guardian...... must be true then.

Mike Smithson [MENTION=20472]msmith[/MENTION]sonPB · 2h 2 hours ago

Before the application of ICM's DK adjuster LAB and CON were level-pegging. This allocates half of DKs to what they did in 2010


*DK = Dont Knows , not Dick Knight

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I am not surprised by this poll. The IMF report plus good unemployment numbers must start to make a difference, let alone that daft bint from Scotland applying for the Nick Clegg job

The unemployment figures can be skewed by the DWP going above the set target for sanctioning claimants on JSA. It might come down to how many voters are scared of Nicola Krankie , the same ICM poll sees 41% preferring Dodgy Dave in power propped up by Nasty Nick , Nefarious Nigel and the DUP and 39% preferring Red Ed in power propped up by Nasty Nick , Nicola Krankie and PC

 

[Ernest]

I doubt Farage's 1 or 2 MP's will make much difference to forming a coalition and Cameron's only hope is the LibDems prop him up if they have enough seats, if the DUP do then you get the same scenario as what they're saying about Labour and the SNP and Cameron etc would never be hypocritical and do that would they ?

 

[Simster]

I doubt Farage's 1 or 2 MP's will make much difference to forming a coalition and Cameron's only hope is the LibDems prop him up if they have enough seats, if the DUP do then you get the same scenario as what they're saying about Labour and the SNP and Cameron etc would never be hypocritical and do that would they ?

How is a loose pact with a unionist party "the same scenario" as a loose pact with a nationalist party whose raison d'etre is to break up the union?



Onto a wider point, the polls are so changeable and so close that they don't really mean anything any more. The 1-2% changes are going to mean nothing when you consider this is a first past the post constituency election. I'd like to see the polls in the handful of marginal seats that are going to determine what form of government we get.

 

[Machiavelli]

Mike Smithson [MENTION=20472]msmith[/MENTION]sonPB · 2h 2 hours ago

Before the application of ICM's DK adjuster LAB and CON were level-pegging. This allocates half of DKs to what they did in 2010


*DK = Dont Knows , not Dick Knight

Without claiming any real knowledge of the mechanics of polling, this seems to be a highly dubious application of DKs. Whereas this is the kind of thing that wouldn't be posted by [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION]:

With just over two weeks to go to election day I asked people whether they were moving towards or away from each of the main parties. Swing voters, who say they don’t know how they will vote or that they may yet change their minds, were more likely to say they were moving towards Labour (35%) than the Conservatives (24%) or the Lib Dems (19%). A higher proportion of voters said they were moving towards the three established parties, and fewer said they were moving away, than was the case when I last asked this question in July 2014. The reverse was true for UKIP

 

[Machiavelli]

How is a loose pact with a unionist party "the same scenario" as a loose pact with a nationalist party whose raison d'etre is to break up the union?



Onto a wider point, the polls are so changeable and so close that they don't really mean anything any more. The 1-2% changes are going to mean nothing when you consider this is a first past the post constituency election. I'd like to see the polls in the handful of marginal seats that are going to determine what form of government we get.

The best we've got on this front is Ashcroft, and his marginal polling is looking good for Labour. That said, I've two concerns with Ashcroft:
1, his national polling seems to be out of kilter with the other pollsters, and tends to enlarge the Tory vote
2, the majority of constituency polls he's been revealing of late are in Scotland. This seems a little bit like mischief-making, whereby he's only revealing those polls that are problematic for Labour.

But, broadly, I agree. The polls are a little bit volatile of late, but don't really break out of the long-run trend of putting the Tories and Labour more-or-less neck-and-neck. What matters is what goes on in the 80 to 100 marginals, and especially the CON-LAB marginals.

 

[crookie]

How many seats will change hands in 2015? Only twice in the elections since 1950 have more than 100 seats changed hands. In 1997, it was 184 seats, and in 2010 it was 115 seats. So it’s a reasonable to expect about 100 seats will change hands in the next election. If 100 seats change hands, it means that 550 seats will remain the same, 85% of the seats will have an MP selected, not elected.http://radicalsoapbox.com/85-votes-worthless/

Sad that for 85% of us, our once every 5 year vote to decide who governs us is worthless. Whatever the downside to PR, surely we can do better than this ?

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

The best we've got on this front is Ashcroft, and his marginal polling is looking good for Labour. That said, I've two concerns with Ashcroft:
1, his national polling seems to be out of kilter with the other pollsters, and tends to enlarge the Tory vote
2, the majority of constituency polls he's been revealing of late are in Scotland. This seems a little bit like mischief-making, whereby he's only revealing those polls that are problematic for Labour.

But, broadly, I agree. The polls are a little bit volatile of late, but don't really break out of the long-run trend of putting the Tories and Labour more-or-less neck-and-neck. What matters is what goes on in the 80 to 100 marginals, and especially the CON-LAB marginals.

Ashcroft has his own agenda , perhaps he thinks more voters than otherwise will vote tactically in the marginals if they know they can influence the outcome.

 

[Machiavelli]

How many seats will change hands in 2015? Only twice in the elections since 1950 have more than 100 seats changed hands. In 1997, it was 184 seats, and in 2010 it was 115 seats. So it’s a reasonable to expect about 100 seats will change hands in the next election. If 100 seats change hands, it means that 550 seats will remain the same, 85% of the seats will have an MP selected, not elected.http://radicalsoapbox.com/85-votes-worthless/

Sad that for 85% of us, our once every 5 year vote to decide who governs us is worthless. Whatever the downside to PR, surely we can do better than this ?

The changes being referred to are those seats that swing from one party to another. MPs stand down, in addition, so the number of new MPs will be higher.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

How many seats will change hands in 2015? Only twice in the elections since 1950 have more than 100 seats changed hands. In 1997, it was 184 seats, and in 2010 it was 115 seats. So it’s a reasonable to expect about 100 seats will change hands in the next election. If 100 seats change hands, it means that 550 seats will remain the same, 85% of the seats will have an MP selected, not elected.http://radicalsoapbox.com/85-votes-worthless/

Sad that for 85% of us, our once every 5 year vote to decide who governs us is worthless. Whatever the downside to PR, surely we can do better than this ?

Very good post. Whatever one thinks about UKIP, it is absurd that they could conceivably end up with 15% of the total vote and gain a couple of MP's whilst the liberals may gain half that number of votes and return around 30 to 40 MP's.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Babe magnet strikes again

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-england-32381063

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I doubt Farage's 1 or 2 MP's will make much difference to forming a coalition and Cameron's only hope is the LibDems prop him up if they have enough seats, if the DUP do then you get the same scenario as what they're saying about Labour and the SNP and Cameron etc would never be hypocritical and do that would they ?

The DUP are a Unionist Party, the SNP are a Party who want Scotland to leave the UK.

How can this be the same scenario?

 

[red keith]

I wonder if Nicola Sturgeon will appoint Ed Milliband as her deputy PM if Labour win most seats?

 

[Triggaaar]

Babe magnet strikes again

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-england-32381063

Is that all he is though? It's all well and good smashing a bride to be in a coach while her mates wait outside, but is that what we want from the country's leader?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Is that all he is though? It's all well and good smashing a bride to be in a coach while her mates wait outside, but is that what we want from the country's leader?

One of many strings to his bow

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Populus was the first of the polls to be released today , I wonder why it wasn't posted by [MENTION=36]Titanic[/MENTION] ?

LAB moves to 2% lead with Populus
Lab 34 (nc) Con 32 (-1) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 15 (+1)

Because Soggy populous were shown why they are worthless 1000 posts ago while you were still out catching cod, do keep up