[Football] For sale, Crystal Palace FC, asking price £210m, worth £700m within 5 years...a steal?

[El Presidente]

https://www.cityam.com/crystal-palace-hawked-for-sale-in-210m-deal/

Having been sent the Newcastle sales brochure last week, which looks as if it had been put together by a bunch of teenagers sniffing glue, the people putting it together were banking on European football within five years on an annual net spend of £15 million.

I would love to see the pitch for Palace that is claiming to treble your money within five years.

As some of you know I was asked to value the club on behalf of a prospective buyer a couple of months ago, and the present asking price is in the right ballpark IMO.



https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2019/05/03/man-city-overtake-man-united-as-premier-leagues-most-valuable-club/

 

[Justice]

If I had a spare £200m My first appointment would be Dave Hockaday as first team manager. Sell Zaha in January to get some money back and then relax and watch the Nigel’s implode.

 

[Change at Barnham]

Based on the report it also looks like £300m for Newcastle is reasonable. That is unless the new buyer inherits any tax liability for previous accounting errors that was investigated.

 

[beorhthelm]

is this sort of thing really aimed at investors or fans? i'd have thought a investor with £200m would see through such grandiose claims.

 

[Simster]

Looking at that link, I am astonished that Burnley's valuation is so much higher than some much bigger cliubs. Why is that [MENTION=31]El Presidente[/MENTION]?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Looking at that link, I am astonished that Burnley's valuation is so much higher than some much bigger cliubs. Why is that?

Two words. Ashley. Barnes.

 

[Simster]

Two words. Ashley. Barnes.

Two words: European Football


(valuation was from last year, but even so...)

 

[Bozza]

https://www.cityam.com/crystal-palace-hawked-for-sale-in-210m-deal/

Having been sent the Newcastle sales brochure last week, which looks as if it had been put together by a bunch of teenagers sniffing glue, the people putting it together were banking on European football within five years on an annual net spend of £15 million.

I would love to see the pitch for Palace that is claiming to treble your money within five years.

As some of you know I was asked to value the club on behalf of a prospective buyer a couple of months ago, and the present asking price is in the right ballpark IMO.

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2019/05/03/man-city-overtake-man-united-as-premier-leagues-most-valuable-club/

So, Palace are worth £22m less than they were four years ago?

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/content.php?508-How-much-is-promotion-worth

 

[nwgull]

is this sort of thing really aimed at investors or fans? i'd have thought a investor with £200m would see through such grandiose claims.

You've surely seen the state of some of these far-eastern owners who think all you have to do to get a Championship club promoted to the Premier League, or to turn a lower table Premier League club into Champions' League winners, is to buy a couple of multi-million pound attacking players and appoint a foreign manager with a fancy name?

 

[Bozza]

Looking at that link, I am astonished that Burnley's valuation is so much higher than some much bigger cliubs. Why is that [MENTION=31]El Presidente[/MENTION]?

Pretty sure I said the same the first time this was posted here, but I can't find the thread now. The devil is in the valuation detail, I guess...

The valuation method is broadly based on the Markham Multivariate Model created by Dr Tom Markham, who presently is a senior executive for Sports Interactive, creators of Football Manager.

The model takes into consideration revenue, profits, non-recurring costs, average profits on player sales over a three-year period (which ties into how the Premier League calculates profits for Financial Fair Play purposes), net assets, wage control and proportion of seats sold.

The figures are derived from the financial statements sent to Companies House.

The model has been revised since 2017 to take into consideration some of the more complex ownership issues arising in the Premier League.

The model assumes that the club retains its position in the Premier League. For those clubs that have subsequently been relegated to the Championship realistic values are 60-70% lower.

The formula used is

((R+A) x ((R+P-NR+D)/R) x C)/W where

R = Revenue
A = Net Assets
P = Profit
NR = Non-recurring items
D = Average player profit over last three years
C = Average attendance/ Stadium Capacity
W = Wages/Revenue​

...I still don't believe Burnley would actually. sell for more than all of Everton, Leicester, West Ham and Newcastle.

 

[studio150]

It would seem that the sales pitch contains more jokes than an entire series of Miranda.

Palace have a realistic chance of European qualification

 

[El Presidente]

Looking at that link, I am astonished that Burnley's valuation is so much higher than some much bigger cliubs. Why is that [MENTION=31]El Presidente[/MENTION]?

It's the question I am asked most frequently in respect of the research. In 2017/18 Burnley finished 7th in the Premier League and qualified for the Europa League, their wage bill however was the third lowest in the division and so they made a lot of money that year, which boosted the valuation. Burnley have a very strict wage policy, with the first team squad all being within £5,000 a week of one another and from a pure business point of view this works...and they've got Ashley Barnes.

 

[El Presidente]

...I still don't believe Burnley would actually. sell for more than all of Everton, Leicester, West Ham and Newcastle.

They wouldn't, it's an anomaly of the model (which has quite a few imperfections but was 99.9% accurate for the Arsenal takeover the previous year). It does show that Burnley are extremely well run, their owners haven't put in a dime since buying the club many years ago.

 

[El Presidente]

So, Palace are worth £22m less than they were four years ago?

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/content.php?508-How-much-is-promotion-worth

On the back of paying Zaha, Sako, Benteke and Meyer over £100,000 a week, they probably are.

 

[El Presidente]

So, Palace are worth £22m less than they were four years ago?

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/content.php?508-How-much-is-promotion-worth

Having looked at the numbers in a bit more detail, the main reason for the fall in Palace's value is their wage/income ratio has increased from 51% to 78%. UEFA's view that any club that has a wage control ratio exceeding 70% is a cause for concern.

 

[Uter]

https://www.cityam.com/crystal-palace-hawked-for-sale-in-210m-deal/

Having been sent the Newcastle sales brochure last week, which looks as if it had been put together by a bunch of teenagers sniffing glue, the people putting it together were banking on European football within five years on an annual net spend of £15 million.

I would love to see the pitch for Palace that is claiming to treble your money within five years.

As some of you know I was asked to value the club on behalf of a prospective buyer a couple of months ago, and the present asking price is in the right ballpark IMO.

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2019/05/03/man-city-overtake-man-united-as-premier-leagues-most-valuable-club/

The current valuation seems a bit excessive to my unqualified mind, but kind of what you might expect.

But £525m in year 3 and £700m in year 5! WTAF!! What on earth are they planning? I get that investing in the stadium will increase revenue, but I'd have though not even competing in the CL in a regular basis would necessarily lead to that sort of growth. They just seem ludicrous projections.

 

[Hugo Rune]

View attachment 115870

This is a great graph!

Really shows that if you have a huge income (boosted by Champions League participation), you can get close to a 50% of income spend on wages.

If you don’t have that top six income, you have to be a very very well run club to get near to the 50% and survive.

Alternatively, the 78% stat shows a complete basket case of a club heading for disaster unless they can cash in their assets and reduce their inflated wages any time soon.

 

[rogersix]

Having looked at the numbers in a bit more detail, the main reason for the fall in Palace's value is their wage/income ratio has increased from 51% to 78%. UEFA's view that any club that has a wage control ratio exceeding 70% is a cause for concern.

View attachment 115870

View attachment 115871

Blimey. Saints down looks scary. I had wondered how b muff were doing it, and that's how, but for how much longer?

 

[Triggaaar]

If I had a spare £200m My first appointment would be Dave Hockaday as first team manager. Sell Zaha in January to get some money back and then relax and watch the Nigel’s implode.

Similar, but I wouldn't want to take risks, so after some careful consideration, I think I'd appoint myself as first team manager.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Oh look [MENTION=23111]Dougie[/MENTION] apparently Palace ARE for sale and Parish IS willing to dilute his stake. I'm sure someone not to far from here told you this might happen

Presumably, by the way, offers of 2.1 million will actually be acceptable?