First sub 2 hour marathon

[Greg Bobkin]

105 or so times around the track. Not only extremely tedious but would have to specially train to cope with permanent left leaning around bends!

Quite. But having since checked "The Ghost Runner" (great book if you've not read it), they used to run 50- and 100-mile races around tracks, so I'm guessing 26 and a bit would be a relative doddle. Just interested to see the comparison in times, really.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I think it could take some time. Sunday's conditions were pretty much perfect, on the fastest course in the world

Agree, it is a very fast course and the climate is usually as good as it can get (cool and still) for marathons but Sunday was relatively windy I heard? And yes the pace of the elite runners is astonishing to see. As for the Kenyans being so far ahead I have not looked at this season's fields in great detail but the elite runners do not run every Major and the 'season' is over a 2 year cycle. It may have been the case that, of the elite runners, only the Kenyans choose Berlin instead of say Chicago and/or New York which are coming up very soon. Runners can tactically choose their races......and sponsorship plays a part as well. As an example I think Haile Gebrselassie only entered the NYC marathon once and even that was not until as late as 2010.

Good job your son choose this year as next year it will be more difficult to get in as they will have a ballot for the first time.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Quite. But having since checked "The Ghost Runner" (great book if you've not read it), they used to run 50- and 100-mile races around tracks, so I'm guessing 26 and a bit would be a relative doddle. Just interested to see the comparison in times, really.

100 miles around a 400m track? Jeeez. Hard core. Curves generally slow you down though so would a 400m track be faster than a marathon run on a fast road course?

 

[Greg Bobkin]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/24418508

Tough ask in Mo's career, if you ask me.

 

[desprateseagull]

a lot depends on the course, altitude, hudity etc.. but i reckon by 2020 Olympics.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/24418508

Tough ask in Mo's career, if you ask me.

Very tough given he has not run a marathon yet. But, I admire his ambition. Having just read the link I simply cannot get my head around this paragraph:

Coe, who won the 1500m Olympic titles in 1980 and 1984, explained: "With the risk of this sounding like a maths tutorial, the arithmetic of a sub two hour marathon is both instructive and quite sobering. You've got to run four minutes thirty five seconds per mile over the course......"

 

[Stoichkov]

The mathematics of the current WR and a sub-2hr are mental. I struggle to get my head around them

I'm sure it'll be done but I don't think it'll happen in my lifetime.

Apart from a couple of sporadic lowerings, the WR has only been dominated by East Africa for the last 10 years or so. I reckon sports science still is on a learning curve with that specific regions anatomy. Once fully understood, we'll see that WR lowered even further

 

[Mo Gosfield]

You see a certain amount of natural progression in Athletic World Records and then..bang...a phenomenon comes along and blows the record to pieces. Beamon in the long jump, Johnson in the 200m and Bolt in the 100m/200m.
Forget Flo-Jo and umpteen East German and Chinese women ( and the legendary Kratochvilova ) These were all ' artificial ' records. Just acknowledge the special ones.
There could be that special marathon runner just around the corner.

 

[Shropshire Seagull]

Need to read the "Myth of Talent" by Matthew Syed.
Last chapter is very interesting in terms of Kenyan middle / long distance runners and why they are so good.

 

[seagullmouse]

No way Mo will do it, he doesn't even have the world records at 5k and 10k.

50 years til it happens

 

[nwgull]

No way Mo will do it, he doesn't even have the world records at 5k and 10k.

50 years til it happens

Would love to see it but would even be surprised if it happens in the next 50 years. Records have fallen sharply in distance running since it has become so financially rewarding. This has motivated and enabled athletes to be full time runners - particularly athletes from African countries, where the majority of the most naturally talented distance runners come from. It's no surprise that minutes have been take off of it regularly over the past few years, I just think that the recent record is fairly close to the limit of human performance now.

 

[Lord Bamber]

With yesterday's breaking of the marathon world record the time is now down to 02:03:23. I wonder how long it will be before we see the first sub-2 hour record? Some crude (and linear) extrapolation from the 1985 time suggests 28 years. But this possibly ignores advances in science etc. Hopefully it will be in my life time.

I think it will absolutely happen, and a lot sooner than people are suggesting. Bear in mind that there is no true 'World Record' in the marathon - due to the different conditions inherent in each marathon route, there is only a 'World Best'. What I think will happen, is that when the 2 hour barrier gets seriously threatened (let's say 2.01.50 for argument's sake) then there will be a big element of competition between the race hosts, to be the one that witnesses the breakthrough.

At that point, they will start to devise optimum routes / conditions, to make the feat more achievable. If athletes can run 2.04.00 over tarmac and cobbles, with undulating surfaces, and uphill sections, then what could they do over the requisite distance, run on track-like conditions, with no gradients, no wind, etc.

It will definitely happen in my lifetime. That is if i live for another 20 years at least. If i die tomorrow then no, it wont happen in my lifetime.

Some good points by HKFC but picking up on one regarding the competition. When the sub 2hr gets close, say 2hrs 1 min or even 2, then a number of athletes will just devote themselves to being the first man to break it. They will sacrifice olympic and world medals for the sake of the goal. There whole schedules will be devoted to this. Just like Roger Bannister, Wes Santee & John Landy spent 2 years aiming to break it, they devoted themselves to this one achievement. This and the fact the competition in races will hot up, will take time of the record itself.

I predict in 2025 the world marathon record will go sub 2hrs.

If I am wrong, feel free to come back on and laugh at me.

Great thread Herr!

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Blood spinning.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Does the financial reward not perhaps hinder attempts to get close to two hours though?

I remember when Sergey Bubka was the undisputed king of the pole vault world back in, what, the late 1980s and early 1990s. He was so supreme, he won almost every time.

When he competed at (non Olympic) meetings, the sponsors used to offer athletes substantial financial rewards for breaking world records, but they got paid exactly the same whether they smashed it by miles, or nudged it forward by a few millimetres. So it was in Bubka's interests to only go, say, one centimetre higher each time. He was easily capable of going ten, twenty centimetres higher in one go, but he wanted (understandably, as a Soviet athlete) to get paid regular wads of cash. Ten times fifty thousand is a lot easier on the bank account than one.

So perhaps the marathon runners are conscious of that too? Maybe someone could go three seconds faster in one go, or maybe he'd rather reap the rewards of running one second faster three times.

(I have no idea if that's the case with runners, but I know Bubka admitted to doing it).

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It will definitely happen in my lifetime. That is if i live for another 20 years at least. If i die tomorrow then no, it wont happen in my lifetime.

Some good points by HKFC but picking up on one regarding the competition. When the sub 2hr gets close, say 2hrs 1 min or even 2, then a number of athletes will just devote themselves to being the first man to break it. They will sacrifice olympic and world medals for the sake of the goal. There whole schedules will be devoted to this. Just like Roger Bannister, Wes Santee & John Landy spent 2 years aiming to break it, they devoted themselves to this one achievement. This and the fact the competition in races will hot up, will take time of the record itself.

I predict in 2025 the world marathon record will go sub 2hrs.

If I am wrong, feel free to come back on and laugh at me.

Great thread Herr!

Very good point about runners dedicating themselves to this single record; I had not thought of this. And I wonder which race will be the chosen one? Berlin is a flat, very straight and fast course with the perfect climate and the record has been broken here 7 times I think. The guy who broke the record a few weeks ago said he still had energy in his tanks when he finished. I reckon it will be below 2:03 within a few years. Exciting times.

 

[Lord Bamber]

Very good point about runners dedicating themselves to this single record; I had not thought of this. And I wonder which race will be the chosen one? Berlin is a flat, very straight and fast course with the perfect climate and the record has been broken here 7 times I think. The guy who broke the record a few weeks ago said he still had energy in his tanks when he finished. I reckon it will be below 2:03 within a few years. Exciting times.

Berlin or Chicago would be most likely given how fast the times there are compared to elsewhere, although Chicago can be more unreliable in terms of the weather. The more I think about it the quicker I think it will happen sooner rather than later.

 

[nwgull]

You're all wrong, and I will bounce this thread in 2063 and laugh at you.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Does the financial reward not perhaps hinder attempts to get close to two hours though?

I remember when Sergey Bubka was the undisputed king of the pole vault world back in, what, the late 1980s and early 1990s. He was so supreme, he won almost every time.

When he competed at (non Olympic) meetings, the sponsors used to offer athletes substantial financial rewards for breaking world records, but they got paid exactly the same whether they smashed it by miles, or nudged it forward by a few millimetres. So it was in Bubka's interests to only go, say, one centimetre higher each time. He was easily capable of going ten, twenty centimetres higher in one go, but he wanted (understandably, as a Soviet athlete) to get paid regular wads of cash. Ten times fifty thousand is a lot easier on the bank account than one.

So perhaps the marathon runners are conscious of that too? Maybe someone could go three seconds faster in one go, or maybe he'd rather reap the rewards of running one second faster three times.

(I have no idea if that's the case with runners, but I know Bubka admitted to doing it).

Interesting. I guess this approach only works when you are so far ahead of your competitors like this Bubka chap seems to have been.

 

[teaboy]

If it happens it'll be in somewhere like Berlin, where the last few records have been set.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Interesting. I guess this approach only works when you are so far ahead of your competitors like this Bubka chap seems to have been.

Svetlana Feofaniva (sp) and then Yelena Isinbayeva after her, both did exactly the same in the women's pole vault. I personally (through work) witnessed Isinbeyeva break it FOUR times, in a two year period.