Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

[darkwolf666]

Education was covered on LBC this afternoon. A report in the NY Times based on a scientific study of 50,000 kids showed that they are not super spreaders, under 10’s don’t appear to spread the virus at all. Full credit to Starmer for not party politicising this particular point.

In so many ways kids need school. Already schools have reported that significant numbers have simply never returned since March, not 16 year olds, disappeared off the radar. Mental health, friendships, education (the poor don’t all have laptops for every kid), structure to their day and week.

Yep, understand all that, though when you look at the figures for 10-19 year olds, since September there has been a massive spike in the numbers. Clearly the return to university was a problem with the number of people infected...

If the truth is that children don't spread it, then where the hell are upwards of half a million people getting the virus from each week?

 

[Weststander]

Yep, understand all that, though when you look at the figures for 10-19 year olds, since September there has been a massive spike in the numbers. Clearly the return to university was a problem with the number of people infected...

If the truth is that children don't spread it, then where the hell are upwards of half a million people getting the virus from each week?

I’m talking specifically about school age kids.

Kids deserve and need school. Without it there’s a huge adverse on their mental health, without even evaluating how the have-nots are missing out on their education.

Keir Starmer and the government are right about this particular issue.

We can argue about this forever. We’ll find out by mid December if this new lockdown has contained the virus.

 

[darkwolf666]

I’m talking specifically about school age kids.

Kids deserve and need school. Without it there’s a huge adverse on their mental health, without even evaluating how the have-nots are missing out on their education.

Keir Starmer and the government are right about this particular issue.

We can argue about this forever. We’ll find out by mid December if this new lockdown has contained the virus.

I guess I am hyper sensitive about this, as I can't stand the thought that our little one, when he starts school next September, could bring the virus back into our home, potentially exposing my wife to a killer!

Hopefully by next September things will look very different!

 

[happypig]

"Where is this virus spreading ? Pubs ?"
"not really, no. It's schools and universities"
"Right, we'll close the golf clubs then"

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

A friend has just been emailed by her teachers union for the 3rd time in 24 hours telling her to email her MP to demand school closures.

 

[beorhthelm]

funny thing about teachers unions kicking up a fuss is nothing has changed for their members. the risk will be the same (or lower) as before lockdown II was announced, were they calling to close schools last week?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

funny thing about teachers unions kicking up a fuss is nothing has changed for their members. the risk will be the same (or lower) as before lockdown II was announced, were they calling to close schools last week?

Don’t think it stopped did it?

 

[Poojah]

I guess I am hyper sensitive about this, as I can't stand the thought that our little one, when he starts school next September, could bring the virus back into our home, potentially exposing my wife to a killer!

Hopefully by next September things will look very different!

I've got two kids at school, six and four, and I'll be honest it does make me a little uncomfortable - particularly when they come home and start shouting excitedly a couple of inches from your face. There comes a degree of acceptance that there's not really much you can do about it; if they bring it home they bring it home. No one in our household fits the basic risk critria, but then you never know if you're going to be one of those unlucky, young(ish!) people who have some unknown predisposition to the virus.

I absolutely think it's incrediby important that children have access to school, however my worry is that we simply won't be able to get the situation under control while they remain open. You would of course expect that shutting pubs and restaurants will have some limiting effect on transmission of the virus, however schools are basically the one mainstream environment where social distancing cannot be implemented. It's a well meaning intention to keep the schools open, however it just feels like an exercise in futility to me. It can be no coincidence that the surge in cases began in earnest when the kids went back to school.

One of my biggest frustrations with this government's handling of this crisis is their unwillingness to accept uncomfortable truths and act bravely and swiftly - that means taking action before the figures get out of hand. It's about being willing to be unpopular in the moment in order to be popular in hindsight.

On 30th July, we reported 846 new cases. On that same day, Australia reported 721 - pound for pound factoring in population size that's an infection rate almost three times as high as the UK. Today, we reported over 23,000 whilst the Aussie's reported zero - zero ffs. I accept that there are some unique differences between the UK and Australia in terms of its geography and the distribution of its population, but ultimately that's a result of two very different approaches taken. Australia had a small problem (by our current standards) in the state of Victoria and so they locked down, and locked down hard. Grossly unpopular with the state's people at the time I believe, but the results speak for themselves.

In my logical (though admittedly non-scientific) opinon, the realisation will come at some point that schools have to close. And when they do, they'll have to close for longer than they would have done if we'd have done so many weeks ago, and with no robust plan for proper home learning despite having had the best part of a year to plan for such an event.

I really can't be arsed to get into politics, but I do believe that in time history will cast a dim, dim view on our handling of this incredibly difficult but clearly not insurmountable challenge. As far as I can tell, the only exit plan now rests on an effective vaccine - if that doesn't arrive by the Spring we're regrettably going to be in a whole world of pain. I hope and I pray that it does.

 

[darkwolf666]

I’m not sure anyone has mentioned it, but I wonder if the timing of the lockdown, finishing as it’s supposed to, 2 weeks or so before schools break up for Christmas, is a coincidence, or plan?

The Christmas school holidays should create another dip in infections, hot on the heels of Lockdown 2, so effectively 4 weeks (minimum) at lockdown rates, possibly 2 weeks of rise when/if people return to work, etc., closely followed by 2 weeks of school shut and a lot of people off work for Christmas shut downs... so potentially 6 out of 8 weeks with some intervention!

 

[Poojah]

I’m not sure anyone has mentioned it, but I wonder if the timing of the lockdown, finishing as it’s supposed to, 2 weeks or so before schools break up for Christmas, is a coincidence, or plan?

The Christmas school holidays should create another dip in infections, hot on the heels of Lockdown 2, so effectively 4 weeks (minimum) at lockdown rates, possibly 2 weeks of rise when/if people return to work, etc., closely followed by 2 weeks of school shut and a lot of people off work for Christmas shut downs... so potentially 6 out of 8 weeks with some intervention!

I'd love to think there was a plan but the very pickle we find ourselves in is a result of reactivity rather than proactivity - I find it hard to believe that there is a coherent strategy underway.

What happens at Christmas is a real worry for me. I'd love to be wrong but I'm struggling to see a scenario where we can have reasonably safe, multi-generational family gatherings as we may have done in the summer. Realistically, with the full-on lockdown we had first time around it took the best part of four months before we could do that; this lockdown is much softer and therefore cannot be expected to work as quickly. Track and trace apps my help slightly, but even then they're dependent upon compliance.

And on the subject of compliance, Christmas is going to be a real test of that. It's certainly possible that it may be 'safe' to have a degree of social mixing in some pockets of the country, but it's a very difficult political message to say that the South can have Christmas but you Northern monkey's can't. One of the reasons the first lockdown worked was its simplicity; essentially stay at home, don't meet with anyone outside your household. That same message at Christmas isn't going to be popular, but anything wishy-washy is almost certainly going to be abused by the large swathes of society who are so drained and fatigued by all of this.

But the sad fact is, if multi-generational family gatherings happen on-masse across the country whilst prevelance remains anything like it is now, January is going to be an absolutely grim month.

 

[beorhthelm]

Andy Burnham trying very hard to take a CJTC award, week or so after demanding they dont have extra restrictions in Manchester, must keep their pubs and restaurants open, now says schools must shut.

 

[sparkie]

Andy Burnham trying very hard to take a CJTC award, week or so after demanding they dont have extra restrictions in Manchester, must keep their pubs and restaurants open, now says schools must shut.

#TheKingOfTheNorth

 

[Weststander]

Andy Burnham trying very hard to take a CJTC award, week or so after demanding they dont have extra restrictions in Manchester, must keep their pubs and restaurants open, now says schools must shut.

What does he know that Keir Starmer doesn’t?

 

[keaton]

Andy Burnham trying very hard to take a CJTC award, week or so after demanding they dont have extra restrictions in Manchester, must keep their pubs and restaurants open, now says schools must shut.

I'm not sure I understand vwhy that would generate such anger. I don't think he argued against Manchester going into lockdown rather them needing more money than the government would offer. Oddly the government found the funds to do it nationwide but had refused Manchester and Wales this previously.
He also argued against that regional lockdowns weren't the best way of dealing with it unless the way in and out was clear.
And if we're going into lockdown there's an argument we should be closing schools and universities,I don't see how that comes close to CJTC award with the present field of competitors

 

[Bold Seagull]

“It is the height of absurdity that [Keir Starmer] stands up and attacks the economic consequences of the measures we are obliged to take across some parts of the country when he wants to turn the lights out with a full national lockdown.“

BJ - 21.10.20

 

[Bold Seagull]

Andy Burnham trying very hard to take a CJTC award, week or so after demanding they dont have extra restrictions in Manchester, must keep their pubs and restaurants open, now says schools must shut.

Yeah Andy Burnham is the real issue to focus on at the moment.

 

[beorhthelm]

I'm not sure I understand vwhy that would generate such anger. I don't think he argued against Manchester going into lockdown rather them needing more money than the government would offer.

oh yes he did, saying the pubs and hospitality were very important to life of the city and shouldn't close, citing lack evidence they're significant cause of spread (and hes right there). once the decision was made, he switched to wanting more money, which he got but wanted more (played a great one in public, got same package as other authorities). he argued regional lockdown wasn't fair, not that it was not a good way to deal with spread.

 

[vegster]

“It is the height of absurdity that [Keir Starmer] stands up and attacks the economic consequences of the measures we are obliged to take across some parts of the country when he wants to turn the lights out with a full national lockdown.“

BJ - 21.10.20

And, at that point in time the official SAGE position that a " Two week circuit breaker lockdown" was all that was required... Now its a longer one month lockdown because of Johnson's dithering.

 

[beorhthelm]

And, at that point in time the official SAGE position that a " Two week circuit breaker lockdown" was all that was required... Now its a longer one month lockdown because of Johnson's dithering.

the Sage advice was 2-3 weeks or until the R rate was a target 0.8. that was major criticism of the advice, it was open ended. Wales and Scotland both following similar advice extended duration after starting their equivalents. we are not at the predicted R rate or hospital admission either, so ahead of their projections (local lockdown was having effect)

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Johnson announced a lockdown last time, whereas he is putting this to Parliament on Wednesday. I've already seen his ardent followers like Esther McVey saying they will vote against it, so it may be well be defeated, and Johnson will then have a perfect excuse to say it wasn't his fault.