[Football] For sale, Crystal Palace FC, asking price £210m, worth £700m within 5 years...a steal?

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

I’m no maths genius but surely with Wilf valued at £210million on his tod then getting the whole club, Sainsbury’s local, Fanatics bongo band and the awful bogs for the same dough...including the bolly eyed turf magnet...it’s a steal!,

Can’t we crowdfund a buyout. I’m in for a quid...as long as I can have Parishs wig.

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

I can't help thinking that Newcastle would be a fantastic investment for anyone who was prepared to run it the right way. One-club city, big, loyal fanbase - it's amazing that it has underachieved for so long. Ditto Leeds.

 

[Triggaaar]

It's the question I am asked most frequently in respect of the research. In 2017/18 Burnley finished 7th in the Premier League and qualified for the Europa League, their wage bill however was the third lowest in the division and so they made a lot of money that year, which boosted the valuation.

I get the feeling it disproportionately boosted their valuation. They did exceptionally well with a cheap squad, but they're not going to be repeating that regularly, so it's not a great representation of future profits and therefore value.

Burnley have a very strict wage policy, with the first team squad all being within £5,000 a week of one another and from a pure business point of view this works

I'm also not convinced that policy simply 'works', it's just that it's been going well for them for the last few years.

I expect when you redo your calculations in a couple of years, you'll value Burnley a fair bit lower.

 

[AmexRuislip]

Oh look [MENTION=23111]Dougie[/MENTION] apparently Palace ARE for sale and Parish IS willing to dilute his stake. I'm sure someone not to far from here told you this might happen

Presumably, by the way, offers of 2.1 million will actually be acceptable?

Probably being a bit harsh here , but did you originally type 21 million, then as you posted, a speck of dirt managed to squeeze it's way onto your post

 

[Stat Brother]

At least the new stand, work on which started almost a year ago, will be complete before the deal is finalised.

 

[marcos3263]

At least the new stand, work on which started almost a year ago, will be complete before the deal is finalised.

I just checked on the webcam, its hard to see the new bits through the scaffold and cladding but it will look lovely

 

[Taybha]

You do get a drum thrown in so it's not a bad deal really .

 

[loz]

Oh look [MENTION=23111]Dougie[/MENTION] apparently Palace ARE for sale and Parish IS willing to dilute his stake. I'm sure someone not to far from here told you this might happen

Presumably, by the way, offers of 2.1 million will actually be acceptable?

I would have thought every football club is "up for sale" at the right price, doesn't really mean they are up for sale or are even thinking about it. Being that the yanks are investors and are there to make money, I am sure they have been willing / wanting to sell from the moment they invested...ie clue in the name, investors.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I would have thought every football club is "up for sale" at the right price, doesn't really mean they are up for sale or are even thinking about it. Being that the yanks are investors and are there to make money, I am sure they have been willing / wanting to sell from the moment they invested...ie clue in the name, investors.

I think you'll find some clubs are a lot more up for sale than others. For example, Palace are a lot more up for sale than Brighton.

 

[Murray 17]

Two words. Ashley. Barnes.

As I understand it, an asset is only worth what someone will pay for it (if it is for sale at all). Ashley Barnes is 30 this month. I can't see anyone bidding for him, because it would take silly money to get him. It would need one of the top 6 to pay a lot of money, for a player that probably wouldn't fit their style of play.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

 

[Guinness Boy]

Probably being a bit harsh here , but did you originally type 21 million, then as you posted, a speck of dirt managed to squeeze it's way onto your post

I think you'll find that when their third Administration becomes inevitable the Yanks will be offering one penny in the pound

 

[El Presidente]

I get the feeling it disproportionately boosted their valuation. They did exceptionally well with a cheap squad, but they're not going to be repeating that regularly, so it's not a great representation of future profits and therefore value.

I'm also not convinced that policy simply 'works', it's just that it's been going well for them for the last few years.

I expect when you redo your calculations in a couple of years, you'll value Burnley a fair bit lower.

Agree totally. 2018/19 will be good due to Europa Cup but I suspect 19/20 will knock them down to well below £300m

 

[Se20]

On the back of paying Zaha, Sako, Benteke and Meyer over £100,000 a week, they probably are.

I would think 2, possibly 3, of those, won’t be with us next season.

 

[Se20]

I think you'll find some clubs are a lot more up for sale than others. For example, Palace are a lot more up for sale than Brighton.

You’re probably right.
Not many would buy a club with a £300 mill debt.

 

[zefarelly]

Pretty sure I said the same the first time this was posted here, but I can't find the thread now. The devil is in the valuation detail, I guess...

The valuation method is broadly based on the Markham Multivariate Model created by Dr Tom Markham, who presently is a senior executive for Sports Interactive, creators of Football Manager.

The model takes into consideration revenue, profits, non-recurring costs, average profits on player sales over a three-year period (which ties into how the Premier League calculates profits for Financial Fair Play purposes), net assets, wage control and proportion of seats sold.

The figures are derived from the financial statements sent to Companies House.

The model has been revised since 2017 to take into consideration some of the more complex ownership issues arising in the Premier League.

The model assumes that the club retains its position in the Premier League. For those clubs that have subsequently been relegated to the Championship realistic values are 60-70% lower.

The formula used is

((R+A) x ((R+P-NR+D)/R) x C)/W where

R = Revenue
A = Net Assets
P = Profit
NR = Non-recurring items
D = Average player profit over last three years
C = Average attendance/ Stadium Capacity
W = Wages/Revenue​

...I still don't believe Burnley would actually. sell for more than all of Everton, Leicester, West Ham and Newcastle.

MAybe the Burnley price includes the whole town and all the houses? still a bit high though.

 

[Arkwright]

I would think 2, possibly 3, of those, won’t be with us next season.

You are probably right however 2 or 3 could easily be replaced by 3 or 4 earning in excess of £100k per week, that's clearly how Palace operate.

 

[Triggaaar]

Agree totally.

I'm confused. Did you not come up with the valuation? Apologies if you didn't. I (thanks to my vast knowledge regarding the value of football clubs) am suggesting that you (due to your cute naivety regarding the value of football clubs) have over-valued them.

Are you suggesting that your value was right at the time, but will fall? If so, presumably that means they'll have creamed off massive profits in the period between valuations? Otherwise, how would you explain the difference in valuations?

Thanks
x

 

[Dougie]

You’re probably right.
Not many would buy a club with a £300 mill debt.

tea spat

 

[andy1980]

tea spat

You do know Brighton doesn't have a £300m debt.

 

[loz]

You do know Brighton doesn't have a £300m debt.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...sh-football/&usg=AOvVaw0K7gZGb6jtjrI9h5APFqGI